| Triple lock could add £45 billion a year to state pensions bill by 2050 08:18 - Sep 8 with 15628 views | DJR |
Following on from a thread which I think Joe started, and speaking as someone only two years off state pension age, the following is a disgrace in terms of generational fairness. The triple lock must go, with additional help targeted at those pensioners who need it, although it should be noted that according to Karl Emerson of the IFS, speaking on the Today Programme this morning, pensioner poverty rates are actually lower than the general population.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/08/triple-lock-could-add-45bn-to-stat
[Post edited 8 Sep 2023 18:19]
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:49 - Sep 8 with 2146 views | chicoazul |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 08:31 - Sep 8 by geg1992 |
I'm kinda just anticipating that a state pension won't exist when I retire. |
I hear this fear a lot. It will never happen, not even the British public are dense enough to vote en masse for a party that would get rid of it. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:53 - Sep 8 with 2141 views | chicoazul |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:28 - Sep 8 by swede |
Please stop perpetuating the myth that young people are providing for "elders who've had more comfy lives than they will ever be able to dream of". For most people of my generation this is simply not true.
Yes, further education was free, but I still could not take up a place as I had to get a job to support my mother and siblings.
Yes, I bought my first house for £13K, but I was only bringing home £49 per week. That cheap home was a 3 bed terrace with no heating, bathroom or inside toilet. I spent every free hour renovating it.
When my children were young, I could not afford a caravan holiday in Lowestoft yet alone ever dream of going abroad. We did without.
Meals out and takeaways were simply unknown. They never happened.
I had to miss 12 years of going to Portman Road as my children needed to be clothed and fed as a priority.
I am very soon due to collect my state pension after working for almost 50 years. I will still not be living in luxury, nor do I aspire to it. But without a state pension propping up my meagre private pension, I would not survive.
All my life I have learned to be content with what I have and not spend recklessly what I do not have. It is a lesson many of the younger generation would do well to learn too. |
“Yes my generation had all these enormous baked in advantages including a non stop rocketing housing market free further education and an excellent job market but I had to not go to football for a bit and we didn’t have JustEat” | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:59 - Sep 8 with 2123 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:28 - Sep 8 by swede |
Please stop perpetuating the myth that young people are providing for "elders who've had more comfy lives than they will ever be able to dream of". For most people of my generation this is simply not true.
Yes, further education was free, but I still could not take up a place as I had to get a job to support my mother and siblings.
Yes, I bought my first house for £13K, but I was only bringing home £49 per week. That cheap home was a 3 bed terrace with no heating, bathroom or inside toilet. I spent every free hour renovating it.
When my children were young, I could not afford a caravan holiday in Lowestoft yet alone ever dream of going abroad. We did without.
Meals out and takeaways were simply unknown. They never happened.
I had to miss 12 years of going to Portman Road as my children needed to be clothed and fed as a priority.
I am very soon due to collect my state pension after working for almost 50 years. I will still not be living in luxury, nor do I aspire to it. But without a state pension propping up my meagre private pension, I would not survive.
All my life I have learned to be content with what I have and not spend recklessly what I do not have. It is a lesson many of the younger generation would do well to learn too. |
“Yes, I bought my first house for £13K, but I was only bringing home £49 per week”
Beyond the woe is me, that’s only 5* salary though - people today have to pay many multiples of that (the average house price is 12/13 times average salary- worse than that in London and the South East. If you haven’t got two earners, or a massive deposit forget it.
*I expressed solidity with pensioners on this, but the constant failure of some to understand the preferable housing circumstances is very frustrating. [Post edited 8 Sep 2023 11:02]
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 11:07 - Sep 8 with 2109 views | thebooks |
Stats on pensioner poverty are interesting (at least to me).
In 1994, 28% of pensioners lived in poverty, which fell to 12% by 2012 (the lowest rate of any group). It’s actually on the rise again (lesson 1: Tories impoverish everyone except the already rich).
The reason pensioners saw reduced rates of poverty was i) the triple lock continuing as other benefits were cut and ii) the cohort enjoying really high home ownership rates and iii) general improvements in government provision under Labour
The reason it's rising again is because home ownership levels are starting to drop, and will continue to do so. And austerity. As has been pointed out here, it's a lot harder to buy a house now, and have it paid off by the time you retire, than it was if you retired 10 years ago.
Removing the triple lock will therefore affect the people who will need it more.
We view pensioners as a group of people with a set of unchanging circumstances (they own homes, they enjoy good pensions etc.), but we will all be pensioners, and the problems we experience now will affect our situations when we retire. |  | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 11:11 - Sep 8 with 2102 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 09:40 - Sep 8 by itfc24 |
'paying wealthy pensioners benefits'
Horrendous attitude, people that have paid more in tax and NI than anyone are denied state pension because of far needier causes (which these rich old people have also paid more for than anyone).
Shameful. |
According go this article 1 in 10 pensioners are higher tax payers.
https://www.yourmoney.com/retirement/huge-jump-in-the-number-of-pensioners-payin
Personally I would like to see income tax & NHI merged, while at the same time bringing back increased tax allowances for pensioners. Would also bring in incremental tax bands, bring back the 10% band, and adding 1 or 2 bands between the standard & higher tax rate.
Unfortunately it wouldn’t be seen as a vote winner, so no chance it being in Labour’s next manifesto. We need a fairer tax regime.
The article mentions some personal pensions bring increased with rate of inflation. Didn’t think they still existed outside public servants. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 11:12 - Sep 8 with 2101 views | eireblue |
Hmmm, there are some people that advocate for UBI.
If UBI = State pension.
I wonder if that would lead to, more people working for longer, more part time work as people wind down.
Or lots of people doing very little and a smaller resentful workforce. |  | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 11:57 - Sep 8 with 2072 views | Darth_Koont |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:35 - Sep 8 by Cheltenham_Blue |
"Tory light" is still 100 times better than, full on, "We will not use lube" Tory. [Post edited 8 Sep 2023 10:35]
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Certainly not 100 times better.
More like 1.2 times better and still woefully inadequate. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 12:23 - Sep 8 with 2057 views | giant_stow |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 10:28 - Sep 8 by swede |
Please stop perpetuating the myth that young people are providing for "elders who've had more comfy lives than they will ever be able to dream of". For most people of my generation this is simply not true.
Yes, further education was free, but I still could not take up a place as I had to get a job to support my mother and siblings.
Yes, I bought my first house for £13K, but I was only bringing home £49 per week. That cheap home was a 3 bed terrace with no heating, bathroom or inside toilet. I spent every free hour renovating it.
When my children were young, I could not afford a caravan holiday in Lowestoft yet alone ever dream of going abroad. We did without.
Meals out and takeaways were simply unknown. They never happened.
I had to miss 12 years of going to Portman Road as my children needed to be clothed and fed as a priority.
I am very soon due to collect my state pension after working for almost 50 years. I will still not be living in luxury, nor do I aspire to it. But without a state pension propping up my meagre private pension, I would not survive.
All my life I have learned to be content with what I have and not spend recklessly what I do not have. It is a lesson many of the younger generation would do well to learn too. |
Without getting into the ins and outs of what you're saying, in general I think your points are all based on the notion that each generation has a more 'wealthy' lifestyle than the last.
I would say that pattern appears to be finished now. Living standards haven't improved for many years - maybe approaching a generation.
The costs of providing the welfare state will only go up as people live longer. Meanwhile, the ability to earn a living will only go down owing to automation. Climate change will be more than the cherry on top, which will make everyone vastly poorer.
Young people can't bare all that burden on their own - they will need help from the older asset-owning generations above them (who afterall are responsible for the mess the young will be living in).
Edit: just to say, that as a 48 year old, if I'm lucky enough to still be alive in 2050, i'd be of pensionable age (maybe!), so I'm not some youngster talking selfishly, but instead very much a turkey (with no private pension at all) voting for Christmas. [Post edited 8 Sep 2023 12:27]
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 12:41 - Sep 8 with 2028 views | Churchman |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 09:56 - Sep 8 by giant_stow |
It's clearly got to go. £45b each year is massive and unsustainable when you look at all the other spending needs. Either that or we'll end up with a pissed off young serf class working to provide foe elders who've had far more comfy lives than they'll ever be able to dream of. |
Is it massive? Last year £788.8bn was collected in taxes. Is paying a pension to those who’ve contributed all their working lives too much to ask? Is the expectation that people pay say 40 years’ contributions and because they could/chose to make other provision for their retirement they get zippo? If so why would you save for your old age if the state will provide?
I would get rid of the triple lock though. That makes little sense to me. What I would also do is get rid of NI and merge it with Income Tax. It’d be honest, but so scary for politicians it’ll never happen.
I’d employ and train far more tax inspectors and develop the making tax digital (MTD) systems etc to close the tax gap. I’d also go after criminals’ assets. There was a team that did that but instead of expanding it, cuts have meant large scale abandonment of it. We are talking £billions of proceeds of stolen stuff safely tucked away that could be seized.
There’s plenty we could do before engaging in a race to the bottom, poverty wise. |  | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 13:20 - Sep 8 with 2012 views | bluelagos |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 09:40 - Sep 8 by itfc24 |
'paying wealthy pensioners benefits'
Horrendous attitude, people that have paid more in tax and NI than anyone are denied state pension because of far needier causes (which these rich old people have also paid more for than anyone).
Shameful. |
I guess it comes down to who you think we as a state should help most.
Those who have a need or those who have paid most in taxes? . I am happy to advocate helping those most in need. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 13:25 - Sep 8 with 2009 views | bluelagos |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 09:21 - Sep 8 by thebooks |
Yes, I don’t doubt that this is a “challenge”, but governments are all about tackling challenges and change. My problem is with a view that these challenges are never solvable except through impoverishing people, rather than exploring ways of redistributing wealth and resources. The UK is a wealthy country.
(Appreciate you’re advocating means-testing rather than simply reducing pensions and changing the way they’re calculated.) |
I'll try and dig out the article on our demographic timebomb (my words). It is happening, is foreseeable and will likely mean difficult choices going ahead
It also spells out the need for increased migration that will go down like a lead balloon with many. | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 13:36 - Sep 8 with 1999 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 08:57 - Sep 8 by bluelagos |
The problem is that our current system is unsustainable.
To address your point, I would advocate protecting the poorest pensioners,.absolutely.
But wealthy pensioners,.say those with private incomes of 50k pa, why do we think giving them an additional 11k of public money is sensible rather than say investing more in the NHS,.roads,.schools.etc..? |
Possibly because those people have also paid NI for all their working lives, on the understanding that they would qualify for a state pension in the end? | | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:13 - Sep 8 with 1969 views | giant_stow |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 12:41 - Sep 8 by Churchman |
Is it massive? Last year £788.8bn was collected in taxes. Is paying a pension to those who’ve contributed all their working lives too much to ask? Is the expectation that people pay say 40 years’ contributions and because they could/chose to make other provision for their retirement they get zippo? If so why would you save for your old age if the state will provide?
I would get rid of the triple lock though. That makes little sense to me. What I would also do is get rid of NI and merge it with Income Tax. It’d be honest, but so scary for politicians it’ll never happen.
I’d employ and train far more tax inspectors and develop the making tax digital (MTD) systems etc to close the tax gap. I’d also go after criminals’ assets. There was a team that did that but instead of expanding it, cuts have meant large scale abandonment of it. We are talking £billions of proceeds of stolen stuff safely tucked away that could be seized.
There’s plenty we could do before engaging in a race to the bottom, poverty wise. |
I don't think anyone's suggesting paying no pensions at all to those who've paid in all their lives... Its the level and the annual increase which is up for debate.
On another point, I would say £50b is indeed massive - a quick google (which I may have misunderstood!) seems to suggest the pensions bill for 2022 was £83b, so that's a big old increase.
Lastly, not to bite your head off as I'm a big fan, but I do get a bit tired of 'race to bottom' in reply to questions around fair distribution of *limited* wealth. | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:33 - Sep 8 with 1923 views | WeWereZombies |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:13 - Sep 8 by giant_stow |
I don't think anyone's suggesting paying no pensions at all to those who've paid in all their lives... Its the level and the annual increase which is up for debate.
On another point, I would say £50b is indeed massive - a quick google (which I may have misunderstood!) seems to suggest the pensions bill for 2022 was £83b, so that's a big old increase.
Lastly, not to bite your head off as I'm a big fan, but I do get a bit tired of 'race to bottom' in reply to questions around fair distribution of *limited* wealth. |
Couple of things, small error (which I think you have spotted) in the thread title - the £45 billion additional cost is projected for 2050, not 2020...
And that cost is what the addition will have risen to, not what it is every year for the intervening twenty seven years.
Furthermore the Institute of Fiscal Studies have given quite a wide margin of error for their workings, The Guardian have picked up the higher end of this but the low end is five billion pounds sterling.
And I think the five to forty five is in today's money so it might not look so much if we experience raging inflation and/or significant devaluation in the meantime. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:35 - Sep 8 with 1920 views | Herbivore |
We really need to speed up the rollout of euthanasia booths. |  |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:38 - Sep 8 with 1914 views | giant_stow |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:33 - Sep 8 by WeWereZombies |
Couple of things, small error (which I think you have spotted) in the thread title - the £45 billion additional cost is projected for 2050, not 2020...
And that cost is what the addition will have risen to, not what it is every year for the intervening twenty seven years.
Furthermore the Institute of Fiscal Studies have given quite a wide margin of error for their workings, The Guardian have picked up the higher end of this but the low end is five billion pounds sterling.
And I think the five to forty five is in today's money so it might not look so much if we experience raging inflation and/or significant devaluation in the meantime. |
Fair enough - this stuff is right on the edge of my understanding, so I'll assume you're right and stand corrected! | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:46 - Sep 8 with 1893 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:38 - Sep 8 by giant_stow |
Fair enough - this stuff is right on the edge of my understanding, so I'll assume you're right and stand corrected! |
Also the entire bill is less than the UK’s annual debt payments - at least pension money is recirculated through the economy.
The main problem seems to be handing it out to people who already have substantial assets (in which case the money less likely to be spent also). | | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:56 - Sep 8 with 1881 views | bluelagos |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 13:36 - Sep 8 by Freddies_Ears |
Possibly because those people have also paid NI for all their working lives, on the understanding that they would qualify for a state pension in the end? |
It's a very valid point - and is why any changes are so politically difficult/impossible to make.
But - I think people need to understand exactly what I am talking - before deciding it is wrong (or shameful) to state our current position is unsustainable.
https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01664/
Check out the graph in here (Japan's forecast population)
Just look at the position in 1970 compared to 2070. In 1970 it looks like around 8-10 working people are paying for the pensions of each pensioner. By 2070 it will be less than 2 working people paying for the pensions of each pensioner.
Assuming we will face a similar population shift (at some point) then we are also going to face the situation of far fewer tax payers funding the pensions of pensioners. It's just the maths of an ageing population - got no agenda here - am just being realistic about one of the challenges we face.
So as horrible and awkward as it is to consider - I think it is simply unsustainable going forward (unless we are happy to burden the tax payers of the future with an extra load of tax to pay for it) to retain the triple lock as/is.
The social contract of "paying in" and then being looked after (in terms of pensions) is great if we have a stable population. But we have an ageing / falling population - which is literally only sustained by either more migration and/or increasing the birth rates which are well below 2.1 at present. | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:08 - Sep 8 with 1868 views | bluelagos |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 13:25 - Sep 8 by bluelagos |
I'll try and dig out the article on our demographic timebomb (my words). It is happening, is foreseeable and will likely mean difficult choices going ahead
It also spells out the need for increased migration that will go down like a lead balloon with many. |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/27/world-population-bomb-may-never-go
Not the one I looked at - but does highlight what is being forecast. We already have birth rates less than 2 in most of the world - and that means that in say 30 years time a major shift in the proportion of pensionable age people.
Throw in that we are living longer - and it all means a massive change in the proportion of elderly in our population.
As an aside - the far right are using the falling birth rates and increased migration (which is how we are filling the gap) as the basis for their conspiracy to argue we (by which I mean white Brits) are being outbred and will be in the minority at some point. There is some truth to the increasing numbers of non whites in the UK - but I guess where I am coming from isn't in seeing that as a negative - rather as a necessity if we are to limit the economic damage of falling birth rates.
We need people - to do jobs, to pay taxes, to have babies - so immigration really is part of the answer for me - albeit you'll rarely hear a politician state it. | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:16 - Sep 8 with 1865 views | Leaky |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 14:35 - Sep 8 by Herbivore |
We really need to speed up the rollout of euthanasia booths. |
How ever only for people who join a union |  | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:22 - Sep 8 with 1858 views | Herbivore |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:16 - Sep 8 by Leaky |
How ever only for people who join a union |
What's your issue with people sacrificing their time and money to fight for workers' rights? | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:28 - Sep 8 with 1849 views | Leaky |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:22 - Sep 8 by Herbivore |
What's your issue with people sacrificing their time and money to fight for workers' rights? |
I just feel if your not happy with your employer just change job | | | |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:29 - Sep 8 with 1847 views | HankScorpio |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:28 - Sep 8 by Leaky |
I just feel if your not happy with your employer just change job |
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| I expect nothing from you, except to die and be a very cheap funeral. |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:37 - Sep 8 with 1838 views | Herbivore |
| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:28 - Sep 8 by Leaky |
I just feel if your not happy with your employer just change job |
I don't think you've given this a lot of thought. | |
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| Triple lock could add £45 billion to state pensions bill by 2020 on 15:40 - Sep 8 with 1829 views | HARRY10 |
Much of the 'generous' work place pensions were based on a far lower mortality rate and a far lower house ownership rate. Therefore what was needed was a larger amount over a shorter time (six years).
Unsurprisingly, this has now ballooned out of all control. 1/7th of police budget is paid out in pensions. Much down to the practice of 'kicking you upstairs' in your last few years in service ie as you got paid a percentage of your final salary, you jumped from plod on the beat to chief super. That has now been changed.
Bluntly, the only way to cut the cost to the state is to stop paying out to those 'not in need. Something that was happening as the state pension was withering, until the triple lock thing.
The problem is, as we have seen over the past number of years. What is best for the country is often not what is best for the party in government
And as seen, we are witnessing Germany 1945 in reverse. There the call up was lowered to 16, or less, and expanded to 60 plus. The current government lunacy to cope with the brexit induced shortage of labour is to have other rake through the old, the sick and the mentally unwell. This undoubtedly plays to the ignorant bigots, but in reality it means employers having to spend unnecessary time wading through applicants for jobs, be it letters or interviews.
Some while back a chap turned up with his mother for a job with an acquittance who does grounds maintenance. Totally unsuited to the work, but the mother was insistent he signed the form otherwise her son would be sanctioned. Where else had they been ?
This problem should not be seen in isolation, nor one part treated with the thought, what votes it will attract. Any decisions taken should be on the basis of what is needed for the long term, not to pander to ignorant, ill informed racists. The declining birthrate is bumping up against an increasing ageing population. Houses needed to live in are being moved over to the holiday rental sector, thus fuelling ever higher costs in state support. Meaning that far from addressing thar rising cost, as with the triple lock question, the state is again handing out money to the 'wealthy' to become even wealthier
Back to 1945. The UK was broke but it had the foresight to plan ahead, and within three years we had the NHS and a massive house building programme underway (maintained by the Tories as well).
We are in a situation where there are no plans for today, never mind the future. The mindset coming from this government is one of plunder. Help yourself to what can be looted. The very situation in Germany, May 1945 onward...... by Allied soldiers. And when there was nothing else to take the rebuilding had to start.
If we are to begin that process. The rebuilding there needs to be a change in mindset from quite a number of the populace. | | | |
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