| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... 08:29 - Jun 8 with 18972 views | itfcjoe |
....according to the Times today.
Just seems so pointless to carry on as we are, when things are basically unlocked and it no doubt spreading quickly compared to how things change at June 21st.
Just sack off international travel for the year, end the lockdown and get the country vaccinated.
I'm just so bored of it all now, especially when such a vast %age of the population is vaccinated. |  |
| |  |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:21 - Jun 8 with 1987 views | mikeybloo88 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:14 - Jun 8 by tonybied |
You also have to remember you have to take into account that it still takes another 3-4 weeks after the injection that the patients immunity is fully primed. |
Three weeks tops I believe...you also have to bear in mind that for many many people those three weeks will be passing in areas with very low to no case numbers, so the chance of double jabbed people getting ill is extremely low. |  | | |
| I broadly agree..... on 10:21 - Jun 8 with 1982 views | ElderGrizzly |
| I broadly agree..... on 10:13 - Jun 8 by Bloots |
....there are plainly some situations that are more "dangerous" than others.
There is room for some relaxation, particularly around outdoor events whilst keeping some limitations around the obvious indoor "hotspots". |
And that is exactly what we will see.
Johnson said lockdown easing was irreversible, if he releases something, however small he'll say he has met his promise |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:26 - Jun 8 with 1948 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:17 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
Then we delay moving to being fully open and either keep where we are or even roll back one step. It's going to be much better in the long run to not open up everything and avoid a full-on lockdown later rather than wait a couple of weeks, especially given people can still meet family and friends at the moment.
I think "most vulnerable" is a bit of a red herring. There are vulnerable people across all age ranges and other factors such as weight can affect how younger people get C19. There will also be a number of "younger" people with undiagnosed conditions which will make them vulnerable.
Fully appreciate it's all a matter of risk appetite but for the sake of a few weeks I just don't think it's worth rushing. We already know that the protection from AZ for the Delta variant could be as low as 68% so if we open up with an R of 1.5 we know lots of vaccinated people are going to get C19, what we don't know are the implications for long covid and hospitalisations.
SB |
I agree but just don't see it being a delay of a few weeks that solves everything. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:29 - Jun 8 with 1931 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:26 - Jun 8 by PrideOfTheEast |
I agree but just don't see it being a delay of a few weeks that solves everything. |
Indeed, however a delay of a few weeks gives us time to get some proper data and map out a course which does hopefully resolve most of the issues. It also allows for more people to get vaccinated.
I've had my second dose moved forward to the 23rd, if we can get enough people moved and double-vaccinated it makes a difference.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:31 - Jun 8 with 1925 views | Mookamoo |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:15 - Jun 8 by ElderGrizzly |
Some data yesterday:
Of 100 cases in a hospital over the weekend, 3 were double dosed.
[Post edited 8 Jun 2021 10:18]
|
It would be useful to know out of those 83, how many have been offered the vaccine and refused/deferred. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:32 - Jun 8 with 1915 views | tonybied |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:21 - Jun 8 by mikeybloo88 |
Three weeks tops I believe...you also have to bear in mind that for many many people those three weeks will be passing in areas with very low to no case numbers, so the chance of double jabbed people getting ill is extremely low. |
I took an antibody test 3 1/2 weeks after my first jab and showed no antibodies. Granted the antibody test is not 100% reliable and I'd only had one jab but it's still advised in the antibody test instructions that you may not show immunity after 3-4 weeks. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:36 - Jun 8 with 1890 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:31 - Jun 8 by Mookamoo |
It would be useful to know out of those 83, how many have been offered the vaccine and refused/deferred. |
Yep. I linked to a study (page 5 I think) where it shows vaccinations by ethnicity.
There is definitely vaccine hesitancy in some groups of the population and sadly they tend to be where the highest numbers of cases and hospitalisations are. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:39 - Jun 8 with 1860 views | chicoazul |
Good to see lots of people in this thread finally understand why Vaccine Passports are a terrible authoritarian racist and classist idea. You all come round to Chico Thinking in the end even if you don’t know it. |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:40 - Jun 8 with 1854 views | m14_blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by Bluefish |
How would an end to international travel help the Alpha variant?
What does a person visiting from abroad spread more than the people living here with current infections? |
It's always portrayed as a silver bullet but it's obviously not anything close.
It always annoys me slightly when people talk about 'closing the borders' as if it's a trivial thing and people should just go to Blackpool instead of Benidorm and stop being so selfish.
We lost my mum in the first wave last year. In the 14 months since, my widowed dad has seen his (other) son once, at a funeral which only 4 of us could attend, and hasn't seen his granddaughter at all.
Stopping international travel is a huge deal with huge repercussions for many people's lives, if you only go abroad once a year for a jolly then it's not unreasonable to skip that for another year but don't think everyone has the same luxury. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:42 - Jun 8 with 1836 views | Pinewoodblue |
Boris Johnson has backed himself into a position where he cannot win. He doesn’t want to ease restrictions and then be forced to reimpose them, he also wants to avoid imposing tighter restrictions on geographical basis.
Cases are rising but not evenly across the Country. There are over 100 new cases,over a 7 day period, per 100,000 in North West with Blackburn having over 500. Yet in other areas there are less than 10 new cases per 100,000.
The latest published figure for Suffolk in just 7, per 100,000. It is even lower than that in Ipswich, Babergh and East Suffolk.
Pushing back a change only kicks the can down the road.
We need a revised strategy, time for a rethink. |  |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:46 - Jun 8 with 1807 views | DebsyAngel |
It will be "2 weeks", which then becomes 2 months, then 6 months... I have had my 2 jabs now and if I cannot start to emerge slowly and carefully soon, then I may as well give up trying. It's going to be like learning to walk for me all over again because of my anxiety and fear. I want to hug my parents, not feel like they are strangers, but they too are scared and not been out other than shopping even though both had their 2nd jabs a couple of months back. I just see all this as carrot dangling - get within the grasp and it whizzes off 6 months into the future again. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:53 - Jun 8 with 1768 views | SaleAway |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:46 - Jun 8 by DebsyAngel |
It will be "2 weeks", which then becomes 2 months, then 6 months... I have had my 2 jabs now and if I cannot start to emerge slowly and carefully soon, then I may as well give up trying. It's going to be like learning to walk for me all over again because of my anxiety and fear. I want to hug my parents, not feel like they are strangers, but they too are scared and not been out other than shopping even though both had their 2nd jabs a couple of months back. I just see all this as carrot dangling - get within the grasp and it whizzes off 6 months into the future again. |
Sorry to hear about your fear and anxiety, but in relation to the lockdown measures, there's nothing stopping you from hugging your parents, and going out - if anything, the current rules should make it easier for you to emerge, as there are limitations on big groups etc.
We all need to accept that there is some risk around still ( much worse in some areas than others), and even if the rules are removed or loosened on the 21st of june, its not going to mean that there is no risk.
Everyone should be assessing their own risk profiles and what they do/don't want to do.... for example, I hug my family, but am still refraining from hugging friends, that I would have done in the past. | |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:07 - Jun 8 with 1727 views | Guthrum |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:58 - Jun 8 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
But the cost of relief measures is a huge economic burden isn’t it? |
In emergencies, one has to spend. Same as if there was a major war.
Plus borrowing is incredibly cheap for governments at the moment. Can be paid back over many decades. |  |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:09 - Jun 8 with 1716 views | farkenhell |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:40 - Jun 8 by m14_blue |
It's always portrayed as a silver bullet but it's obviously not anything close.
It always annoys me slightly when people talk about 'closing the borders' as if it's a trivial thing and people should just go to Blackpool instead of Benidorm and stop being so selfish.
We lost my mum in the first wave last year. In the 14 months since, my widowed dad has seen his (other) son once, at a funeral which only 4 of us could attend, and hasn't seen his granddaughter at all.
Stopping international travel is a huge deal with huge repercussions for many people's lives, if you only go abroad once a year for a jolly then it's not unreasonable to skip that for another year but don't think everyone has the same luxury. |
I'm sorry to hear that and can understand where you are coming from. However, for most people, international travel is a jolly, it's not essential and, for this year, if they really must "get away", then they should go to Blackpool instead of Benidorm. And for those, it really should not be a huge deal. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:12 - Jun 8 with 1698 views | Pinewoodblue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:07 - Jun 8 by Guthrum |
In emergencies, one has to spend. Same as if there was a major war.
Plus borrowing is incredibly cheap for governments at the moment. Can be paid back over many decades. |
Problem though is that the money isn't being borrowed over several decades. Greece, Italy, Ireland took that view in the past but found, when fresh loans were needed to pay existing loans that interest rates had risen. | |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:14 - Jun 8 with 1686 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:12 - Jun 8 by Pinewoodblue |
Problem though is that the money isn't being borrowed over several decades. Greece, Italy, Ireland took that view in the past but found, when fresh loans were needed to pay existing loans that interest rates had risen. |
That's not quite right.
Debt only has to be rolled at maturity so if you borrow short-term then you have to roll that debt quickly and possibly at a higher interest rate. If you issue 10 or 20 year bonds then you have that fixed rate for that time and then you roll at that point. Now it's possible the rates will have risen but the cost of the debt over time is fixed at the current rates.
Also worth noting that those countries issued debt in a currency they don't control (EUR) whereas if you issue in a currency you do control (GBP) you always have the option of printing as a last resort.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:16 - Jun 8 with 1670 views | m14_blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:09 - Jun 8 by farkenhell |
I'm sorry to hear that and can understand where you are coming from. However, for most people, international travel is a jolly, it's not essential and, for this year, if they really must "get away", then they should go to Blackpool instead of Benidorm. And for those, it really should not be a huge deal. |
I don't disagree, and I don't necessarily disagree that border restrictions should remain (and be properly enforced), it just shouldn't be underestimated how big an impact that will have on many people's lives. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:23 - Jun 8 with 1634 views | GiroJim |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe |
The variant has been here for weeks now and hasn't had that impact.
Everyone knew a further lockdown was coming last time because we never got the numbers low enough and we had no vaccine......maybe not as long or severe as it has ended up being but it's a different ball game now |
It may have an impact with foreign travel being allowed. Id stop all flights for holidays this year. Only business and important private reasons for flights this year. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:31 - Jun 8 with 1623 views | RRB |
Why is everyone using number of cases as to why we need to delay by 2 weeks?
If there were thousands of cases of cold and flu spreading you wouldn't be putting us in lockdown.
The only important numbers we need to watch are hospital omissions and deaths which are not rising anywhere near compared to the number of cases. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:34 - Jun 8 with 1606 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:31 - Jun 8 by RRB |
Why is everyone using number of cases as to why we need to delay by 2 weeks?
If there were thousands of cases of cold and flu spreading you wouldn't be putting us in lockdown.
The only important numbers we need to watch are hospital omissions and deaths which are not rising anywhere near compared to the number of cases. |
Don't you think we are about a year past the flu false equivalences?
The reasons people have said this are explained in the thread, I suggest you go back and read it.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:50 - Jun 8 with 1573 views | RRB |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:34 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
Don't you think we are about a year past the flu false equivalences?
The reasons people have said this are explained in the thread, I suggest you go back and read it.
SB |
How is it a false equivalent?
A lot of the country are now vaccine except the age groups that are not venerable to it.
If it wasn't for vaccines for Flu we would be in the exact same situation as we are now for covid | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:52 - Jun 8 with 1559 views | Ryorry |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:39 - Jun 8 by Cotty |
Cases are currently doubling every 10 days or so. It doesn't take a mathematician to figure where we're going to be in a month's time if nothing is done. If cases are rising, they are rising exponentially, and if that is the case, we need to do something fast to curb the spread. Studies have shown that you really need the second jab to have decent protection against the delta variant, it's a race against time to get second jabs into people, and currently it's clear that it's a race that we're currently losing. |
And as the old saying goes, why spoil the 15 months' work in building the ship for a ha'pworth of tar.
I do feel for the hospitality & holiday industries tho, most of them need this summer to survive. |  |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:54 - Jun 8 with 1558 views | footers |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:50 - Jun 8 by RRB |
How is it a false equivalent?
A lot of the country are now vaccine except the age groups that are not venerable to it.
If it wasn't for vaccines for Flu we would be in the exact same situation as we are now for covid |
You don't even know the difference between admissions and omissions, so think epidemiology may be slightly above your pay grade. |  |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:55 - Jun 8 with 1547 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:50 - Jun 8 by RRB |
How is it a false equivalent?
A lot of the country are now vaccine except the age groups that are not venerable to it.
If it wasn't for vaccines for Flu we would be in the exact same situation as we are now for covid |
It's a complete false equivalence.
"If it wasn't for vaccines for Flu we would be in the exact same situation as we are now for covid"
That is incorrect.
The flu vaccines are nowhere near as high an efficacy as the covid vaccines and thus they have a smaller affect on the number of flu cases and deaths. Seasonal Flu is also far less contagious (it's baseline R is far lower than C19) and has a far lower mortality rate. There is no comparison between the two except for the fact they are both respiratory diseases. Seasonal Flu has been virtually eliminated by the C19 measures whilst C19 has killed 130k people.
I am frankly astonished that I am having to explain this 15 months into a pandemic.
Perhaps it's time to do some reading, understand the science and make more informed posts.
SB [Post edited 8 Jun 2021 11:56]
| |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 12:01 - Jun 8 with 1507 views | XYZ |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 11:14 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
That's not quite right.
Debt only has to be rolled at maturity so if you borrow short-term then you have to roll that debt quickly and possibly at a higher interest rate. If you issue 10 or 20 year bonds then you have that fixed rate for that time and then you roll at that point. Now it's possible the rates will have risen but the cost of the debt over time is fixed at the current rates.
Also worth noting that those countries issued debt in a currency they don't control (EUR) whereas if you issue in a currency you do control (GBP) you always have the option of printing as a last resort.
SB |
Printing £s in large numbers has been regular UK policy since 2008.
£500 billion in the last year I believe. | | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
