| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... 21:50 - Jul 28 with 3008 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
....so I accept I may be missing something but isn't it all down to school kids not being tested any more? |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 21:53 - Jul 28 with 2581 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
You cynic!
That would be worth looking at more scientifically. Even if the drop is across age groups, each positive test from a school student presumably leads to adults testing who otherwise would not and therefore cases being found that would otherwise go unknown.
We now have very little regulation of crowds at sporting events and festivals. I will be amazed if numbers continue to drop off. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:03 - Jul 28 with 2476 views | TractorWood |
Euros init |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:18 - Jul 28 with 2365 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 21:53 - Jul 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
You cynic!
That would be worth looking at more scientifically. Even if the drop is across age groups, each positive test from a school student presumably leads to adults testing who otherwise would not and therefore cases being found that would otherwise go unknown.
We now have very little regulation of crowds at sporting events and festivals. I will be amazed if numbers continue to drop off. |
Are we stopping testing them when they go back in September? | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:23 - Jul 28 with 2342 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:18 - Jul 28 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Are we stopping testing them when they go back in September? |
Nope. The school is preparing for over 2000 tests in a few days when they all return once again. I presume they will then go back to self-reporting home tests once again as well.
As staff, I asked if I should continue to test over the holiday and was told yes if I am planning to come into school. So I am still testing but don't know how many staff will be because I only found out by asking. A fair number of staff will be coming in to work with the new intake for a week as well. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:29 - Jul 28 with 2309 views | bluelagos |
As with many things CV, there is much guess work and little solid knowledge.
Article in todays I paper highlighted a few things. The reduction in cases over the past week may be due to a few things (or a combination)
Schools out, so less mixing of pupils indoors.
End of the Euros, so less mixing in pubs, homes to watch them.
Warm weather, so more outdoor mixing.
Ref the second point, apparently Scotland and England had a 90:10 male ratio for cases whilst their teams were in the tournament and now closer to 50:50 indicating the Euros drove quite a bit of virus spread.
The article also said the rates could still rise. And deaths are still rising although presumably that will reverse as the reduction in cases feeds through.
Also the impact of relaxing restrictions is yet to be seen.
(Dont anyone shoot the messenger, just recounting the paper article) |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:31 - Jul 28 with 2288 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:29 - Jul 28 by bluelagos |
As with many things CV, there is much guess work and little solid knowledge.
Article in todays I paper highlighted a few things. The reduction in cases over the past week may be due to a few things (or a combination)
Schools out, so less mixing of pupils indoors.
End of the Euros, so less mixing in pubs, homes to watch them.
Warm weather, so more outdoor mixing.
Ref the second point, apparently Scotland and England had a 90:10 male ratio for cases whilst their teams were in the tournament and now closer to 50:50 indicating the Euros drove quite a bit of virus spread.
The article also said the rates could still rise. And deaths are still rising although presumably that will reverse as the reduction in cases feeds through.
Also the impact of relaxing restrictions is yet to be seen.
(Dont anyone shoot the messenger, just recounting the paper article) |
The deaths is an interesting stat because if they continue to rise it indicates the drop in cases is purely in detection rather than infections. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:32 - Jul 28 with 2270 views | MerseyBlue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 21:53 - Jul 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
You cynic!
That would be worth looking at more scientifically. Even if the drop is across age groups, each positive test from a school student presumably leads to adults testing who otherwise would not and therefore cases being found that would otherwise go unknown.
We now have very little regulation of crowds at sporting events and festivals. I will be amazed if numbers continue to drop off. |
Think the lack of quarantine requirements for many entering the UK with a double jab will also contribute to a rise. I was intending to make the trip for the first game but can't justify it with things on a knife edge. I have an inkling that restrictions will end up being reintroduced around Autumm so whilst the early part of the season may be my only chance to go any time soon, it just doesn't feel like the time is right. I hope I'm proven to be a pessimist but it doesn't quite sit right with me at the moment. |  |
| "Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." | | Poll: | Who will be the winner? |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:39 - Jul 28 with 2222 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:32 - Jul 28 by MerseyBlue |
Think the lack of quarantine requirements for many entering the UK with a double jab will also contribute to a rise. I was intending to make the trip for the first game but can't justify it with things on a knife edge. I have an inkling that restrictions will end up being reintroduced around Autumm so whilst the early part of the season may be my only chance to go any time soon, it just doesn't feel like the time is right. I hope I'm proven to be a pessimist but it doesn't quite sit right with me at the moment. |
Our decision about attending the first match of the season went very similar to yours. I was very much looking forward to going but it seems an unnecessary risk to take. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:46 - Jul 28 with 2157 views | MerseyBlue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:39 - Jul 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Our decision about attending the first match of the season went very similar to yours. I was very much looking forward to going but it seems an unnecessary risk to take. |
Exactly that, I'd love to be there and there's a nagging voice in the back of my head begging me to go but I'm going to ignore it. Despite my distance I usually get to a good amount of games, so I think the hardest thing is not knowing when I'll go again. | |
| "Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience." | | Poll: | Who will be the winner? |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:04 - Jul 28 with 2083 views | LancsBlue |
There is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence that some people are not coming forward for tests because they don't want to jeopardise their holidays. Not the main reason, but possibly another factor. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:13 - Jul 28 with 2035 views | mylittletown |
Infections went up again today. |  | | |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:43 - Jul 28 with 1962 views | Trequartista |
The testing is only down 10% on last week, the cases are down about 30-40%.
It's not really miraculous, its just nobody really knows whats going on. It's quite funny watching all the experts with their models floundering about looking for reasons - schools breaking up, euros finishing, nice weather etc. I mean these were all knowns (or in the case of the weather, not unexpected) beforehand yet none of their models predicted it - why don't they just admit they don't know what's going to happen? Professor Neil Ferguson is always good value for wild predictions. He was forecasting doomsday 2 weeks ago with 200,000 cases a day, now he's saying we've probably looking back at the worst of it!
I note they think cases will go up on Friday, which is quite probable, from the unlocking, but the incubation period of the delta variant is on average 3-4 days, so surely the effects would already been seen? |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:46 - Jul 28 with 1942 views | Trequartista |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:13 - Jul 28 by mylittletown |
Infections went up again today. |
Day to day comparisons aren't really of significance as there are often data lags and some days are always higher than others (when the cases were surging, you would still get days that were lower than the previous day). The more significant figure is that it is well down on last Wednesday.
Similarly deaths are down on yesterday, but yesterday was artificially high as the weekend backlog was counted, so sadly in reality they are still going to rise for another 3-4 weeks until the case drop kicks in. [Post edited 28 Jul 2021 23:47]
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:52 - Jul 28 with 1916 views | Trequartista |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:03 - Jul 28 by TractorWood |
Euros init |
If the Euros produced a spike in cases, why do those cases not continue to multiply? Does the Wembley variant only have an R rate of 0.1? It's all guesswork. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 06:59 - Jul 29 with 1648 views | GlasgowBlue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:13 - Jul 28 by mylittletown |
Infections went up again today. |
Week on week comparison is best, not day by day, that's why they give last week's figures. Last Wednesday 44,104 cases. Yesterday 27,734 cases. A 37.1% weekly fall in positives for The UK (38.3% for England).
The increase in hospitalisation is also slowing. An interesting stat published earlier in the week. 44% of hospitalisations were people admitted to hospital for other reasons who were then tested and subsequently found to be positive. A mix of a symptomatic patients and some who picked up Covid in the hospital.
The vaccine is clearly doing it’s job.
Sadly deaths will rise over the next week or so but again, these should fall in line with the fall in cases. And with England relaxing restrictions last week there will most likely be another increase in positive cases. Hopefully not ridiculously high numbers. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 07:29 - Jul 29 with 1562 views | chicoazul |
But….but…..but……TWTD said…. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 07:29 - Jul 29 with 1559 views | Ely_Blue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:04 - Jul 28 by LancsBlue |
There is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence that some people are not coming forward for tests because they don't want to jeopardise their holidays. Not the main reason, but possibly another factor. |
I think this is definitely a factor, whilst not directly this type of instance I know of someone who tested positive on Tuesday who was due to go on holiday this coming Saturday (only in the uk) and when they ask you when you first started getting symptoms her family were trying to engineer it so that the dates made it ok for them to travel the length of the country to Cornwall.
Unfortunately I was one of the close contacts and got pinged yesterday whilst waiting for a flight home from Germany. Test and Trace are persistent as between me getting the first text at 9am and actually getting home at just after 6pm I was text 3 times, had a notification from the app and had 3 phone calls |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 07:52 - Jul 29 with 1504 views | Vic |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:04 - Jul 28 by LancsBlue |
There is quite a bit of anecdotal evidence that some people are not coming forward for tests because they don't want to jeopardise their holidays. Not the main reason, but possibly another factor. |
Anecdotally, I know of families who have stopped testing because of family weddings in the next couple of weeks. Likewise they have switched off their NHS app so they don’t get pinged. Mind you, to go along with this they are also in virtual self isolation to minimize any risk.
Not sure this is why numbers have been going dow, but whatever the reason the drop in numbers is very welcome isn’t it. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 08:12 - Jul 29 with 1439 views | andytown |
Most schools only finished last week and numbers were decreasing from last week as well, so I wouldn’t have thought it would be that. |  | | |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 08:51 - Jul 29 with 1355 views | TractorWood |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 23:52 - Jul 28 by Trequartista |
If the Euros produced a spike in cases, why do those cases not continue to multiply? Does the Wembley variant only have an R rate of 0.1? It's all guesswork. |
Because all the people I know who got it at the final including me spent the next 5 days in bed and not spreading it. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 10:14 - Jul 29 with 1234 views | Pinewoodblue |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 08:51 - Jul 29 by TractorWood |
Because all the people I know who got it at the final including me spent the next 5 days in bed and not spreading it. |
You would expect it to spread within the households of those who contracted it and also by those infected but not showing symptoms. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 10:20 - Jul 29 with 1204 views | GeoffSentence |
I put it down to the kids fizzy pop trick being rumbled. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 10:31 - Jul 29 with 1171 views | Steve_M |
It might be part of it but PCR test rates have not fallen anywhere near as quickly as the rate of infections.
We still haven't seen the impact of the 19 July come through in the data so it might be reasonable to expect another rise next week but crucially a smaller number of cases this week does reduce the size of any rise.
It's also a bit daft to put so much stress on the results from the last few days (not you, just a general comment), at the very least a seven day average figure is required but also the historical record shows minor blips contrary to the trend both as cases increased and decreased. |  |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 10:32 - Jul 29 with 1164 views | Steve_M |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:31 - Jul 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The deaths is an interesting stat because if they continue to rise it indicates the drop in cases is purely in detection rather than infections. |
That's still the lag between rising infections and hospitalisations and deaths. Hospitalisations is a couple of weeks, deaths might be a little longer. | |
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| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 10:38 - Jul 29 with 1135 views | BlueRaider |
| This "miraculous" drop in covid infections... on 22:31 - Jul 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
The deaths is an interesting stat because if they continue to rise it indicates the drop in cases is purely in detection rather than infections. |
Probably a two week or so lag between the two trends ? | |
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