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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election 18:15 - May 4 with 5797 viewspointofblue

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labou

It could be a case of trying to get the Labour vote out but pretty desperate stuff either way. If this does come to pass, how can a government which has shown obvious signs of incompetence, selfishness and sleaze actually be gaining votes?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 22:15 - May 4 with 846 viewsFreddies_Ears

It's a new low, even for a town that once elected H'angus the Monkey as mayor.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 22:29 - May 4 with 821 viewsClapham_Junction

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:55 - May 4 by TieDyedIn95

The working class have not connected with the new left in any meaningful way. Let's face it why would they? They are largely nationalistic, meat eating, anti-immigration, pro-traditions such as marriage and Monarchy, and aren't pro gender neutrality, gay rights, race rights and such as a whole. They are vehemently anti-"Woke" and this is them rejecting that rather than endorsing a Tory, most poor people are seeing them as the lesser of two evils, utterly insane, I agree, but if you take 10 minutes to talk to former Labour voters you'll easily hear why they wont vote for them again and sadly they have more in common with Enoch Powell these days then they do Tony Benn.


I think this is largely true. People in place like Hartlepool are not voting for the Tories, they are voting against Labour (as Badger puts it, to 'stick it to the Libs') - a path we've followed the US down (although people have been doing this in rural areas for decades - voting Tory despite not supporting any of their policies largely because they think Labour are out to get them).

It's even happening to an extent in London - people angry at council cuts yet planning to vote for Shaun Bailey because Labour are a bunch of tree-hugging hipsters.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 22:51 - May 4 with 805 viewsTRUE_BLUE123

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:55 - May 4 by TieDyedIn95

The working class have not connected with the new left in any meaningful way. Let's face it why would they? They are largely nationalistic, meat eating, anti-immigration, pro-traditions such as marriage and Monarchy, and aren't pro gender neutrality, gay rights, race rights and such as a whole. They are vehemently anti-"Woke" and this is them rejecting that rather than endorsing a Tory, most poor people are seeing them as the lesser of two evils, utterly insane, I agree, but if you take 10 minutes to talk to former Labour voters you'll easily hear why they wont vote for them again and sadly they have more in common with Enoch Powell these days then they do Tony Benn.


Absolutely spot on. It’s not as simple as some people are making out.

This post pretty much sums up how I see it.

Couple that with the fact Starmer is another islingtonian and has about as much personality as a spoon. Don’t get me wrong I’d rather have that than a bumbling blonde moron from Uxbridge.
[Post edited 4 May 22:52]

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:32 - May 5 with 681 viewsGlasgowBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 22:29 - May 4 by Clapham_Junction

I think this is largely true. People in place like Hartlepool are not voting for the Tories, they are voting against Labour (as Badger puts it, to 'stick it to the Libs') - a path we've followed the US down (although people have been doing this in rural areas for decades - voting Tory despite not supporting any of their policies largely because they think Labour are out to get them).

It's even happening to an extent in London - people angry at council cuts yet planning to vote for Shaun Bailey because Labour are a bunch of tree-hugging hipsters.


A more simple explanation can be found in David Amess’ recent admission, that Ministers won’t go the extra mile for opposition run councils. Maybe they think that Johnson will Chuck some money in the direction of Tory won red wall seats.

It’s also not unreasonable for a less tribal generation of voters to think that after 60 years of a Labour MP and Labour run council, nothing has changed and that their vote has been taken for granted. This happened in Scotland.

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:44 - May 5 with 665 viewshype313

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 08:32 - May 5 by GlasgowBlue

A more simple explanation can be found in David Amess’ recent admission, that Ministers won’t go the extra mile for opposition run councils. Maybe they think that Johnson will Chuck some money in the direction of Tory won red wall seats.

It’s also not unreasonable for a less tribal generation of voters to think that after 60 years of a Labour MP and Labour run council, nothing has changed and that their vote has been taken for granted. This happened in Scotland.


Terry Christian been tweeting his usual unifying thoughts.


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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:06 - May 5 with 649 viewsSteve_M

Aside from everything else, already mentioned, I saw this yesterday (thread) which is worth reading. This is probably a factor too:





One other thing, the media obsess about the constituencies where electoral preferences have shifted structurally against Labour but ignore those where the same has happened against the Tories. It's still seeing national politics through a very specific filter.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:35 - May 5 with 618 viewsPinewoodblue

Isn’t the biggest problem a disconnect from democracy, a total lack of interest among the electorate.

Do you know who is your current Suffolk CC representative?

Do you know who else is standing?

Have you been canvassed or received any election literature?

Do you realise that Police and Crime Commissioner are being elected tomorrow?

Finally do you care about any of the above?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:40 - May 5 with 605 viewsThe_Last_Baron

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 18:42 - May 4 by bluelagos

The vaccination bounce I guess is putting a lot of people in a positive place. If it is that, it won't last all that long. Once the reality of the tough choices (cuts to services or rises in tax) that face the politicians, then the polling could be very different.


It's simple why the Tories are set to win this seat.

Labour are no longer the party of the working class. What was once a patriotic party which fought for working class people, is now some strange woke, globalist, nonsensical collective who couldn't care less about their former core base and instead pander to well off pro-EU fanatics in the likes of London. The current Government are terrible but imagine how bad it would be if Starmer and co were in charge.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 11:59 - May 5 with 551 viewsSwansea_Blue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 21:44 - May 4 by Darth_Koont

Problem is that the technocratic Labour politicians that fill the PLP and are typified by someone like Starmer really do stand for power, influence and money. Which makes them indistinguishable from the Tories.

I’d like to see politicians who have a vision and principles for the country rather than for themselves. Call me old-fashioned.


To say they are indistinguishable from the Tories simply isn't true. 'New Labour' did a lot more for the people of this country that the Tories have. They may have a similar global economic outlook, but that doesn't mean there aren't large differences at the societal level. Just look at everything that we've been losing since 2010, all linked to a lack of investment and care. Look at what left-leaning parties with conservative economic philosophies achieve in other countries.

You've every right to campaign for your vision of the Labour Party of course. But you have to realise that constantly attacking the other side of the Party plays right into the Tories hands and is part of the reason why they have such an unassailable lead.

"They're all the same" is such a common phrase these days and regularly used to justify this awful government's behaviour. By pushing the Red Tory line the left are reinforcing that message. That's not going to win over the voters Labour needs.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 12:14 - May 5 with 524 viewsThe_Last_Baron

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 11:59 - May 5 by Swansea_Blue

To say they are indistinguishable from the Tories simply isn't true. 'New Labour' did a lot more for the people of this country that the Tories have. They may have a similar global economic outlook, but that doesn't mean there aren't large differences at the societal level. Just look at everything that we've been losing since 2010, all linked to a lack of investment and care. Look at what left-leaning parties with conservative economic philosophies achieve in other countries.

You've every right to campaign for your vision of the Labour Party of course. But you have to realise that constantly attacking the other side of the Party plays right into the Tories hands and is part of the reason why they have such an unassailable lead.

"They're all the same" is such a common phrase these days and regularly used to justify this awful government's behaviour. By pushing the Red Tory line the left are reinforcing that message. That's not going to win over the voters Labour needs.


Labour are now a junk party, of no use to anyone with any common sense. Unelectable and out of touch with the thinking of the people.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 12:26 - May 5 with 507 viewsjeera

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 19:48 - May 4 by hype313

Indeed, why they fielded a remainer in a rabid Brexit town is pure stupidity.

Bit like bringing Sears on with ten to go hoping he will grab a winner.


Maybe they can't admit to the self-harm and are in denial.

So-called fishing 'community':

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/30/hundreds-of-jobs-at-risk-as-uk-fails-to-reac

Well it looks like a duck, it sounds like a duck. Nope, dunno what it is.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 12:28 - May 5 with 503 viewshype313

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 12:26 - May 5 by jeera

Maybe they can't admit to the self-harm and are in denial.

So-called fishing 'community':

https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/30/hundreds-of-jobs-at-risk-as-uk-fails-to-reac


Well, they were Turkey's voting for Christmas.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 12:29 - May 5 with 504 viewsHerbivore

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:40 - May 5 by The_Last_Baron

It's simple why the Tories are set to win this seat.

Labour are no longer the party of the working class. What was once a patriotic party which fought for working class people, is now some strange woke, globalist, nonsensical collective who couldn't care less about their former core base and instead pander to well off pro-EU fanatics in the likes of London. The current Government are terrible but imagine how bad it would be if Starmer and co were in charge.


I imagine if we had a sensible and competent grown up in charge rather than a dithering, sociopathic man-baby then things would actually be quite a bit better rather worse.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 13:09 - May 5 with 470 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 11:59 - May 5 by Swansea_Blue

To say they are indistinguishable from the Tories simply isn't true. 'New Labour' did a lot more for the people of this country that the Tories have. They may have a similar global economic outlook, but that doesn't mean there aren't large differences at the societal level. Just look at everything that we've been losing since 2010, all linked to a lack of investment and care. Look at what left-leaning parties with conservative economic philosophies achieve in other countries.

You've every right to campaign for your vision of the Labour Party of course. But you have to realise that constantly attacking the other side of the Party plays right into the Tories hands and is part of the reason why they have such an unassailable lead.

"They're all the same" is such a common phrase these days and regularly used to justify this awful government's behaviour. By pushing the Red Tory line the left are reinforcing that message. That's not going to win over the voters Labour needs.


Don’t get me wrong, I think that they are better. I just don’t think they’ve been good enough — certainly as an alternative.

During Labour’s 13 years in power the structural gaps in our society and economy widened. Even Brown has the decency to admit that they didn’t do enough to combat those imbalances and inequalities.

Unfortunately, it’s this failure to recognise and address underlying problems that has given us the politics and government we have today. Labour under Starmer look like they’re the last to understand that or at least respond to that.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 13:27 - May 5 with 444 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 13:09 - May 5 by Darth_Koont

Don’t get me wrong, I think that they are better. I just don’t think they’ve been good enough — certainly as an alternative.

During Labour’s 13 years in power the structural gaps in our society and economy widened. Even Brown has the decency to admit that they didn’t do enough to combat those imbalances and inequalities.

Unfortunately, it’s this failure to recognise and address underlying problems that has given us the politics and government we have today. Labour under Starmer look like they’re the last to understand that or at least respond to that.


And just to make it clear, I do think that the modern breed of Labour politician and senior official is interested in power, influence and money more than they should be. I think they’re far more interested in being the gatekeepers of the Establishment left and being rewarded for it than getting the Tories out per se.

TIG/Change UK (the motivations given for it at the time and the subsequent corporate and lobbying careers of those involved) should have been a wake-up call that too often nowadays these are people who aren’t exactly representing wider interests like genuine social democrats or democratic socialists do.

And it’s with no sense of their own hypocrisy that the Labour right still look to Blair and Mandelson for guidance, while pretending they’re different from the chumocracy/cronyism/corruption of the Tories.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:22 - May 5 with 396 viewsRadlett_blue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 13:09 - May 5 by Darth_Koont

Don’t get me wrong, I think that they are better. I just don’t think they’ve been good enough — certainly as an alternative.

During Labour’s 13 years in power the structural gaps in our society and economy widened. Even Brown has the decency to admit that they didn’t do enough to combat those imbalances and inequalities.

Unfortunately, it’s this failure to recognise and address underlying problems that has given us the politics and government we have today. Labour under Starmer look like they’re the last to understand that or at least respond to that.


Your problem is that the majority of UK voters clearly don't want Socialism in the accepted sense of the word. That's why the only period of Labour government in the last 40 years was Blair's "tory lite" administration.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:22 - May 5 with 396 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 09:40 - May 5 by The_Last_Baron

It's simple why the Tories are set to win this seat.

Labour are no longer the party of the working class. What was once a patriotic party which fought for working class people, is now some strange woke, globalist, nonsensical collective who couldn't care less about their former core base and instead pander to well off pro-EU fanatics in the likes of London. The current Government are terrible but imagine how bad it would be if Starmer and co were in charge.


There are plenty of issues with why Labour is struggling but blaming it on being "woke" and "globalist" isn't constructive or meaningful. What do those words mean?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:27 - May 5 with 384 viewsGlasgowBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:22 - May 5 by tractordownsouth

There are plenty of issues with why Labour is struggling but blaming it on being "woke" and "globalist" isn't constructive or meaningful. What do those words mean?


What the people of Hartlepool are desperately crying out for is more "Free Assange", waving Palestinian flags and giving the benefit of doubt to Russian poisoners.

If Starmer did more of the above then he'd romp home.

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:40 - May 5 with 357 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:27 - May 5 by GlasgowBlue

What the people of Hartlepool are desperately crying out for is more "Free Assange", waving Palestinian flags and giving the benefit of doubt to Russian poisoners.

If Starmer did more of the above then he'd romp home.


If Kerry Ann Mendoza or Aaron Bastani had been the candidate then the majority would be 10k+.

Def info.

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:57 - May 5 with 343 viewsHerbivore

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:22 - May 5 by Radlett_blue

Your problem is that the majority of UK voters clearly don't want Socialism in the accepted sense of the word. That's why the only period of Labour government in the last 40 years was Blair's "tory lite" administration.


Although generally social democratic policies - let's be real here, even Corbyn wasn't offering socialism - tend to poll quite well. People actually like the idea of things like a living wage, nationalised and funded railways etc. There is nothing especially radical about these kinds of policies. They're not proposing compulsory redistribution of wealth and collective ownership of all means of production. Voters in principle tend to like these kinds of things.

What puts them off, though, is the largely right-wing capitalist-owned press telling them that such policies are an impossible dream unless we want to transform ourselves into Venezuela overnight. I wonder why such sensationalism over policies that are commonplace in much of Northern Europe might be beneficial for the wealthy owners of the right-wing press?

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:15 - May 5 with 326 viewsjeera

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:22 - May 5 by tractordownsouth

There are plenty of issues with why Labour is struggling but blaming it on being "woke" and "globalist" isn't constructive or meaningful. What do those words mean?


Nor was JC known to "pander to well off pro-EU fanatics".

He's just using some terms he's heard of.

It happens a lot.

Well it looks like a duck, it sounds like a duck. Nope, dunno what it is.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:18 - May 5 with 322 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 14:40 - May 5 by tractordownsouth

If Kerry Ann Mendoza or Aaron Bastani had been the candidate then the majority would be 10k+.

Def info.


Bastani is speaking far more sense about the situation than the mainstreamers and Starmerites.

That’s what probably hurts the most. That he’s right.
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:36 - May 5 with 305 viewstractordownsouth

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:18 - May 5 by Darth_Koont

Bastani is speaking far more sense about the situation than the mainstreamers and Starmerites.

That’s what probably hurts the most. That he’s right.


It was more of a throwaway comment. To be honest, I have no clue what he's saying at the moment, he hasn't popped up on my radar for a while. Last I heard, he was defending the covid denier who chucked Starmer out of the pub!

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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:38 - May 5 with 291 viewsDarth_Koont

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:36 - May 5 by tractordownsouth

It was more of a throwaway comment. To be honest, I have no clue what he's saying at the moment, he hasn't popped up on my radar for a while. Last I heard, he was defending the covid denier who chucked Starmer out of the pub!


He wasn’t defending Covid denial now was he?
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Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 15:43 - May 5 with 276 viewsStokieBlue

Conservatives predicted to win Hartlepool by-election on 22:29 - May 4 by Clapham_Junction

I think this is largely true. People in place like Hartlepool are not voting for the Tories, they are voting against Labour (as Badger puts it, to 'stick it to the Libs') - a path we've followed the US down (although people have been doing this in rural areas for decades - voting Tory despite not supporting any of their policies largely because they think Labour are out to get them).

It's even happening to an extent in London - people angry at council cuts yet planning to vote for Shaun Bailey because Labour are a bunch of tree-hugging hipsters.


There seems to be a lot of pushback in London against the LTN's.

They have caused havoc but I fully understand the reasoning behind having them. However a lot of people really are against them.

Bailey is just awful.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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