| Labour isn't working ? 12:58 - Feb 19 with 3529 views | OldFart71 |
Looks like the current policies of Labour are having an adverse effect as inflation has hit 3% and will probably continue to increase as fuel bills are increasing by 5% in April and given that they have increased the costs to Industry by raising N.I. these costs will be passed on to consumers. If the BoE do what they are supposed to do and that's to keep inflation at 2% this will mean either an increase in interest rates or the 3% target will take much longer to achieve. |  | | |  |
| Labour isn't working ? on 13:00 - Feb 19 with 3050 views | Zx1988 |
Inflation does seem to be proving a little stickier than hoped, but I do wonder why public school fees are included in the 'basket of goods' used to calculate inflation. | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 13:43 - Feb 19 with 2942 views | baxterbasics |
I'm not naturally inclined to support or defend the current regime but I think it's only fair to point out that economies move in long cycles and it's not necessarily fair to judge anyone on just a few months in power. Look at how many still blame Thatcher or Blair (depending on which team they are in) for so many of our current ills.
Having said that, the start they are making is not encouraging... |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:00 - Feb 19 with 2876 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
If you’ve been paying attention it’s not a surprise. The BoE have always signalled that rates will drop slower than they were raised. Some politicians were overly bullish for political reasons, but that was either naive or dishonest. We have a perfect storm of strong dollar, increasing trade barriers, twin ongoing major conflicts, and supply chains impacted by said conflicts.
The BoE are fighting constant fires at the moment, and there’s also the prospect of upcoming increased taxes on businesses and employment being passed onto the consumer. | | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:06 - Feb 19 with 2849 views | Swansea_Blue |
Yet the monthly CPI fell by 0.1% on January. Now, 0.1% may be neither here nor there, but inflation is heading in the right direction. It fell 0.6% in January. So no need for panic or for the BoE to do anything. |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:07 - Feb 19 with 2832 views | lowhouseblue |
a main reason inflation is proving sticky is that wages are continuing to rise. most recently real wages were rising at 2.4% a year. so the upside to sticky inflation is that those in work are currently becoming better off in real terms. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:15 - Feb 19 with 2775 views | nrb1985 |
Nothing to do with Labour.
Looks like most of it was food inflation which is notoriously volatile along with energy costs - hence lots of people prefer to look at other "core" measures of inflation that exclude such items.
The labour market is now softening though and the "core" inflation items (shelter etc) look reasonably well behaved. So I would assume, the next couple of months will be bumpy but disinflation trend is still likely in tact.
Would also add, BoE like the Fed, have clearly abandoned their 2% target, they just won't publicly say it. If they were still targeting 2% they'd be hiking not cutting given we remain stubbornly above 2%. [Post edited 19 Feb 14:22]
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:16 - Feb 19 with 2763 views | portmanking |
| Labour isn't working ? on 13:43 - Feb 19 by baxterbasics |
I'm not naturally inclined to support or defend the current regime but I think it's only fair to point out that economies move in long cycles and it's not necessarily fair to judge anyone on just a few months in power. Look at how many still blame Thatcher or Blair (depending on which team they are in) for so many of our current ills.
Having said that, the start they are making is not encouraging... |
Penalising job creation was an absolute travesty for any new government bidding to 'go for growth'.
Until the disastrous NIC hike for employers is scrapped, the economy will continue to flatline.
Heads should really roll for how badly they've handled the economy, but sacking a Chancellor in the first six months of a new government tenure would be almost vote of no confidence-worthy. | | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:19 - Feb 19 with 2736 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:16 - Feb 19 by portmanking |
Penalising job creation was an absolute travesty for any new government bidding to 'go for growth'.
Until the disastrous NIC hike for employers is scrapped, the economy will continue to flatline.
Heads should really roll for how badly they've handled the economy, but sacking a Chancellor in the first six months of a new government tenure would be almost vote of no confidence-worthy. |
It’s not the brightest move. I don’t know why they didn’t just reverse the employee NIC. But presumably it’s down to one of their daft ‘red lines’. Nothing like paining yourself in a corner when you don’t need to! | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:25 - Feb 19 with 2686 views | baxterbasics |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:16 - Feb 19 by portmanking |
Penalising job creation was an absolute travesty for any new government bidding to 'go for growth'.
Until the disastrous NIC hike for employers is scrapped, the economy will continue to flatline.
Heads should really roll for how badly they've handled the economy, but sacking a Chancellor in the first six months of a new government tenure would be almost vote of no confidence-worthy. |
Oh I agree. Not the time to be adding costs to businesses of either direct taxes like NI or further regulatory burden.
They also need to decide which they will prioritise - net zero, or growth, and stop pretending they can do both. A healthy economy relies on plentiful and affordable energy. | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:30 - Feb 19 with 2655 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:25 - Feb 19 by baxterbasics |
Oh I agree. Not the time to be adding costs to businesses of either direct taxes like NI or further regulatory burden.
They also need to decide which they will prioritise - net zero, or growth, and stop pretending they can do both. A healthy economy relies on plentiful and affordable energy. |
Why can they not achieve growth by supporting and enabling companies to invest with confidence in the green economy, thereby moving us closer towards net zero? It’s one of the most rapidly growing sectors in the UK. | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:42 - Feb 19 with 2597 views | homer_123 |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:07 - Feb 19 by lowhouseblue |
a main reason inflation is proving sticky is that wages are continuing to rise. most recently real wages were rising at 2.4% a year. so the upside to sticky inflation is that those in work are currently becoming better off in real terms. |
Booo to wage rises!!!!  |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 14:54 - Feb 19 with 2523 views | Herbivore |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:30 - Feb 19 by Swansea_Blue |
Why can they not achieve growth by supporting and enabling companies to invest with confidence in the green economy, thereby moving us closer towards net zero? It’s one of the most rapidly growing sectors in the UK. |
Indeed. Rapid growth may well only be achieved by plundering natural resources harder and faster but that doesn't benefit anyone in the long run. There's not much point in having a booming economy when the planet is on fire and large swathes of it risk becoming uninhabitable. Those who tend to be anti-net zero tend to also be anti-immigration in my experience; if they think immigration is bad now, they're in for a nasty surprise if we don't rapidly address the climate crisis. |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 15:01 - Feb 19 with 2472 views | lowhouseblue |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:54 - Feb 19 by Herbivore |
Indeed. Rapid growth may well only be achieved by plundering natural resources harder and faster but that doesn't benefit anyone in the long run. There's not much point in having a booming economy when the planet is on fire and large swathes of it risk becoming uninhabitable. Those who tend to be anti-net zero tend to also be anti-immigration in my experience; if they think immigration is bad now, they're in for a nasty surprise if we don't rapidly address the climate crisis. |
it's both growth through decarbonising own economy and growth through investment to establish advantage in green tech that we can then sell. high tech green industries, offering skilled jobs, good wages and rising productivity is a perfectly plausible green industrial strategy. labour however needs to deliver it. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 15:37 - Feb 19 with 2334 views | jontysnut |
Trump has just demonstrated the iron law of inflation - when it goes up it's everyone else's fault, when it comes down it's because of me. |  | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 15:44 - Feb 19 with 2306 views | factual_blue |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:15 - Feb 19 by nrb1985 |
Nothing to do with Labour.
Looks like most of it was food inflation which is notoriously volatile along with energy costs - hence lots of people prefer to look at other "core" measures of inflation that exclude such items.
The labour market is now softening though and the "core" inflation items (shelter etc) look reasonably well behaved. So I would assume, the next couple of months will be bumpy but disinflation trend is still likely in tact.
Would also add, BoE like the Fed, have clearly abandoned their 2% target, they just won't publicly say it. If they were still targeting 2% they'd be hiking not cutting given we remain stubbornly above 2%. [Post edited 19 Feb 14:22]
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This government has a long, long job to first clean to Augean stables before it can move forwards. |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 15:45 - Feb 19 with 2301 views | Dubtractor |
| Labour isn't working ? on 13:43 - Feb 19 by baxterbasics |
I'm not naturally inclined to support or defend the current regime but I think it's only fair to point out that economies move in long cycles and it's not necessarily fair to judge anyone on just a few months in power. Look at how many still blame Thatcher or Blair (depending on which team they are in) for so many of our current ills.
Having said that, the start they are making is not encouraging... |
A change like this in inflation isn't something to get too excited about, to be honest, and as swanners says, the monthly change from Dec to January is actually a decrease. Appreciate that the annual movement is the consistent measure so not suggesting that should be ignored.
There are a few reasons for bashing the government, this isn't one if them. If we have another long period of inflation bobbing around 10%, as it did between April 22 and may 23, then we really should be worried! |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 16:47 - Feb 19 with 2187 views | BlueBadger |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:54 - Feb 19 by Herbivore |
Indeed. Rapid growth may well only be achieved by plundering natural resources harder and faster but that doesn't benefit anyone in the long run. There's not much point in having a booming economy when the planet is on fire and large swathes of it risk becoming uninhabitable. Those who tend to be anti-net zero tend to also be anti-immigration in my experience; if they think immigration is bad now, they're in for a nasty surprise if we don't rapidly address the climate crisis. |
Joined up government, come on now. |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 22:51 - Feb 19 with 1984 views | Libero |
I’m not a fan of this government, I think they leave a lot to be desired despite being in a very tricky position- but I do wish people had been this critical this early of the cabal of various correlations of Conservative ‘governments’ he had that have led us to this point.
The country is a total mess and it seems somewhat thick to be pinning it all on the new boys who haven’t even got their feet under the table yet- but that’s just my opinion… |  | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 23:05 - Feb 19 with 1954 views | Trequartista |
I notice that the monthly inflation rate was yet again announced as a "surprise" (whether it be underestimated or overestimated) to experts who predicted 2.8%.
"Experts".
Football results, covid predictions, election opinion polls, you name it, no-one can see into the future. Put your modelling toys away. |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 01:17 - Feb 20 with 1843 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:25 - Feb 19 by baxterbasics |
Oh I agree. Not the time to be adding costs to businesses of either direct taxes like NI or further regulatory burden.
They also need to decide which they will prioritise - net zero, or growth, and stop pretending they can do both. A healthy economy relies on plentiful and affordable energy. |
Second paragraph is culture war-esque nonsense.
Net zero can absolutely lead to growth, both through the growth of businesses supporting the decarbonised energy sector, plus through savings businesses and homeowners can make from renewable energy and grid balancing services. Many 'net zero measures' are absolute no brainers - reducing energy consumption, more intelligent energy use (time-wise), installing solar panels etc will lead to significant savings and even potentially income streams.
The Daily Telegraph has been predicting blackouts in the UK for about 15 or 20 years now. |  | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 08:31 - Feb 20 with 1656 views | Herbivore |
| Labour isn't working ? on 23:05 - Feb 19 by Trequartista |
I notice that the monthly inflation rate was yet again announced as a "surprise" (whether it be underestimated or overestimated) to experts who predicted 2.8%.
"Experts".
Football results, covid predictions, election opinion polls, you name it, no-one can see into the future. Put your modelling toys away. |
Bit of an odd take. When you're making forecasts where there are lots of variables at play the chances are you aren't going to get it spot on every time. You try and tweak your models to make them more accurate in response. What's the solution? Just scrap making forecasts because they might be 0.2% out? | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 10:53 - Feb 20 with 1457 views | Ryorry |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:30 - Feb 19 by Swansea_Blue |
Why can they not achieve growth by supporting and enabling companies to invest with confidence in the green economy, thereby moving us closer towards net zero? It’s one of the most rapidly growing sectors in the UK. |
I’ve been saying that for years, no idea why they’ve never listened to me!  |  |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 11:18 - Feb 20 with 1375 views | Trequartista |
| Labour isn't working ? on 08:31 - Feb 20 by Herbivore |
Bit of an odd take. When you're making forecasts where there are lots of variables at play the chances are you aren't going to get it spot on every time. You try and tweak your models to make them more accurate in response. What's the solution? Just scrap making forecasts because they might be 0.2% out? |
Yep. What is the point of forecasting inflation if it's consistently wrong. Wait for the real figures. Have a bit of patience. | |
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| Labour isn't working ? on 11:51 - Feb 20 with 1292 views | CoachRob |
| Labour isn't working ? on 23:05 - Feb 19 by Trequartista |
I notice that the monthly inflation rate was yet again announced as a "surprise" (whether it be underestimated or overestimated) to experts who predicted 2.8%.
"Experts".
Football results, covid predictions, election opinion polls, you name it, no-one can see into the future. Put your modelling toys away. |
There are two things here; firstly, you are right about Neoclassical economists being consistently wrong about inflation. The reason behind this is because the assumptions in their models are wrong and don't remotely reflect the real world. This makes them beyond useful and they should be discarded. The Bank of England currently has Ben Bernanke (the guy who completely missed the 2008 GFC) conducting a review of its inflation forecasting methodology and it won't improve as a result.
Secondly, as George Box said, "All models are wrong, but some models are useful" and if we use the correct techniques such as we have done with climate models (we have accurately predicted the near linear change in temperature/CO2 concentrations to this point). A colleague of mine who works at the London Mathematical Laboratory wrote a book about the problem of modelling. It is called Escape from Model Land by Erica Thompson and goes into the problems associated with complexity and nonlinear systems. |  | | |
| Labour isn't working ? on 12:02 - Feb 20 with 1205 views | NthQldITFC |
| Labour isn't working ? on 14:30 - Feb 19 by Swansea_Blue |
Why can they not achieve growth by supporting and enabling companies to invest with confidence in the green economy, thereby moving us closer towards net zero? It’s one of the most rapidly growing sectors in the UK. |
...is the only sane answer.
Along with weaning ourselves of the concept of perpetual growth which is a lunatic's idea of a modus operandi on a planet which is finite in its ability to provide raw materials and more importantly in its ability to absorb 'waste' products and energy and its ability to cope with an increasing population which dim-wittedly feels a wilfully detached entitlement to an increasing average consumer footprint. |  |
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