| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? 11:31 - Sep 27 with 4888 views | OriginalMarkyP |
Statistically speaking, if we were to finish 8th or 9th based on where we are now that would be a pretty good rest of the season performance.
Portsmouth finished 8th on 72pts last season in what was by most accounts a pretty poor league and not as competitive as this year's competition. We were of course 9th on 69pts.
So to match Portsmouth last season we'd need 65 pts from our remaining 38 games...bearing in mind we arguably haven't played any of the league's big hitters yet (Sunderland, Wigan, Wycombe, Portsmouth, Rotherham, Accrington etc).
That's 1.7 pts per game from now on. To get 8th.
1.7 pts per game over an entire season would get you 79 pts which is borderline automatic promotion form as the average 2nd place is 86.7, Peterborough were 2nd with 87 last year.
So applying a little logic and realism, our most likely finish if we have a very good season from Tuesday onwards is 8th. Probably 9th if we dip at all. Where we finished last year.
Is that acceptable for us?
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:32 - Sep 27 with 2422 views | Herbivore |
No. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:34 - Sep 27 with 2419 views | SomethingBlue |
No it's not remotely acceptable, and I still don't think it'll happen. But we have to start cracking on straightaway. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:37 - Sep 27 with 2396 views | JakeITFC |
Obviously isn't acceptable.
Going up via the playoffs is still very much a failure with the squad we have assembled, that is the absolute minimum that we have to achieve. |  | | |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:38 - Sep 27 with 2385 views | jayessess |
I get the feeling that sometimes people don't really understand the resources that have been chucked at this football team. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:39 - Sep 27 with 2382 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
That would have to be seen as a failure.
We should not use our current position as a benchmark for how the season is judged at the end.
Our season needs to be judged against our pre-season objectives. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:39 - Sep 27 with 2376 views | Wickets |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:37 - Sep 27 by JakeITFC |
Obviously isn't acceptable.
Going up via the playoffs is still very much a failure with the squad we have assembled, that is the absolute minimum that we have to achieve. |
Blimey ? |  | | |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:41 - Sep 27 with 2361 views | ElderGrizzly |
It would be utterly unacceptable both to the majority of fans, but importantly to the owners.
Patience is a word that has many meanings. A squad with the largest budget in the league is not acceptable to be mid-table. |  | | |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:42 - Sep 27 with 2356 views | Chrisd |
It's not acceptable with the squad we have, but for all of us getting our knickers in a twist on here about what should happen (in their own eyes), it's the message from the owners to MA and PC that is paramount, whether we like it or not. I'd be hoping that the message is we should be aiming for promotion and that is still in our hands, even though some it seems have already written off the season after 8 league games. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:45 - Sep 27 with 2335 views | ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your confidence - Town are where they are on 'merit'. They will have to improve to avoid relegation, not just 'achieve' mid-table - ie contrive to get worse than they ever were in the shambles under Lambo and 'the now departed Marcus Evans'
Personally I thnk the club has to accept wherever they finish - and also accept that turning a club with a modicum of stability and identity after years of revolving door recruitment into a franchise from top to bottom was not a particularly wise idea.....particularly with a manager who showed himself to be staggeringly inept and arrogant when given a whiff of the play-offs with a dead cat bounce.
Town will finish where they deserve to. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:48 - Sep 27 with 2318 views | Herbivore |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:45 - Sep 27 by ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your confidence - Town are where they are on 'merit'. They will have to improve to avoid relegation, not just 'achieve' mid-table - ie contrive to get worse than they ever were in the shambles under Lambo and 'the now departed Marcus Evans'
Personally I thnk the club has to accept wherever they finish - and also accept that turning a club with a modicum of stability and identity after years of revolving door recruitment into a franchise from top to bottom was not a particularly wise idea.....particularly with a manager who showed himself to be staggeringly inept and arrogant when given a whiff of the play-offs with a dead cat bounce.
Town will finish where they deserve to. |
So much edge, so little sharpness. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:50 - Sep 27 with 2300 views | Chrisd |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:45 - Sep 27 by ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your confidence - Town are where they are on 'merit'. They will have to improve to avoid relegation, not just 'achieve' mid-table - ie contrive to get worse than they ever were in the shambles under Lambo and 'the now departed Marcus Evans'
Personally I thnk the club has to accept wherever they finish - and also accept that turning a club with a modicum of stability and identity after years of revolving door recruitment into a franchise from top to bottom was not a particularly wise idea.....particularly with a manager who showed himself to be staggeringly inept and arrogant when given a whiff of the play-offs with a dead cat bounce.
Town will finish where they deserve to. |
And if we get promoted in May, would it have been a wise idea then to turn us into a franchise? | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:51 - Sep 27 with 2287 views | DanTheMan |
Nowhere near acceptable. We should be pushing top two. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:56 - Sep 27 with 2263 views | OriginalMarkyP |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:42 - Sep 27 by Chrisd |
It's not acceptable with the squad we have, but for all of us getting our knickers in a twist on here about what should happen (in their own eyes), it's the message from the owners to MA and PC that is paramount, whether we like it or not. I'd be hoping that the message is we should be aiming for promotion and that is still in our hands, even though some it seems have already written off the season after 8 league games. |
I'm not writing anything off.
I'm just trying to manage people's expectations by demonstrating the amount of points we'd need from our remaining games and the levels of performance we'd require to get those points.
It's just that some people seem to ignore statistical evidence, and just say oh it's fine, we're only 8 games in and we'll pick up enough points along the way. That is so VAGUE. And uniformed. You have to take emotion out of it and look at the statistic. And based on the points we have, and where we are, 8th would need an automatic promotion level of performance over our remaining games. To get playoffs it would need an astounding consistent level of performance. To get automatic...well, you get the idea. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 11:58]
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:00 - Sep 27 with 2239 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:45 - Sep 27 by ElephantintheRoom |
I admire your confidence - Town are where they are on 'merit'. They will have to improve to avoid relegation, not just 'achieve' mid-table - ie contrive to get worse than they ever were in the shambles under Lambo and 'the now departed Marcus Evans'
Personally I thnk the club has to accept wherever they finish - and also accept that turning a club with a modicum of stability and identity after years of revolving door recruitment into a franchise from top to bottom was not a particularly wise idea.....particularly with a manager who showed himself to be staggeringly inept and arrogant when given a whiff of the play-offs with a dead cat bounce.
Town will finish where they deserve to. |
Talksport quality right there.... |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:02 - Sep 27 with 2236 views | Ryorry |
Wow. I seem to be an oulier here. I've always seen us this season with 19 new players as transitional, us as a work in progress, and I'm prepared to be patient. But if we don't go up either this season OR next, then that would be unacceptable & a failure imho. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:03 - Sep 27 with 2224 views | Chrisd |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:56 - Sep 27 by OriginalMarkyP |
I'm not writing anything off.
I'm just trying to manage people's expectations by demonstrating the amount of points we'd need from our remaining games and the levels of performance we'd require to get those points.
It's just that some people seem to ignore statistical evidence, and just say oh it's fine, we're only 8 games in and we'll pick up enough points along the way. That is so VAGUE. And uniformed. You have to take emotion out of it and look at the statistic. And based on the points we have, and where we are, 8th would need an automatic promotion level of performance over our remaining games. To get playoffs it would need an astounding consistent level of performance. To get automatic...well, you get the idea. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 11:58]
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There's no emotion in my reply, it's looking at things logically. This continued doom and gloom outlook after 8 games is rather wearing. I'm now reading these types of posts that you're hoping we continue to struggle so you can be proved right!! I appreciate where you are coming from, but if things were all based purely on statistics we might as well finish the league now and give the title to Wigan and the runners up spot to Sunderland, but football doesn't operate like that. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:04 - Sep 27 with 2218 views | Herbivore |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:56 - Sep 27 by OriginalMarkyP |
I'm not writing anything off.
I'm just trying to manage people's expectations by demonstrating the amount of points we'd need from our remaining games and the levels of performance we'd require to get those points.
It's just that some people seem to ignore statistical evidence, and just say oh it's fine, we're only 8 games in and we'll pick up enough points along the way. That is so VAGUE. And uniformed. You have to take emotion out of it and look at the statistic. And based on the points we have, and where we are, 8th would need an automatic promotion level of performance over our remaining games. To get playoffs it would need an astounding consistent level of performance. To get automatic...well, you get the idea. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 11:58]
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8th wouldn't require automatic promotion form. 79 points does not get you automatic promotion from League 1 and by your own calculations that is the season's form we need to replicate to finish 8th, assuming 8th this season requires as many as 72 points.
Edit - genuine automatic promotion form (i.e. 87 points over a season) would see us ending up with 79 points and comfortably in the play offs. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 12:09]
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:07 - Sep 27 with 2193 views | jayessess |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:56 - Sep 27 by OriginalMarkyP |
I'm not writing anything off.
I'm just trying to manage people's expectations by demonstrating the amount of points we'd need from our remaining games and the levels of performance we'd require to get those points.
It's just that some people seem to ignore statistical evidence, and just say oh it's fine, we're only 8 games in and we'll pick up enough points along the way. That is so VAGUE. And uniformed. You have to take emotion out of it and look at the statistic. And based on the points we have, and where we are, 8th would need an automatic promotion level of performance over our remaining games. To get playoffs it would need an astounding consistent level of performance. To get automatic...well, you get the idea. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 11:58]
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Again, I don't think you've really understood the kind of resources invested in this team. Relative to the division in we've spent lavishly, we've not done that so the team peaks at just decent top 6 form. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:11 - Sep 27 with 2157 views | ElderGrizzly |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:02 - Sep 27 by Ryorry |
Wow. I seem to be an oulier here. I've always seen us this season with 19 new players as transitional, us as a work in progress, and I'm prepared to be patient. But if we don't go up either this season OR next, then that would be unacceptable & a failure imho. |
If we'd not had the investment level I agree.
But our new owners have given the club the budget to dominate. We aren't. | | | |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:12 - Sep 27 with 2152 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:50 - Sep 27 by Chrisd |
And if we get promoted in May, would it have been a wise idea then to turn us into a franchise? |
I doubt it very much on both fronts.
You have to accept that Town have just gone back in time - victims of offshore opportunists sensing a killing with very little effort.
The big difference is that last time it was an individual chancer, prepared to wait for a lottery win, until covid sent his businesses, real and imagined, into a downward spiral that made putting minimal finance into the rotting corpse of ipswich Town unsustainable - he is still of the opinion that there is easy money to be made, hence he owns as much (or as little) as the three turkey vultures.
The downside of the franchise is that none of the vultures in residence, nor in the USA have anything much to lose - they are just having a wager on other people's money, and paying themselves handsomely in the meantime - again with borrowed money. Fine for now - but at some point unknown the Ohio Property Fund will call a very quick halt to their ill-advised largesse.
Its interesting that you see promotion out of division three as an achievement. That could and should have been possible last season - and would only be the beginning of Town's problems. There's only half a dozen clubs in this division who think they belong in the Prem. There are twenty in the division above. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:12 - Sep 27 with 2145 views | BlueNomad |
Nothing other than promotion will be acceptable.
I acknowledge the stats etc but also recall our "mind the gap" bragging when we were ten points ahead of Norwich a few years ago. They went up and we failed miserably. A good run, with a couple of wins against teams at the top, would chance the picture significantly.
We need to crack on though. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 13:43]
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:12 - Sep 27 with 2143 views | OriginalMarkyP |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:04 - Sep 27 by Herbivore |
8th wouldn't require automatic promotion form. 79 points does not get you automatic promotion from League 1 and by your own calculations that is the season's form we need to replicate to finish 8th, assuming 8th this season requires as many as 72 points.
Edit - genuine automatic promotion form (i.e. 87 points over a season) would see us ending up with 79 points and comfortably in the play offs. [Post edited 27 Sep 2021 12:09]
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I did say 'borderline automatic'. But playoff form most definetly.
But pedantism aside we'd have to play bloody well and pretty consistently to finish 8th. And from where we are now that would be a very good result.
It's not where I want us to finsh, I'd like to go up as Champions obvs.
But statistically promotion is very unlikely to happen there seems to be a fair degree of La La La I'm Not Listening (automatic downvote) from quite a few on the board when you present them with the facts. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:15 - Sep 27 with 2124 views | Guthrum |
Gravely disappointed, given the money spent, the team assembled and the pedigree of the manager.
We ought, given all the above, to be able to put on a series of runs sufficient to at least make the play-offs, even with the slow start. Certainly it will require pulling things together rapidly and consistently from here. But, on paper, it should be well within our capabilities.
Indeed we've already shown a better capacity to do that than last season, were it not for a series of defensive howlers. Get rid of them (without hamstringing the attack) and we'll be in a good place. |  |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:16 - Sep 27 with 2118 views | OriginalMarkyP |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:07 - Sep 27 by jayessess |
Again, I don't think you've really understood the kind of resources invested in this team. Relative to the division in we've spent lavishly, we've not done that so the team peaks at just decent top 6 form. |
I'm not saying this to say I think this is acceptable Jayessess. I don't think it is. I'm just pointing out the facts of where we are, what points we have, and what points we can hope to achieve based on the statistical evidence.
My point is there seems to be a lot of TWTDers still expecting some miraculous promotion outcome, which statistically is not very likely.
That's why I am asking if it's acceptable. Because 8th, is PROBABLY about the best finish we'll get based on the statistics.
But granted, miracles do happen. | |
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| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 12:16 - Sep 27 with 2114 views | Garv |
| How would people feel about a midtable finish this season? on 11:37 - Sep 27 by JakeITFC |
Obviously isn't acceptable.
Going up via the playoffs is still very much a failure with the squad we have assembled, that is the absolute minimum that we have to achieve. |
Promotion via the play offs is failure? |  |
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