| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... 08:29 - Jun 8 with 23284 views | itfcjoe |
....according to the Times today.
Just seems so pointless to carry on as we are, when things are basically unlocked and it no doubt spreading quickly compared to how things change at June 21st.
Just sack off international travel for the year, end the lockdown and get the country vaccinated.
I'm just so bored of it all now, especially when such a vast %age of the population is vaccinated. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:23 - Jun 8 with 1562 views | jeera |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:22 - Jun 8 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Sounds like I would be safer on say a Greek island for 10 days while the rest of you stay here and take expensive tests to keep safe and line some Tory donors pockets! |
And the residents of that Greek island?
Really shouldn't have to be going through this again. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:31 - Jun 8 with 1556 views | textbackup |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 18:33 - Jun 8 by Kieran_Knows |
... because no doubt after those 2 weeks we’ll be saying the same thing again.
I’m basically just getting old and I think it’s just frustration that these last 18 months have been an epic fu*k up. |
what they should have done, because i'm sure they are bit worried about people diving in packed pubs for football, is when they set out this roadmap in the first place set it to end the day after the euro final....
but that would have meant using a brain cell or two [Post edited 8 Jun 2021 19:32]
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:33 - Jun 8 with 1553 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 18:59 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
I agree that 2-weeks will make little to no difference and will again just move the goalposts no doubt without a true sense of what measurable success is. The COVID numbers we’re talking about a ridiculously low to the point a doctor consultant friend of mine said they’re no longer prioritising COVID in patients in his A&E department.
Life has to move forward, people need escapism and it’s becoming paramount to some that life resumes to some kind of ‘normality’ for the good of mental health. |
This isn't really true though.
With exponential growth 2 weeks of extra data makes a massive difference. The same is true with regards to hospitalisations and infections because those are laggy indicators (the maths equivalent would be an moving average with a long period if it helps you visualise how more recent data takes a while to impact the numbers).
It's also not moving the goalposts. The goalposts were originally set given there were no variants, that is clear in the roadmap and to cite it as moving the goalposts now isn't really fair.
If you're confident of your appraisal of the current situation in the country then waiting a week or two longer isn't going to make much difference.
SB |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:40 - Jun 8 with 1529 views | footers |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:33 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
This isn't really true though.
With exponential growth 2 weeks of extra data makes a massive difference. The same is true with regards to hospitalisations and infections because those are laggy indicators (the maths equivalent would be an moving average with a long period if it helps you visualise how more recent data takes a while to impact the numbers).
It's also not moving the goalposts. The goalposts were originally set given there were no variants, that is clear in the roadmap and to cite it as moving the goalposts now isn't really fair.
If you're confident of your appraisal of the current situation in the country then waiting a week or two longer isn't going to make much difference.
SB |
As we're, hopefully, coming to the end of all this covid nonsense, would just like to say you've been a great bulwark against all the nonsense that's sometimes been posted on here, Stokie. Not all of us have the intelligence or patience to cover all the points you do and you do it in a very impartial way. Always backed by evidence, always thoughtful and always polite, it's done a great job of putting things into perspective and debunking some of the more outrageous stuff posted.
I'll buy you a beer soon. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:43 - Jun 8 with 1513 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:23 - Jun 8 by jeera |
And the residents of that Greek island?
Really shouldn't have to be going through this again. |
Something about being vaccinated and having a test before you go...which strangely I wouldn't have to do if going to Butlins in Bognor. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:57 - Jun 8 with 1496 views | textbackup |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:40 - Jun 8 by footers |
As we're, hopefully, coming to the end of all this covid nonsense, would just like to say you've been a great bulwark against all the nonsense that's sometimes been posted on here, Stokie. Not all of us have the intelligence or patience to cover all the points you do and you do it in a very impartial way. Always backed by evidence, always thoughtful and always polite, it's done a great job of putting things into perspective and debunking some of the more outrageous stuff posted.
I'll buy you a beer soon. |
ill second that. whatever my opinion, I wait to read stokes post to see if im thinking bollixs or not | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:58 - Jun 8 with 1488 views | jeera |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:43 - Jun 8 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Something about being vaccinated and having a test before you go...which strangely I wouldn't have to do if going to Butlins in Bognor. |
You posted about still being able to pass it on despite vaccination recently?
Apologies if that's wrong.
Not looking to insult you, (not anymore than normal anyway), but that does seem contradictory. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:59 - Jun 8 with 1486 views | SpruceMoose |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:23 - Jun 8 by jeera |
And the residents of that Greek island?
Really shouldn't have to be going through this again. |
It's not that he doesn't understand. He just doesn't value the knowledge. |  |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:08 - Jun 8 with 1472 views | Keaneish |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:33 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
This isn't really true though.
With exponential growth 2 weeks of extra data makes a massive difference. The same is true with regards to hospitalisations and infections because those are laggy indicators (the maths equivalent would be an moving average with a long period if it helps you visualise how more recent data takes a while to impact the numbers).
It's also not moving the goalposts. The goalposts were originally set given there were no variants, that is clear in the roadmap and to cite it as moving the goalposts now isn't really fair.
If you're confident of your appraisal of the current situation in the country then waiting a week or two longer isn't going to make much difference.
SB |
We can keep collecting, cutting and analysing data in perpetuity but at some point, a line needs to be drawn and normality needs to resume. 2-weeks now, another 2-weeks after, when will it end? There is no perfect end point to this which is sad for those catching COVID at this point.
We’ve waited 18-months and done everything asked of us and then some. Our lives have been put on hold and in that time, whether documented or not, I’m sure there have been many very variants and mutations.
I’ve got plans during the next two-weeks and those plans are happening. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:12 - Jun 8 with 1459 views | SpruceMoose |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:08 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
We can keep collecting, cutting and analysing data in perpetuity but at some point, a line needs to be drawn and normality needs to resume. 2-weeks now, another 2-weeks after, when will it end? There is no perfect end point to this which is sad for those catching COVID at this point.
We’ve waited 18-months and done everything asked of us and then some. Our lives have been put on hold and in that time, whether documented or not, I’m sure there have been many very variants and mutations.
I’ve got plans during the next two-weeks and those plans are happening. |
Perfect is the enemy of good. But is it good? Is it a sustainable good? Impatience and wishes and boredom don't impact reality sadly, and believe me, nobody wishes they could arrive at Heathrow tomorrow more than me. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:30 - Jun 8 with 1437 views | pointofblue |
Blimey, it's like a full circle has been achieved as those who profess to loathe the far right of the Tories are now embracing and agreeing with what they're saying. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:33 - Jun 8 with 1429 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:59 - Jun 8 by SpruceMoose |
It's not that he doesn't understand. He just doesn't value the knowledge. |
Oh I see, so the travel ban that isn't a travel ban is to protect the rest of the World from us...thank you for helping me to understand. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:34 - Jun 8 with 1422 views | SpruceMoose |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:33 - Jun 8 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Oh I see, so the travel ban that isn't a travel ban is to protect the rest of the World from us...thank you for helping me to understand. |
You've been no different throughout this whole thing. Like I said, you understand, you just don't care. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:43 - Jun 8 with 1405 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:08 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
We can keep collecting, cutting and analysing data in perpetuity but at some point, a line needs to be drawn and normality needs to resume. 2-weeks now, another 2-weeks after, when will it end? There is no perfect end point to this which is sad for those catching COVID at this point.
We’ve waited 18-months and done everything asked of us and then some. Our lives have been put on hold and in that time, whether documented or not, I’m sure there have been many very variants and mutations.
I’ve got plans during the next two-weeks and those plans are happening. |
Once again that's not really true. I am sure you are familiar with an exponential curve and how it starts of slowly and then increases at an ever increasing gradient. Given that if there is going to be a surge we are almost certainly in the flatter stage of the curve it's absolutely appropriate to wait a few weeks and see where we are when we would expect the gradient to start increasing. If it doesn't increase then that's excellent and we open up everything as planned, if it does increase we stay as we are or add local restrictions if needed.
All people are asking is that the decision isn't made now but made on the 20th when as much data as possible is available. It is always appropriate to use as much information as possible when making any decision.
The government outlined the roadmap months ago and one of the major clauses in that roadmap was that no new variants of concern were around otherwise the roadmap was subject to change. Just because you've decided to plan some things which you seem intent on doing regardless of the rules that doesn't change the fact that this was always a possibility. Let's be honest, we aren't really locked down very much at the moment and people can do many things.
"We’ve waited 18-months and done everything asked of us and then some. Our lives have been put on hold and in that time, whether documented or not, I’m sure there have been many very variants and mutations."
The UK has some of best gene sequencing facilities in the world, if there had been lots of other variants that caused concern in the UK that would have been known pretty quickly. I am not really sure what your point is here, the number of variants is irrelevant, all it takes is the one variant with the right mutations.
SB | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:53 - Jun 8 with 1389 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 19:40 - Jun 8 by footers |
As we're, hopefully, coming to the end of all this covid nonsense, would just like to say you've been a great bulwark against all the nonsense that's sometimes been posted on here, Stokie. Not all of us have the intelligence or patience to cover all the points you do and you do it in a very impartial way. Always backed by evidence, always thoughtful and always polite, it's done a great job of putting things into perspective and debunking some of the more outrageous stuff posted.
I'll buy you a beer soon. |
That's most kind, there is a lot of information out there, much of it very good and some of it very bad. It's not too much of a hardship to try and help people differentiate between the two.
Looking forward to that beer.
SB [Post edited 8 Jun 2021 20:59]
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:53 - Jun 8 with 1386 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:43 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
Once again that's not really true. I am sure you are familiar with an exponential curve and how it starts of slowly and then increases at an ever increasing gradient. Given that if there is going to be a surge we are almost certainly in the flatter stage of the curve it's absolutely appropriate to wait a few weeks and see where we are when we would expect the gradient to start increasing. If it doesn't increase then that's excellent and we open up everything as planned, if it does increase we stay as we are or add local restrictions if needed.
All people are asking is that the decision isn't made now but made on the 20th when as much data as possible is available. It is always appropriate to use as much information as possible when making any decision.
The government outlined the roadmap months ago and one of the major clauses in that roadmap was that no new variants of concern were around otherwise the roadmap was subject to change. Just because you've decided to plan some things which you seem intent on doing regardless of the rules that doesn't change the fact that this was always a possibility. Let's be honest, we aren't really locked down very much at the moment and people can do many things.
"We’ve waited 18-months and done everything asked of us and then some. Our lives have been put on hold and in that time, whether documented or not, I’m sure there have been many very variants and mutations."
The UK has some of best gene sequencing facilities in the world, if there had been lots of other variants that caused concern in the UK that would have been known pretty quickly. I am not really sure what your point is here, the number of variants is irrelevant, all it takes is the one variant with the right mutations.
SB |
This is another good take on the current situation, particularly focussed on the North West.
Double dosed, older people aren't heading to hospital. It's the younger cohort that are
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:15 - Jun 8 with 1356 views | Keaneish |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:12 - Jun 8 by SpruceMoose |
Perfect is the enemy of good. But is it good? Is it a sustainable good? Impatience and wishes and boredom don't impact reality sadly, and believe me, nobody wishes they could arrive at Heathrow tomorrow more than me. |
Impatience? 18-months...? | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:21 - Jun 8 with 1352 views | pointofblue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:15 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
Impatience? 18-months...? |
Which will be drawn out for even more months, with possibly stricter restrictions, if they make the wrong move now. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:32 - Jun 8 with 1342 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:21 - Jun 8 by pointofblue |
Which will be drawn out for even more months, with possibly stricter restrictions, if they make the wrong move now. |
And now Biden is raising the issue currently unfurling in the UK
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:34 - Jun 8 with 1334 views | SpruceMoose |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:15 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
Impatience? 18-months...? |
It's been the same amount of time for everyone. Some people have lived in better or worse places throughout. Personally I'm in no rush to have mobile morgues on my street again just because someone is bored and impatient. | |
| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:45 - Jun 8 with 1316 views | Keaneish |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:34 - Jun 8 by SpruceMoose |
It's been the same amount of time for everyone. Some people have lived in better or worse places throughout. Personally I'm in no rush to have mobile morgues on my street again just because someone is bored and impatient. |
I’m not sure whether it’s the over dramatisation, the polarisation or the over simplification in this post which I dislike the least. Have a downie anyway. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 22:10 - Jun 8 with 1282 views | SpruceMoose |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 21:45 - Jun 8 by Keaneish |
I’m not sure whether it’s the over dramatisation, the polarisation or the over simplification in this post which I dislike the least. Have a downie anyway. |
I really couldn't give a sh!t about your downvotes mate. Or your snidey reply.
You must have been pretty sheltered throughout all this if you're making such cruelly flippant remarks in response to someone expressing dismay at dead people being stored outside his front door for most of last year. I envy you. I envy that you were either spared it, or lacked the conscience to care about it. I mean, you sound like a tit, but still, I envy you.
Truth is, I just can't bring myself to care all that much about your vague complaints regarding 'impatience', not if it means things in the UK deteriorating to an extent that it extends the wait time of people like me before they get to see their families, including for myself the graves of relatives I've lost during the pandemic.
Especially as there doesn't even seem to be much you can't actually do right now anyway.
What exactly is it that you want to do which is so important but currently can't? [Post edited 8 Jun 2021 22:24]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 07:21 - Jun 9 with 1138 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:53 - Jun 8 by ElderGrizzly |
This is another good take on the current situation, particularly focussed on the North West.
Double dosed, older people aren't heading to hospital. It's the younger cohort that are
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Could the last graph in your post (re young people) represent say 2 admissions, followed by 3 and then maybe 5? (And likely 0 deaths)
It just seems that slowly the narrative is moving from deaths being the concern to simply testing positive, likely asymptomatically, for an illness. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 07:23 - Jun 9 with 1136 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 20:12 - Jun 8 by SpruceMoose |
Perfect is the enemy of good. But is it good? Is it a sustainable good? Impatience and wishes and boredom don't impact reality sadly, and believe me, nobody wishes they could arrive at Heathrow tomorrow more than me. |
Just pretend you're coming to buy a house....it will be fine! | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 07:30 - Jun 9 with 1121 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 07:21 - Jun 9 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Could the last graph in your post (re young people) represent say 2 admissions, followed by 3 and then maybe 5? (And likely 0 deaths)
It just seems that slowly the narrative is moving from deaths being the concern to simply testing positive, likely asymptomatically, for an illness. |
The last graph is about hospital admissions which clearly don't happen if you've tested positive but are asymptomatic.
Deaths lag admissions and admissions lag cases. We won't know the full picture for a few weeks hence the calls for caution and using the data at the appropriate time rather than deciding now based on an arbitrary date.
SB | | | |
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