| This doesn't make good reading 16:17 - Oct 30 with 5122 views | StokieBlue |
SAGE are saying that we are going to surpass the "worst case scenario" they outlined at the start of October with regards to deaths and that it's probably already too late for a short "circuit breaker" to stop that.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-death-toll-uk-sage-second-
Any lockdown implemented now will have to be longer and stricter than the previously recommended circuit breaker.
At the same moment we have the foreigner secretary saying there won't be another national lockdown and football club owners writing letters in an attempt to get fans back into grounds.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:18 - Oct 30 with 3156 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
It's a mess and the conspiracy theorist and fact-deniers are not helping. |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:21 - Oct 30 with 3131 views | footers |
I'm not sure how long it's been in vogue with British politicians, but it generally seems when we have an Option A and an Option B that we end up creating C instead.
The Tier system isn't proving effective whatsoever, there may now be Tier 4, people are confused by what they can and can't do due to confused messaging. It's a huge mess.
Either come out in support of proper lockdowns or a series of circuit breakers, or just admit that you're happy enough to follow herd immunity and are willing to throw the vulnerable and key workers under the bus for the sake of the economy.
This 'third way' is proving, as ever, to be boll0cks. |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:28 - Oct 30 with 3096 views | bluelagos |
You know your stuff Stokie. A mate (normally sane) seems to be going down the mentalist route - claiming there is no scientific proof that lockdowns reduce deaths.
You got any links to anything that shows they do? |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:28 - Oct 30 with 3089 views | StokieBlue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:21 - Oct 30 by footers |
I'm not sure how long it's been in vogue with British politicians, but it generally seems when we have an Option A and an Option B that we end up creating C instead.
The Tier system isn't proving effective whatsoever, there may now be Tier 4, people are confused by what they can and can't do due to confused messaging. It's a huge mess.
Either come out in support of proper lockdowns or a series of circuit breakers, or just admit that you're happy enough to follow herd immunity and are willing to throw the vulnerable and key workers under the bus for the sake of the economy.
This 'third way' is proving, as ever, to be boll0cks. |
Herd immunity without a vaccine probably isn't a goer anyway:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-e
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:33 - Oct 30 with 3055 views | BloomBlue |
Although on the opposite side if they cannot find a vaccine which works, isn't herd immunity the only option? |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:34 - Oct 30 with 3058 views | bluelagos |
Half followed that news - seems to be saying that even when people have had the virus, they are not permanently immune.
Which would suggest a vaccine may be of limited use - at best we would need top ups?
Throw in the news of the different CV strain from Spain - suggesting mutations - this surely also undermines the possible effectiveness of vaccines?
So all in - the golden bullet of the vaccine is looking less and less likely? | |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:40 - Oct 30 with 3031 views | itfcjoe |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:21 - Oct 30 by footers |
I'm not sure how long it's been in vogue with British politicians, but it generally seems when we have an Option A and an Option B that we end up creating C instead.
The Tier system isn't proving effective whatsoever, there may now be Tier 4, people are confused by what they can and can't do due to confused messaging. It's a huge mess.
Either come out in support of proper lockdowns or a series of circuit breakers, or just admit that you're happy enough to follow herd immunity and are willing to throw the vulnerable and key workers under the bus for the sake of the economy.
This 'third way' is proving, as ever, to be boll0cks. |
I was in Tier 2 Essex yesterday, and went for lunch at Lakeside in one of the restaurants there - bearing in mind this is somewhere with rules against household mixing nearly every table in there was breaking the rules, (or at least appeared to be, some may have had strange circumstances, or been on 'business lunches')
It wasn't any particular demographic - of top of my head it was
- 4 60 year old women having lunch
- Mum with young kids, with 2 older ladies
- 2 sets of Asian families (4 adults and 4 kids)
- 6 18-21 year old lads
- 5 mid 20s girls
And this was in just one of the 10 or so restaurants there.
I was at a pub in Brentwood this morning, they said round the corner from them a pub was doing a bottomless Prosecco deal and was raided by police - basically told unless you can prove you are not household mixing then you either go home now or get a fine, everyone went home. A pub/club round the corner from them got a big fine for just not caring re rules.
I was amazed by how brazen it was at Lakeside in the restaurants - it was just so obvious as detailed above.
It's basically just social distancing where you can and masks (which 99% of people were complying with) - people have given up on the proper rules |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:43 - Oct 30 with 3012 views | J2BLUE |
Those who had Sars still have the T cells 17 years on.
I don't think we should be ruling it out based on that.
Just to be clear i'm not suggesting we remove all restrictions and let it play out. |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:43 - Oct 30 with 3016 views | StokieBlue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:34 - Oct 30 by bluelagos |
Half followed that news - seems to be saying that even when people have had the virus, they are not permanently immune.
Which would suggest a vaccine may be of limited use - at best we would need top ups?
Throw in the news of the different CV strain from Spain - suggesting mutations - this surely also undermines the possible effectiveness of vaccines?
So all in - the golden bullet of the vaccine is looking less and less likely? |
A few things there:
"Which would suggest a vaccine may be of limited use - at best we would need top ups?"
I think it's pretty certain that people will need a booster either yearly or two times a year, at least with the first vaccines developed. This is similar to other vaccines for some other diseases though but would be logistically challenging.
"Throw in the news of the different CV strain from Spain - suggesting mutations - this surely also undermines the possible effectiveness of vaccines?"
These variant has 6 mutations, none of which affect the vaccine in any way that the scientists can see and thus it shouldn't make any difference to the vaccine. Of course that might not always be the case, like with flu, where one vaccine doesn't cover all strains.
"So all in - the golden bullet of the vaccine is looking less and less likely?"
I wouldn't say that. Vaccines are usually designed to have a different/more targeted/stronger response than just having the virus so it's possible/likely that vaccine based herd immunity should be possible whilst non-vaccine based herd immunity might not be possible.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:47 - Oct 30 with 2983 views | bluelagos |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:43 - Oct 30 by StokieBlue |
A few things there:
"Which would suggest a vaccine may be of limited use - at best we would need top ups?"
I think it's pretty certain that people will need a booster either yearly or two times a year, at least with the first vaccines developed. This is similar to other vaccines for some other diseases though but would be logistically challenging.
"Throw in the news of the different CV strain from Spain - suggesting mutations - this surely also undermines the possible effectiveness of vaccines?"
These variant has 6 mutations, none of which affect the vaccine in any way that the scientists can see and thus it shouldn't make any difference to the vaccine. Of course that might not always be the case, like with flu, where one vaccine doesn't cover all strains.
"So all in - the golden bullet of the vaccine is looking less and less likely?"
I wouldn't say that. Vaccines are usually designed to have a different/more targeted/stronger response than just having the virus so it's possible/likely that vaccine based herd immunity should be possible whilst non-vaccine based herd immunity might not be possible.
SB |
Cheers. | |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 16:54 - Oct 30 with 2948 views | ElderGrizzly |
Indeed. Deaths are ‘locked in’ now for the next 3 to 4 weeks at this level no matter what changes we make now |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:00 - Oct 30 with 2920 views | StokieBlue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:54 - Oct 30 by ElderGrizzly |
Indeed. Deaths are ‘locked in’ now for the next 3 to 4 weeks at this level no matter what changes we make now |
Yep. 274 more deaths today which is well above their "worst case estimates" made at the start of October.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:03 - Oct 30 with 2909 views | bluefunk |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:40 - Oct 30 by itfcjoe |
I was in Tier 2 Essex yesterday, and went for lunch at Lakeside in one of the restaurants there - bearing in mind this is somewhere with rules against household mixing nearly every table in there was breaking the rules, (or at least appeared to be, some may have had strange circumstances, or been on 'business lunches')
It wasn't any particular demographic - of top of my head it was
- 4 60 year old women having lunch
- Mum with young kids, with 2 older ladies
- 2 sets of Asian families (4 adults and 4 kids)
- 6 18-21 year old lads
- 5 mid 20s girls
And this was in just one of the 10 or so restaurants there.
I was at a pub in Brentwood this morning, they said round the corner from them a pub was doing a bottomless Prosecco deal and was raided by police - basically told unless you can prove you are not household mixing then you either go home now or get a fine, everyone went home. A pub/club round the corner from them got a big fine for just not caring re rules.
I was amazed by how brazen it was at Lakeside in the restaurants - it was just so obvious as detailed above.
It's basically just social distancing where you can and masks (which 99% of people were complying with) - people have given up on the proper rules |
Brentwood is tier 2 but Lakeside, being in the Thurrock authority (rather than Essex) is still Tier 1, so the same rules as for Suffolk in Lakeside - |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:05 - Oct 30 with 2900 views | gtsb1966 |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:00 - Oct 30 by StokieBlue |
Yep. 274 more deaths today which is well above their "worst case estimates" made at the start of October.
SB |
You mean people who have died within the last 28 days of testing positive of covid. How many have actually died BECAUSE of covid. |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:06 - Oct 30 with 2877 views | itfcjoe |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:03 - Oct 30 by bluefunk |
Brentwood is tier 2 but Lakeside, being in the Thurrock authority (rather than Essex) is still Tier 1, so the same rules as for Suffolk in Lakeside - |
Thanks for that info, I’ll stop slandering it now! [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 17:07]
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:07 - Oct 30 with 2882 views | davblue |
Have all those morons who were calling for Vallance and Whitty to be sacked earlier on this month who knew better been made aware?
So many tools in this country. |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:09 - Oct 30 with 2866 views | FrimleyBlue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:05 - Oct 30 by gtsb1966 |
You mean people who have died within the last 28 days of testing positive of covid. How many have actually died BECAUSE of covid. |
Here we go. Prime example of a covididiot.
It's people like yourself that has resulted in the government holding back on another lockdown. |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:10 - Oct 30 with 2860 views | BlueBadger |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:05 - Oct 30 by gtsb1966 |
You mean people who have died within the last 28 days of testing positive of covid. How many have actually died BECAUSE of covid. |
Most likely the overwhelming majority, either directly or indirectly. [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 21:42]
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:15 - Oct 30 with 2815 views | BlueStreak |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:10 - Oct 30 by BlueBadger |
Most likely the overwhelming majority, either directly or indirectly. [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 21:42]
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Genuine question here, how are flu deaths numbers looking so far this year? Are they trending the same as orevious years or are they lower? I have no idea ofntue answer so thought I would ask. Ta. |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:22 - Oct 30 with 2770 views | BlueBadger |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:33 - Oct 30 by BloomBlue |
Although on the opposite side if they cannot find a vaccine which works, isn't herd immunity the only option? |
Depends how cool you are with thousands, nay millions dying potentially avoidable deaths.
The key to slowing spread right now is effectively testing, tracing and isolating carriers.
Something we've spunked £12bn on and are failing at. | |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:25 - Oct 30 with 2758 views | Pinewoodblue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:15 - Oct 30 by BlueStreak |
Genuine question here, how are flu deaths numbers looking so far this year? Are they trending the same as orevious years or are they lower? I have no idea ofntue answer so thought I would ask. Ta. |
Think the last two flu seasons deaths from flu have been below the average. Probably a contributing factor for Covid hoovering so many up in the spring. |  |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:29 - Oct 30 with 2732 views | StokieBlue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:22 - Oct 30 by BlueBadger |
Depends how cool you are with thousands, nay millions dying potentially avoidable deaths.
The key to slowing spread right now is effectively testing, tracing and isolating carriers.
Something we've spunked £12bn on and are failing at. |
Whilst you are certainly right about our feeble efforts to get track and trace working it seems that once cases start to rise quickly (not even exponentially) that it becomes problematic to track them all.
The Germans said yesterday that they could no longer track and trace effectively because the number of cases was too high.
Still no excuses for us not to have a working system though.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| This doesn't make good reading on 17:32 - Oct 30 with 2711 views | eireblue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:22 - Oct 30 by BlueBadger |
Depends how cool you are with thousands, nay millions dying potentially avoidable deaths.
The key to slowing spread right now is effectively testing, tracing and isolating carriers.
Something we've spunked £12bn on and are failing at. |
You say that like upgrading a few instances of MS Excel isn’t a huge win in the grand scheme of things. |  | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:32 - Oct 30 with 2708 views | BlueStreak |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:25 - Oct 30 by Pinewoodblue |
Think the last two flu seasons deaths from flu have been below the average. Probably a contributing factor for Covid hoovering so many up in the spring. |
I am by no means an expert hence why I would rather get my info from them however how many people normally die from flu each each year? I heard it was about 50k but unsure how accurate that is so don't want to speculate around it all. My very uneducated and basixlc thought on this if is it is usually around 50k, however these deaths are significantly down this year due to deaths being attributed to covid, are we a million miles away from where we would 'usually' be on deaths during the year? | | | |
| This doesn't make good reading on 17:32 - Oct 30 with 2705 views | Pinewoodblue |
| This doesn't make good reading on 16:40 - Oct 30 by itfcjoe |
I was in Tier 2 Essex yesterday, and went for lunch at Lakeside in one of the restaurants there - bearing in mind this is somewhere with rules against household mixing nearly every table in there was breaking the rules, (or at least appeared to be, some may have had strange circumstances, or been on 'business lunches')
It wasn't any particular demographic - of top of my head it was
- 4 60 year old women having lunch
- Mum with young kids, with 2 older ladies
- 2 sets of Asian families (4 adults and 4 kids)
- 6 18-21 year old lads
- 5 mid 20s girls
And this was in just one of the 10 or so restaurants there.
I was at a pub in Brentwood this morning, they said round the corner from them a pub was doing a bottomless Prosecco deal and was raided by police - basically told unless you can prove you are not household mixing then you either go home now or get a fine, everyone went home. A pub/club round the corner from them got a big fine for just not caring re rules.
I was amazed by how brazen it was at Lakeside in the restaurants - it was just so obvious as detailed above.
It's basically just social distancing where you can and masks (which 99% of people were complying with) - people have given up on the proper rules |
Warner Leisure Hotels have a property in Nottinghamshire there guidance is they are still open you can come if you want. When someone pointed out to them anyone living in a tier 3 area shouldn't travel unless essential, and you shouldn't stay over night wass that the guidance was to individuals, not businesses, they were not checking addresses they were leaving people to make informed decisions they were not doing anything unlawful. [Post edited 30 Oct 2020 17:36]
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