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Thanks Liz 08:13 - Jan 31 with 11714 viewsStokieBlue

The UK economy will be the only economy in the G7 predicted to shrink in 2023. Even sanction hit Russia is predicted to manage 0.3% growth.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/31/britain-only-g7-economy-expecte

SB

Edit: Sorry Herbs, didn't see your thread
[Post edited 31 Jan 2023 8:13]
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Thanks Liz on 16:08 - Jan 31 with 2585 viewsblueasfook

Thanks Liz on 15:27 - Jan 31 by HARRY10

'we woz stabbed in the back, innit'

What absolute old bollox this sort of nonsense is. On par with some idiot claiming 'we would have beaten Burnley if we were allowed to stay on the pitch for 15 minutes after Burnley had gone to the dressing room'.

The 'waffle' was actually the whining once the reality of brexit took hold. There was no alternative brexit that a 'stab in the back' failed to bring about.

Brexit was always going to mean a huge shortage of labour. Was always going to mean an avalange of red tape, regulations and cost once we were were as others, outside of the EU. It was inevitable that given the above two businesses would pull out of the UK and relocate back into the EU.

Alll this was explained to brexiters, much as you might explain to a small child that when the sun goes below the horizon it will start to, and eventually, get dark.

But no. They had habutual liars such as Farage, Rees-Mogg and Johnson who told them that they had some magical formula that would defy the laws of gravity. Reasoned argument could be countered with three word slogans that could be chanted. Slogans that would ward off the evils of facts and rational thinking.

Thankfully the move back towards the EU has long been in swing. Slowly, but steadily, just as the swing for suport of brext is decreasing. We are now even getting-

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/31/brexit-lies-tory-billionaire-gu


*whips out yet another Guardian article*

Lol

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Thanks Liz on 17:32 - Jan 31 with 2508 viewsThe_Flashing_Smile

Thanks Liz on 16:08 - Jan 31 by blueasfook

*whips out yet another Guardian article*

Lol


People have made some very good points in response to you and you've just ignored them in favour of having a pop at Harry.

Once again, trolling. Or no answer. Or both.

Trust the process. Trust Phil.

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Thanks Liz on 18:13 - Jan 31 with 2486 viewsBanksterDebtSlave

Thanks Liz on 13:29 - Jan 31 by MattinLondon

To me, this has always seemed like a ridiculous argument to make. Some sort of Class War directed at the middle classes, who let’s face it, didn’t have a lot of political influence. But, the true wealthy who benefit from Brexit from deregulation and tax havens happily go about their business.


It's an observation of fact not a prescription.

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Thanks Liz on 18:23 - Jan 31 with 2458 viewsibbleobble

Thanks Liz on 10:00 - Jan 31 by StokieBlue

Did you take the time to read the article?

Any thoughts on it past ad-hominem attacks on the source?

Any thoughts on our economy shrinking whilst the Russian economy is growing under heavy sanctions?

SB


I liked this bit: “In its update, the IMF said the UK had performed more strongly in 2022 than anticipated, growing by 4.1% rather than the 3.6% expected three months ago.” It puts the shrinking economy numbers in a slightly different light.

By the way, Russia are circumnavigating sanctions using the crypto market to great effect.
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Thanks Liz on 08:22 - Feb 1 with 2319 viewsSwansea_Blue

Thanks Liz on 13:13 - Jan 31 by Herbivore

Didn't those figures regarding growth also turn out to be wrong, and our growth was actually not close to being the highest in the G7? Whichever way you slice it, we're an absolute shambles. Feels like a death spiral.


Output per hour was the big correction, taking us from claimed best in the G7 to actual second worst.

GDP is pretty much flat. It’s weird as the government has regularly claimed we’d the strongest G7 growth in 2022, yet the ONS show a 0.2 point rise between Nov 21 (99.7) to Nov 22 (99.9). All the OECD updates show us as one of the weakest performers in the G7 too, so god knows why some people were claiming the opposite.

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Thanks Liz on 08:34 - Feb 1 with 2296 viewsblueasfook

Thanks Liz on 15:50 - Jan 31 by Eireannach_gorm

Send them to Rwanda!


Canary Islands please. I'd happily get put on a plane and sent there.

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Thanks Liz on 09:46 - Feb 1 with 2269 viewsDJR

Thanks Liz on 08:22 - Feb 1 by Swansea_Blue

Output per hour was the big correction, taking us from claimed best in the G7 to actual second worst.

GDP is pretty much flat. It’s weird as the government has regularly claimed we’d the strongest G7 growth in 2022, yet the ONS show a 0.2 point rise between Nov 21 (99.7) to Nov 22 (99.9). All the OECD updates show us as one of the weakest performers in the G7 too, so god knows why some people were claiming the opposite.


I think the best way of looking at things is to compare current GDP with pre-pandemic GDP.

As the second graph on the following link shows, the UK is the only country in the G7 whose GDP is lower than it was pre-pandemic, and things are only going to get worse if our growth? for this year is as bad as predicted by the IMF.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain.

And if the aim was to control immigration, people have been sold a pup because net migration to the UK in the year to June 2022 (after we had left the EU) hit and all-time record of 504,000, virtually all of it from outside the EU.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63743259
[Post edited 1 Feb 2023 10:11]
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Thanks Liz on 10:07 - Feb 1 with 2241 viewslongtimefan

Thanks Liz on 08:22 - Feb 1 by Swansea_Blue

Output per hour was the big correction, taking us from claimed best in the G7 to actual second worst.

GDP is pretty much flat. It’s weird as the government has regularly claimed we’d the strongest G7 growth in 2022, yet the ONS show a 0.2 point rise between Nov 21 (99.7) to Nov 22 (99.9). All the OECD updates show us as one of the weakest performers in the G7 too, so god knows why some people were claiming the opposite.


I assume they're basing it on Table 1 in the actual IMF report:
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/Update/January/English/t
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Thanks Liz on 10:21 - Feb 1 with 2230 viewsSuperKieranMcKenna

Thanks Liz on 09:46 - Feb 1 by DJR

I think the best way of looking at things is to compare current GDP with pre-pandemic GDP.

As the second graph on the following link shows, the UK is the only country in the G7 whose GDP is lower than it was pre-pandemic, and things are only going to get worse if our growth? for this year is as bad as predicted by the IMF.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain.

And if the aim was to control immigration, people have been sold a pup because net migration to the UK in the year to June 2022 (after we had left the EU) hit and all-time record of 504,000, virtually all of it from outside the EU.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63743259
[Post edited 1 Feb 2023 10:11]


“However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain”

As much as I agree we should be part of it - it hasn’t stopped many youngsters going to work in the EU, I don’t know of anyone from my generation from that ever had the resources to do so, it’s a very elitist point in my opinion - much like Erasmus really only accessible to the better off. These weren’t real benefits to the working class (apart from perhaps the retirement point). It’s not too difficult to get a work visa once you have some experience and I know several that have - language is much more of a barrier.

I do wish Starmer would commit to the Single Market but appreciate he doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers at this stage. I wonder if he would go for it once he’s in office?I
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Thanks Liz on 10:41 - Feb 1 with 2222 viewsDJR

Thanks Liz on 10:21 - Feb 1 by SuperKieranMcKenna

“However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain”

As much as I agree we should be part of it - it hasn’t stopped many youngsters going to work in the EU, I don’t know of anyone from my generation from that ever had the resources to do so, it’s a very elitist point in my opinion - much like Erasmus really only accessible to the better off. These weren’t real benefits to the working class (apart from perhaps the retirement point). It’s not too difficult to get a work visa once you have some experience and I know several that have - language is much more of a barrier.

I do wish Starmer would commit to the Single Market but appreciate he doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers at this stage. I wonder if he would go for it once he’s in office?I


I can see what you say about freedom of movement being slightly elitist, but I can remember, for example, seeing a television programme about a fairly ordinary person who had moved out to France to set up a carp fishing business.

I also have very good knowledge of an area in Spain which is the complete opposite of somewhere like Marbella and was featured in the news because it had the highest percentage of British residents in Spain. Whilst there are lots of retirees, there are also many ordinary people who have moved out to Spain to make a living, whether by running a bar, a pool business, a dentists', an estate agents' or a building firm etc.

The problem is that these sort of people wouldn't be able to get a visa these days to fulfil their dreams because they won't have the guaranteed income needed to get a work/residency visa and pay for private health insurance for their whole family.
[Post edited 1 Feb 2023 10:55]
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Thanks Liz on 10:57 - Feb 1 with 2200 viewsFreddies_Ears

Thanks Liz on 10:41 - Feb 1 by DJR

I can see what you say about freedom of movement being slightly elitist, but I can remember, for example, seeing a television programme about a fairly ordinary person who had moved out to France to set up a carp fishing business.

I also have very good knowledge of an area in Spain which is the complete opposite of somewhere like Marbella and was featured in the news because it had the highest percentage of British residents in Spain. Whilst there are lots of retirees, there are also many ordinary people who have moved out to Spain to make a living, whether by running a bar, a pool business, a dentists', an estate agents' or a building firm etc.

The problem is that these sort of people wouldn't be able to get a visa these days to fulfil their dreams because they won't have the guaranteed income needed to get a work/residency visa and pay for private health insurance for their whole family.
[Post edited 1 Feb 2023 10:55]


I have met many people who took advantage of the of movement provisions to forge a different life. People working in hotels ("i"d rather work in the south of France than Blackpool"), ski resorts (bars, chalets, instructors). Two chaps I met in the Rhone who quit Lincolnshire as they'd rather pick grapes in the sun than spuds in the Fens, and 20 years on had worked their way into full-time management jobs at one of the leading vineyards... post-Brexit, top professionals are far more likely to get work permits than washer-uppers, another example of Brexit promoting elitism.
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Thanks Liz on 14:58 - Feb 1 with 2119 viewsitfcjoe

Thanks Liz on 10:57 - Feb 1 by Freddies_Ears

I have met many people who took advantage of the of movement provisions to forge a different life. People working in hotels ("i"d rather work in the south of France than Blackpool"), ski resorts (bars, chalets, instructors). Two chaps I met in the Rhone who quit Lincolnshire as they'd rather pick grapes in the sun than spuds in the Fens, and 20 years on had worked their way into full-time management jobs at one of the leading vineyards... post-Brexit, top professionals are far more likely to get work permits than washer-uppers, another example of Brexit promoting elitism.


There is also the touring work like musicians etc who struggle.

On yesterdays News Agents podcast, Emily Maitlis gave Lord Frost a good grilling on Brexit and was allowed to explore it in great detail.

His main point was that the Govt has failed to take advantage of the opportunities Brexit has presented which frankly is just lazy rubbish considering it was his oven ready deal that was implemented which he later stepped away from. But it wasn't his fault because Theresa May had negotiated such a bad deal that he had no chance......yes these just sound like more excuses.

Lewis Goodall, as he usually does cut through the noise with his analysis, that those that wanted Brexit wanted to do so to make it a Singapore on Thames, low tax, finance country but they knew they could only get it through with the working class vote.....but the Brexit they wanted and have Governed for does absolutely zero for those who voted for it

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Thanks Liz on 16:17 - Feb 1 with 2081 viewsleitrimblue

Thanks Liz on 10:21 - Feb 1 by SuperKieranMcKenna

“However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain”

As much as I agree we should be part of it - it hasn’t stopped many youngsters going to work in the EU, I don’t know of anyone from my generation from that ever had the resources to do so, it’s a very elitist point in my opinion - much like Erasmus really only accessible to the better off. These weren’t real benefits to the working class (apart from perhaps the retirement point). It’s not too difficult to get a work visa once you have some experience and I know several that have - language is much more of a barrier.

I do wish Starmer would commit to the Single Market but appreciate he doesn’t want to ruffle any feathers at this stage. I wonder if he would go for it once he’s in office?I


Me an my mates lived all over Europe in the 90,s. Amsterdam, Ibiza, South of Spain Zurich etc. We were all from Haverhills Chalkstone Estate and far from elite. You just needed to be a bit inventive. I'm guessing that experience led to many off that group living all over the world now. Pity that opportunity now isn't as easily available to kids from places like the Chalkstone
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Thanks Liz on 16:55 - Feb 1 with 2020 viewsSwansea_Blue

Thanks Liz on 09:46 - Feb 1 by DJR

I think the best way of looking at things is to compare current GDP with pre-pandemic GDP.

As the second graph on the following link shows, the UK is the only country in the G7 whose GDP is lower than it was pre-pandemic, and things are only going to get worse if our growth? for this year is as bad as predicted by the IMF.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

However, whilst I think criticism about the economic effects of Brexit are valid, equally, if not more, important to me, are the cultural/social/political effects. As regards our European neighbours, much more unites us than divides us. And it is tragedy to me that we no longer have the right to live, work or retire in the EU, which especially impacts on my children, as well as the many ordinary Britons denied the opportunity to spend their final years in Spain.

And if the aim was to control immigration, people have been sold a pup because net migration to the UK in the year to June 2022 (after we had left the EU) hit and all-time record of 504,000, virtually all of it from outside the EU.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63743259
[Post edited 1 Feb 2023 10:11]


Fair point. I was commenting on GDP growth as growth was brought up. It’s not top of my priorities though - I’m more interested in my kids having a good education, opportunities for them and others when they enter the higher education or job market, being able to see a GP if I need one, not having to witness endless pointless arguments stirred up in this culture war, not needing a second mortgage to buy a pint, being able to afford my first mortgage when current terms end, etc.

Socially, Brexit has been poor for us. We’ve been particularly badly affected as we had a lot of jobs here supported by EU funds, so have lost colleagues and will continue to do so this year. That’s Brits and EU nationals who’ve left us with whole project teams being disbanded. I don’t need it now, but made plenty of use of FOM to work around Europe over the last 15 yrs or so. Just such a pointless waste, but I imagine many people who weren’t directly experiencing the benefits of EU membership don’t care.

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Thanks Liz on 17:08 - Feb 1 with 2009 viewsDJR

Thanks Liz on 16:55 - Feb 1 by Swansea_Blue

Fair point. I was commenting on GDP growth as growth was brought up. It’s not top of my priorities though - I’m more interested in my kids having a good education, opportunities for them and others when they enter the higher education or job market, being able to see a GP if I need one, not having to witness endless pointless arguments stirred up in this culture war, not needing a second mortgage to buy a pint, being able to afford my first mortgage when current terms end, etc.

Socially, Brexit has been poor for us. We’ve been particularly badly affected as we had a lot of jobs here supported by EU funds, so have lost colleagues and will continue to do so this year. That’s Brits and EU nationals who’ve left us with whole project teams being disbanded. I don’t need it now, but made plenty of use of FOM to work around Europe over the last 15 yrs or so. Just such a pointless waste, but I imagine many people who weren’t directly experiencing the benefits of EU membership don’t care.


Sorry, I wasn't questioning what you said. Instead, I was using your post as an opportunity to chip in on the debate.

I agree with everything you say in your latest post.
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Thanks Liz on 17:20 - Feb 1 with 2000 viewsmrshallisfit

Thanks Liz on 09:50 - Jan 31 by blueasfook

Oh look, it's the Guardian and they're being negative about Brexit. What a surprise. One of these days I am expecting some kind of "Brexit Ate My Hamster" headline from them.
[Post edited 31 Jan 2023 9:50]


Steak and chips time for I think.
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Thanks Liz on 21:10 - Feb 1 with 1925 viewsGeomorph

Thanks Liz on 10:16 - Jan 31 by StokieBlue

The article doesn't mention brexit once so I can only assume you haven't bothered to read it before replying.

I didn't see Newsnight last night so I can't comment on the segment but brexit has been a disaster. Why would we get good trade deals given our bargaining power had greatly deceased being outside a large block? It was never realistic, it was a Tory lie from the start.

Still waiting on that 350m a week for the NHS as well.

SB


And the 40 hospitals… oh and that Russia report… oh forgot.. the oven ready social care system too. All drunk up by the easily led but all complete b0llocks
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Thanks Liz on 22:43 - Feb 1 with 1855 viewsreusersfreekicks

Thanks Liz on 10:49 - Jan 31 by blueasfook

Shhh now, adults are talking.


Oh the irony
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Thanks Liz on 15:48 - May 23 with 1088 viewsGlasgowBlue

Or not. IMF have upgraded their forecast to higher growth than Germany. Surprised not to see a correction on here.

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Thanks Liz on 15:59 - May 23 with 1049 viewshype313

Thanks Liz on 15:48 - May 23 by GlasgowBlue

Or not. IMF have upgraded their forecast to higher growth than Germany. Surprised not to see a correction on here.


All these forecasters across the board are about as accurate as Mystic Meg's prophecy.

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Thanks Liz on 16:01 - May 23 with 1035 viewswkj

Thanks Liz on 15:59 - May 23 by hype313

All these forecasters across the board are about as accurate as Mystic Meg's prophecy.


Mystic Meg could probably do better, even with her current situation

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Thanks Liz on 16:04 - May 23 with 1030 viewsGlasgowBlue

Thanks Liz on 15:59 - May 23 by hype313

All these forecasters across the board are about as accurate as Mystic Meg's prophecy.


When have the IMF ever got their forecasts right?

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Thanks Liz on 16:06 - May 23 with 1025 viewsbobwya

Thanks Liz on 15:48 - May 23 by GlasgowBlue

Or not. IMF have upgraded their forecast to higher growth than Germany. Surprised not to see a correction on here.


It is being said that the IMF has not got a forecast about the UK correct since 2016 I wouldn't be surprised if that is the case
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Thanks Liz on 16:13 - May 23 with 1012 viewsStokieBlue

Thanks Liz on 16:04 - May 23 by GlasgowBlue

When have the IMF ever got their forecasts right?


Seems odd to suggest one analysis was wrong by pointing to another analysis by the same people as evidence that it was wrong when you believe they are always wrong.

SB
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Thanks Liz on 16:24 - May 23 with 986 viewsSuperKieranMcKenna

Thanks Liz on 16:13 - May 23 by StokieBlue

Seems odd to suggest one analysis was wrong by pointing to another analysis by the same people as evidence that it was wrong when you believe they are always wrong.

SB


It’s the potential US debt default that worries me. That would make Truss’s disastrous budget look small fry!
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