| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? 08:33 - Sep 2 with 5178 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Hear me out..
So my university are saying it’ll be mostly online learning again with some face to face when needed. My sports coaching course being online really doesn’t work. April - May of this year proved that. Not being allowed out to coach hinders a coaching course - obviously. Which got me thinking..
Considering how many deaths there have been in recent weeks, I wonder whether herd immunity would be the way to go with the intention being that it’s the fittest members of society such as students and adults under 40 (for example) with no health conditions being the ones to mix. A student like me is incredibly unlikely to die from Covid-19 looking at the statistics. With the daily death count being in single figures now, would it perhaps be worth opening places up and, providing it’s not a major second wave of actual deaths, letting the human immune system work its magic*. If suddenly students started to die in a rate of knots, the point has been proven and we should revert back to the current approach of basically no normal human interaction for however many years it takes. Which is sh*te but at least we would know. Some minimal risk I suppose but with high reward.
Can it be argued that it’s worth a try with the fittest members of society whilst it’s a single figure daily death count rather than possibly another year of no fans in stadiums, socially distanced pubs, university courses being significantly hindered, etc. 6 months ago things seemed very different but with the death count being almost nil per day now, is it not worth a try? Could the NHS cope if things got a bit worse? Would it cause a potential second wave? Is it worth the risk?
*Obviously this doesn’t include for the elderly or those with weaker immune systems.
Before anyone bites my head off, I’m purely thinking out loud so to speak and thought it would make an interesting, even if somewhat controversial, talking point for TWTD. I’m off to play golf in a bit so I’ll likely not reply until afterwards. I’m no medical expert obviously so I’m almost definitely wrong but it seems worth mentioning my theory. Also worth noting that just by me saying that, it doesn’t mean I’m not socially distancing and following the guidelines as we should - masks and all. Was just a topic for discussion. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 08:37 - Sep 2 with 3933 views | ElephantintheRoom |
In a word no.... at least until it is proven you actually can become immune to Covid
It might be better to just do the obvious and sit Covid out until a few thousand deaths each year are acceptable, as per flu etc - or it becomes less virulent to the more vulnerable in society - both of which might actually be happening, though not many would volunteer to prove that either. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 08:38 - Sep 2 with 3931 views | Herbivore |
There's a lot of evidence suggesting that you aren't immune from recontracting the virus once you've had it. A lot of people have had Covid twice now. That's a bit of a flaw in the plan as even if enough people have it now they could get it again in 6 months and infect others. It's also very hard to contain the virus and stop it speeding places you don't want it to spread when you let it go unchecked so inevitably deaths would increase significantly. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 08:53 - Sep 2 with 3876 views | gordon |
It'll be really difficult for lots of students in your position, who will now have to adjust to a completely different way of learning, and (my university anyway) isn't really making decisions with the best interest of it's students at heart, they are really trying to arbitrage between the financial necessities and the position of the unions/senior academics.
My university is filling up its residential colleges to the brim, and then its going to run almost exclusively online courses - to me this carries almost all of the risk in terms of potential COVID outbreaks (except to academics) and little of the benefits.
I think in your situation they could agree that the outdoor elements of your course carry very low risk so the benefits outweigh the costs.
I would say that the single figure death counts are largely because they changed the way they count deaths in England to make the number much lower; the other potential problem is the possible prevalence of long-term consequences for those who have mild - severe infections which we aren't fully aware of yet. |  | | |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:14 - Sep 2 with 3816 views | bluelagos |
Couple of issues.
Going for herd immunity seems to be high risk as it would involve significant deaths.
But, getting on with our lives, making judgements of what is high/low risk to us as individuals seems reasonable. Indeed we have opened up shops, pubs, hotels etc. The govt is trying to encourage people back to work, albeit in a safe environment.
My view would be that your Uni should be following the schools model - namely that face to face learning is preferable to online learning and that that should be the default unless there are localised outbreaks.
But we live in a risk averse society and the people making the decisions at your Uni (and many others and workplaces) are looking to eliminate/reduce risk, often without considering the risks of doing everything online. We are social animals and social interaction is important. The mental health issues, domestic violence, child abuse, suicides will all increase if we force people to stay inside.
Whatever they do is a poor choice, expose you to the risk of the virus or the risk of being (effectively) locked inside. It is a matter of choosing the least worse option and I think at a time when the virus is very low in circulation, keeping people isolated doesn't feel right to me.
But we will all have our own opinions, anxieties, circumstances. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:21 - Sep 2 with 3794 views | hype313 |
You may unlikely die from it, but more and more people are developing lasting issues even with a mild dose, so even if you are a young fit person the last thing you want is long term lung/heart/kidney damage.
Personally, I'm trying to keep as far away as possible from this thing until a vaccine arrives. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:23 - Sep 2 with 3787 views | lowhouseblue |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 08:53 - Sep 2 by gordon |
It'll be really difficult for lots of students in your position, who will now have to adjust to a completely different way of learning, and (my university anyway) isn't really making decisions with the best interest of it's students at heart, they are really trying to arbitrage between the financial necessities and the position of the unions/senior academics.
My university is filling up its residential colleges to the brim, and then its going to run almost exclusively online courses - to me this carries almost all of the risk in terms of potential COVID outbreaks (except to academics) and little of the benefits.
I think in your situation they could agree that the outdoor elements of your course carry very low risk so the benefits outweigh the costs.
I would say that the single figure death counts are largely because they changed the way they count deaths in England to make the number much lower; the other potential problem is the possible prevalence of long-term consequences for those who have mild - severe infections which we aren't fully aware of yet. |
what is your university doing in person while it has students in residence? I assume all lectures are online - but does it have other educational activities which are in person? are libraries, labs etc open on a socially distanced basis? |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 10:30 - Sep 2 with 3691 views | Guthrum |
Herd immunity - even supposing (as others have mentioned) that it actually works for more than 3 to 6 months - is a very long way off in terms of a sizeable proportion of the population having gained it.
The studies which postulated that 80% of the UK populace may have had Covid-19 were wild statistical excercises, mainly put forward (or funded) by organisations and individuals with an agenda to get business back up and running ASAP, regardless of the health risk*. The actual, real world test programmes have shown very low figures, under 5%. This means a huge number of people would have to catch the disease before we get close to HI, with possibly severe and long-term health consequences for them, not to mention the strain on the medical system and the economy.
If anything, we're perhaps still closer to being able to contain the virus to the point where it's limited to occasional, localised flare-ups (like Zika or Ebola).
Another factor is that there may be specific epidemiological reasons why younger people are currently less vulnerable to death from C-19 than the elderly**. That may change. It was the second wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic which killed many young and fit people (by causing cytokine storm in the immune system - something C-19 also does), when the first wave had only hit the more elderly and vulnerable.
* Bear in mind there's an information war swirling around this pandemic, as well as the medical struggle.
** Including partial (and temporary) immunity which some studies are showing may be conferred by a particular strain of the common cold. The elderly and infirm are less likely to mix and try to protect themselves against colds, not the case with the young. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 10:37 - Sep 2 with 3673 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
I now live in a University area. A Professor of Physics lives a few doors down from me.
He hasn't been to a pub, or eaten out to help out. He goes for a walk every day, just as he did in April. He hasn't adjusted his routine because, as a scientist, he is "following the science".
After three months I had notable anxiety symptoms. I would be livid when people didn't distance as they walked down the street. I've gradually eased myself back in, and have been to a pub once, and restaurants about 10 times now. In my work I have had to visit a few people at home. Half followed the regulations meticulously. Half took varying liberties.
I've had to reach a "new normal" that I can, just about, cope with.
My son goes back to Uni next week. House of 7. From all over the country. The numbers of inter-relationships they will build up each fortnight will be colossal. He will have to put a lot of trust in his housemates to play by the rules every single day.
I wouldn't be able to cope without treating home as a gel and mask environment.
As mentioned elsewhere: the professors will ensure that social distancing is met and all other requirements are maintained, and then trot off back to their houses. The students will not have that much control and will be utterly dependent on each other doing it right every time. In Freshers Week... | | | |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:13 - Sep 2 with 3636 views | Basuco |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 10:30 - Sep 2 by Guthrum |
Herd immunity - even supposing (as others have mentioned) that it actually works for more than 3 to 6 months - is a very long way off in terms of a sizeable proportion of the population having gained it.
The studies which postulated that 80% of the UK populace may have had Covid-19 were wild statistical excercises, mainly put forward (or funded) by organisations and individuals with an agenda to get business back up and running ASAP, regardless of the health risk*. The actual, real world test programmes have shown very low figures, under 5%. This means a huge number of people would have to catch the disease before we get close to HI, with possibly severe and long-term health consequences for them, not to mention the strain on the medical system and the economy.
If anything, we're perhaps still closer to being able to contain the virus to the point where it's limited to occasional, localised flare-ups (like Zika or Ebola).
Another factor is that there may be specific epidemiological reasons why younger people are currently less vulnerable to death from C-19 than the elderly**. That may change. It was the second wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic which killed many young and fit people (by causing cytokine storm in the immune system - something C-19 also does), when the first wave had only hit the more elderly and vulnerable.
* Bear in mind there's an information war swirling around this pandemic, as well as the medical struggle.
** Including partial (and temporary) immunity which some studies are showing may be conferred by a particular strain of the common cold. The elderly and infirm are less likely to mix and try to protect themselves against colds, not the case with the young. |
My daughter told me one of her patients, 31 no known pre-conditions, had Covid but has been left with severe problems with cognition, unable to string a simple sentence together and so weak she is unable to walk more than a few steps. Daughter has been given an initial case load of 180 cases of people with long term problems following Covid. |  | | |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:24 - Sep 2 with 3613 views | clive_baker |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:13 - Sep 2 by Basuco |
My daughter told me one of her patients, 31 no known pre-conditions, had Covid but has been left with severe problems with cognition, unable to string a simple sentence together and so weak she is unable to walk more than a few steps. Daughter has been given an initial case load of 180 cases of people with long term problems following Covid. |
I think that's a very real fear. Not so much people dying of Covid, but the longer term respiratory impact which is potentially very damaging. It's a serious thing, not to be messed with, and frankly at this stage where there are so many unknowns, prevention feels better than cure.
As for the OP, ultimately herd immunity might be the longer term answer, by virtue of the fact there are no alternatives. As this thing works its way through society over a number of years, creating some level of immunity, less carriers and therefore a slower rate of infection. Although at this stage it's unknown how long any immunity might exist for (if at all) its a fair assumption that the human body would create T cells that would reduce the likelihood of reinfection.
Ps. Rommy, don't be so damn apologetic. Its a perfectly valid topic. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:27 - Sep 2 with 3606 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
There is no guarantee that a vaccine or cure will ever be found. Herd immunity may, ultimately, be the only show in town. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:44 - Sep 2 with 3574 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 10:37 - Sep 2 by ArnoldMoorhen |
I now live in a University area. A Professor of Physics lives a few doors down from me.
He hasn't been to a pub, or eaten out to help out. He goes for a walk every day, just as he did in April. He hasn't adjusted his routine because, as a scientist, he is "following the science".
After three months I had notable anxiety symptoms. I would be livid when people didn't distance as they walked down the street. I've gradually eased myself back in, and have been to a pub once, and restaurants about 10 times now. In my work I have had to visit a few people at home. Half followed the regulations meticulously. Half took varying liberties.
I've had to reach a "new normal" that I can, just about, cope with.
My son goes back to Uni next week. House of 7. From all over the country. The numbers of inter-relationships they will build up each fortnight will be colossal. He will have to put a lot of trust in his housemates to play by the rules every single day.
I wouldn't be able to cope without treating home as a gel and mask environment.
As mentioned elsewhere: the professors will ensure that social distancing is met and all other requirements are maintained, and then trot off back to their houses. The students will not have that much control and will be utterly dependent on each other doing it right every time. In Freshers Week... |
Freshers week won't be like any previous ones though - there are no plans for group activities/ Fresher Fairs and th like at our place. But you're right in that the students will be mixing in households and (smaller than normal) cohorts.
It's not much different to the schools going back. It's going to be fascinating to see how the next 2 months goes as it will be the largest mixing we'll have had since the virus started and it's still circulating. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:53 - Sep 2 with 3555 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:27 - Sep 2 by Tangledupin_Blue |
There is no guarantee that a vaccine or cure will ever be found. Herd immunity may, ultimately, be the only show in town. |
Or eradication. But that will require sacrifices that people in the west seem unable to make. Short term sacrifices, but sacrifices nonetheless. | |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 12:25 - Sep 2 with 3527 views | Edmundo |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:21 - Sep 2 by hype313 |
You may unlikely die from it, but more and more people are developing lasting issues even with a mild dose, so even if you are a young fit person the last thing you want is long term lung/heart/kidney damage.
Personally, I'm trying to keep as far away as possible from this thing until a vaccine arrives. |
Where's the research for this? Not being demonstrative, just interested. |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 12:51 - Sep 2 with 3499 views | gordon |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:27 - Sep 2 by Tangledupin_Blue |
There is no guarantee that a vaccine or cure will ever be found. Herd immunity may, ultimately, be the only show in town. |
Herd immunity was only likely to be relevant if there is a pretty effective vaccine - if not, the disease will become endemic like influenza, with periodic outbreaks, some worse than others. | | | |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 12:57 - Sep 2 with 3480 views | gordon |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:13 - Sep 2 by Basuco |
My daughter told me one of her patients, 31 no known pre-conditions, had Covid but has been left with severe problems with cognition, unable to string a simple sentence together and so weak she is unable to walk more than a few steps. Daughter has been given an initial case load of 180 cases of people with long term problems following Covid. |
Yup, this is going to be a massive problem - the government is keen to present a binary outcome where either patients die within 28 days of a positive test, or they don't and everything is fine, but actually the complications for younger, previously healthy people may ultimately prove to be of as much consequence as e.g. the high death toll in care homes in April and May. | | | |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 13:37 - Sep 2 with 3411 views | gordon |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:23 - Sep 2 by lowhouseblue |
what is your university doing in person while it has students in residence? I assume all lectures are online - but does it have other educational activities which are in person? are libraries, labs etc open on a socially distanced basis? |
Yea, all lectures are online, some labs are going to happen in person but depends on the subject, and for those courses where there isn't a lab element, there will be almost no face-to-face contact - where it is required, they are going to try and get more PG students to do it, although there will be less around. All libraries, cafes and communal study areas are going to be very restricted, so basically most university buildings will be out of bounds to undergraduates.
Because its a big university in a small town without lots of space in cafes or council libraries etc, it's quite difficult to imagine whats going to happen, whether students are going to sit in their rooms all day on zoom, or whether they're going to do other things. I'd be gobsmacked if there wasn't COVID outbreaks, which the university intends to deal with by locking down individual colleges. To me it sounds like a recipe for disaster on all sorts of fronts. [Post edited 2 Sep 2020 13:38]
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 13:47 - Sep 2 with 3386 views | lowhouseblue |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 13:37 - Sep 2 by gordon |
Yea, all lectures are online, some labs are going to happen in person but depends on the subject, and for those courses where there isn't a lab element, there will be almost no face-to-face contact - where it is required, they are going to try and get more PG students to do it, although there will be less around. All libraries, cafes and communal study areas are going to be very restricted, so basically most university buildings will be out of bounds to undergraduates.
Because its a big university in a small town without lots of space in cafes or council libraries etc, it's quite difficult to imagine whats going to happen, whether students are going to sit in their rooms all day on zoom, or whether they're going to do other things. I'd be gobsmacked if there wasn't COVID outbreaks, which the university intends to deal with by locking down individual colleges. To me it sounds like a recipe for disaster on all sorts of fronts. [Post edited 2 Sep 2020 13:38]
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have they got you living in 'households' - so that you at least have a group you don't have to be socially distanced with. or do they treat each college as a household? locking down a whole college, assuming it is 100s of people, seems like overkill. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:12 - Sep 2 with 3308 views | Ryorry |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 11:24 - Sep 2 by clive_baker |
I think that's a very real fear. Not so much people dying of Covid, but the longer term respiratory impact which is potentially very damaging. It's a serious thing, not to be messed with, and frankly at this stage where there are so many unknowns, prevention feels better than cure.
As for the OP, ultimately herd immunity might be the longer term answer, by virtue of the fact there are no alternatives. As this thing works its way through society over a number of years, creating some level of immunity, less carriers and therefore a slower rate of infection. Although at this stage it's unknown how long any immunity might exist for (if at all) its a fair assumption that the human body would create T cells that would reduce the likelihood of reinfection.
Ps. Rommy, don't be so damn apologetic. Its a perfectly valid topic. |
I'd always thought it a cetainty that C_19 would become endemic, as to this date the scientific articles I read all said that no vaccine for any coronovirus had ever been found despite decades of trying (albeit with massively fewer resources put in till now).
However - on a BBC news or docu feature (sorry, can't recall what) a few days ago, there was a scientist saying that vets had vaccine/s for various types of coronavirus that they'd successfully been using to treat animals for many years! so research was now being put in to see if those vaccines could be adapted for human use.
On a wider note, I have to say from personal experience that the standard 2m social distancing does not work because it's insufficent. I have over the past few days picked up a virus (not *the* virus - just a cold - temperature & sense of smell normal) despite scrupulous 2m social distancing, quarantining deliveries etc. Haven't had contact with anyone indoors, everything outdoors. I reckon this means the wind direction matters greatly, and the YouTubes you see of the travel of droplets being up to 9m is correct.
Don't agree with OP for the reasons others have given, but the capacity for original thinking is always welcome Rommy 👠|  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:23 - Sep 2 with 3300 views | gordon |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 13:47 - Sep 2 by lowhouseblue |
have they got you living in 'households' - so that you at least have a group you don't have to be socially distanced with. or do they treat each college as a household? locking down a whole college, assuming it is 100s of people, seems like overkill. |
Don't know much about the particulars, I work in research and don't have much teaching responsibilities and avoid the colleges like the plague anyway. But as I understand it the university (even though we have excellent bioscience labs) isn't able to carry out testing in-house, so would be reliant on the Serco service, the nearest testing site is a couple of miles away from the uni.
I think they also assume that students aren't all going to be particularly excellent at following guidance, getting themselves tested, & reporting contacts if they've got mild symptoms, and because there are bars and communal eating space in each college, and lots of socialising is done within colleges, locking down of colleges will probably be inevitable. [Post edited 2 Sep 2020 15:24]
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:31 - Sep 2 with 3277 views | itfcjoe |
I think we are at a stage where the vulnerable need to shield and the rest of us go about things as normal |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:33 - Sep 2 with 3268 views | Ace_High1 |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:31 - Sep 2 by itfcjoe |
I think we are at a stage where the vulnerable need to shield and the rest of us go about things as normal |
Are you fully back up and running now at work? All your sites back to full capacity? |  | | |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:35 - Sep 2 with 3267 views | itfcjoe |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 15:33 - Sep 2 by Ace_High1 |
Are you fully back up and running now at work? All your sites back to full capacity? |
Yep, have been for a while - you wouldn't notice the difference from pre-lockdown now. If we had a bigger site it will be different as much more H&S required, but we are jsut mostly doing residential currently. | |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 00:21 - Sep 3 with 3082 views | bournemouthblue |
| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:21 - Sep 2 by hype313 |
You may unlikely die from it, but more and more people are developing lasting issues even with a mild dose, so even if you are a young fit person the last thing you want is long term lung/heart/kidney damage.
Personally, I'm trying to keep as far away as possible from this thing until a vaccine arrives. |
Indeed, the death rate is only one part of the pie
The side effects attached to it when people have had it badly really isn't good news at all |  |
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| Would herd immunity at this point be any good? on 09:34 - Sep 3 with 2957 views | clive_baker |
Article from The Times today:
Tests for antibodies may be dramatically underestimating the proportion of people who have been infected with the coronavirus, scientists said.
The claim, made in The BMJ, implies that it is possible some parts of the country are far closer to herd immunity than had been thought. However, the scientists who wrote the editorial cautioned that they could not put a figure on how far out the estimates were.
According to seroprevalence studies, which look for the presence of coronavirus antibodies, 5 per cent of people in the UK and 17 per cent in London have been infected.
Three researchers have said that there are inherent flaws in the way those figures are calculated, which may prove to be crucial, particularly when it comes to detecting mild cases. They may also explain, they said, why some regions seemed to be avoiding a second wave despite the relaxation of lockdown.
“There’s lots of different ways you can measure antibodies and there’s lots of different antibody classes,” Stephen Burgess, from the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University, said. “It’s possible that somebody could have antibodies present in their saliva but not in their blood and it’s possible that somebody could have one class of antibody but not another class of antibodies.”
In particular, most antibody tests do not look for a type of response called IgA antibodies, which are made in mucus – in the mouth, eyes and nose. “In certain respiratory diseases, it’s well-documented that it’s possible to beat the infection with an IgA response,” he said. | |
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