| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... 08:29 - Jun 8 with 18971 views | itfcjoe |
....according to the Times today.
Just seems so pointless to carry on as we are, when things are basically unlocked and it no doubt spreading quickly compared to how things change at June 21st.
Just sack off international travel for the year, end the lockdown and get the country vaccinated.
I'm just so bored of it all now, especially when such a vast %age of the population is vaccinated. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 with 1234 views | Ely_Blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:31 - Jun 8 by SomethingBlue |
Unquestionably a resigning matter for the Prime Minister, then, given his actions in allowing the Indian variant to thrive. |
Arguably you could say it’s the actions of the people returning to the UK from India and not isolating that have caused the spread of the delta variant, just as it was the people returning from summer holidays just before the schools returned last September and not doing the same that caused the issues then too.
I’m not pro BoJo by a long way but sometimes people have to stop expecting the government to wipe their backsides for them and take some responsibility |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:55 - Jun 8 with 1224 views | itfcjoe |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:49 - Jun 8 by Bluefish |
The virus us here so can mutate at any time. It doesn't just come from foreigners as the papers like to push. The country would ground to a halt pretty quick without international travel. |
The virus is much more likely to mutate in countries with lower vaccination rates (i.e. basically everywhere but here) - it's nothing to do with 'foreigners' | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:55 - Jun 8 with 1205 views | Bluefish |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:55 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe |
The virus is much more likely to mutate in countries with lower vaccination rates (i.e. basically everywhere but here) - it's nothing to do with 'foreigners' |
That narrative about international travel has been pushed even when we had the highest rates |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:56 - Jun 8 with 1204 views | Cotty |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe |
But as things stand, with the lockdown as relaxed as it is now - i.e. pubs open, restuarants, shops, gyms, and everything else you can think of......what is being done to actually *stop* the variant as it is?
Does the further unlocking speed it up, probably but if it is out of control in the current restrictions then the doubling is going to continue in single figure days as it is......and all the while we are happy to let people travel around the world, and into the country if they fancy a holiday.
Seems madness to me to do it that way, and a big part of the reason we are where we are.
But in simple terms, how does extending what we are doing, that isn't working anyway, make much difference? |
I agree. We should probably be looking at a short term retightening of restrictions while we rush to get everyone double-jabbed as quickly as possible, but that seems politically impossible for this government who have repeatedly painted themselves into this corner. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:59 - Jun 8 with 1179 views | Guthrum |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:49 - Jun 8 by Bluefish |
The virus us here so can mutate at any time. It doesn't just come from foreigners as the papers like to push. The country would ground to a halt pretty quick without international travel. |
Travel from widely separated locations is likely to import different variations. More so than may develop domestically.
There's a difference between necessary international travel (business, urgent family reasons) and unnecessary (holidays). |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:00 - Jun 8 with 1163 views | itfcjoe |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:55 - Jun 8 by Bluefish |
That narrative about international travel has been pushed even when we had the highest rates |
What difference does that make?
It's still without doubt the quickest way to see mutations spread. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:01 - Jun 8 with 1156 views | pointofblue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe |
But as things stand, with the lockdown as relaxed as it is now - i.e. pubs open, restuarants, shops, gyms, and everything else you can think of......what is being done to actually *stop* the variant as it is?
Does the further unlocking speed it up, probably but if it is out of control in the current restrictions then the doubling is going to continue in single figure days as it is......and all the while we are happy to let people travel around the world, and into the country if they fancy a holiday.
Seems madness to me to do it that way, and a big part of the reason we are where we are.
But in simple terms, how does extending what we are doing, that isn't working anyway, make much difference? |
I agree - I said yesterday the biggest problem the government has is not extending “Freedom Day” by a couple of weeks but having to consider taking a step back on the roadmap.
If cases continue to rise but hospital attendance and deaths do not then the whole situation is manageable under the current approach except we will, of course, be opening ourselves up to a further mutation. The most obvious thing to have done is ban international travel but it feels too late now. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:02 - Jun 8 with 1156 views | itfcpaul |
I will say from what I am aware of, that it will be longer then 2 weeks and maybe even a step back is being planned if things get any worse, certainly on hospital admissions, there are a number of people who have had 2 jabs now being taken ill and into hospital | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:02 - Jun 8 with 1149 views | bluelagos |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God |
Completely pointless.
Zero deaths the other day, what more do they want? |
The issue is the number of new cases is rising. That means the virus is growing and will continue to do so. From a low base yeah, but that doesn't mean it stops. And opening up further (E.g. Nightclubs, festivals) will mean that growth rate increases.
On the plus side, most of our most vulnerable are now vaccinated/protected.
For me, the issue is we have been told the vaccinations are the answer when it appears they are anything but. The virus can still spread, you can still get ill (albeit less likely to die), the hospitals can still get over run, and every time it's passed on you get another mutation.
So it looks like the numbers dictate we hold off until more of us are vaccinated - or risk yet another stricter lockdown later on.
For me - the current restrictions are so much better than the tighter ones. Yeah the final steps/relaxations would be nice - but at the price of having to take three steps back again in a few months? If delaying it a few weeks is the price, so be it. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:03 - Jun 8 with 1143 views | itfcpaul |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God |
Completely pointless.
Zero deaths the other day, what more do they want? |
Zero deaths on a bank holiday Sunday, hardly a good day to choose as a barometer of deaths now is it!!! | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:04 - Jun 8 with 1132 views | hype313 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:01 - Jun 8 by pointofblue |
I agree - I said yesterday the biggest problem the government has is not extending “Freedom Day” by a couple of weeks but having to consider taking a step back on the roadmap.
If cases continue to rise but hospital attendance and deaths do not then the whole situation is manageable under the current approach except we will, of course, be opening ourselves up to a further mutation. The most obvious thing to have done is ban international travel but it feels too late now. |
My Neighbour who works at Ipswich Hospital told me yesterday that they haven't had a single Covid patient for 5 weeks. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:08 - Jun 8 with 1105 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:31 - Jun 8 by SomethingBlue |
Unquestionably a resigning matter for the Prime Minister, then, given his actions in allowing the Indian variant to thrive. |
This is certainly true, although it's worth pointing out that without a totally closed immigration system like Australia that the variants will usually be here before any remedial action can be taken.
If we don't want them we need to totally close the border and people will have to accept they won't go to Spain for their holidays this year.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:09 - Jun 8 with 1102 views | Swansea_Blue |
We're all bored of it, but lose control of a more infectious variant and we're back into another 4 months of tighter restrictions.
The frustration is that we needn't have been in this position, but we are where we are an all that. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:10 - Jun 8 with 1092 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe |
The variant has been here for weeks now and hasn't had that impact.
Everyone knew a further lockdown was coming last time because we never got the numbers low enough and we had no vaccine......maybe not as long or severe as it has ended up being but it's a different ball game now |
This isn't true.
The variant is having an impact. We have gone from an R of 0.6 to at least 1.2. Once it gets above 1 the cases start growing exponentially. People still get C19 even when vaccinated and possibly long covid as well.
I really don't understand the issue with extending the current rules a few weeks or a month. People can still meet, do we really need x10 as many people in pubs all standing and squashed together right now?
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:10 - Jun 8 with 1096 views | Ely_Blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:02 - Jun 8 by itfcpaul |
I will say from what I am aware of, that it will be longer then 2 weeks and maybe even a step back is being planned if things get any worse, certainly on hospital admissions, there are a number of people who have had 2 jabs now being taken ill and into hospital |
The only people who are being hospitalised after having 2 jabs seem to be those who only recently received their 2nd dose, it takes around 3 weeks post 2nd jab to build up full immunity/protection and I am lead to believe that is the reason behind possibly delaying by a couple of weeks - to ensure all the over 50s have got a 2nd jab and have that crucial 3 week period to build up protection | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:11 - Jun 8 with 1089 views | SomethingBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 by Ely_Blue |
Arguably you could say it’s the actions of the people returning to the UK from India and not isolating that have caused the spread of the delta variant, just as it was the people returning from summer holidays just before the schools returned last September and not doing the same that caused the issues then too.
I’m not pro BoJo by a long way but sometimes people have to stop expecting the government to wipe their backsides for them and take some responsibility |
I'm not sure asking arrivals from India to undergo hotel quarantine as soon as the situation over there began to look serious would have been "wiping backsides", in fairness. Yes there's a degree of personal responsibility to everything but don't let the government blame everyone bar themselves. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:11 - Jun 8 with 1089 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Kieran_Knows |
You're right, it's beyond boring now. Cooped up for the best part of 18 months and want to delay it another 2 weeks for what reason exactly? |
There are a number of reasons in this post as well as links to the source materials. If you don't want to read the studies and look at the data then you're never going to understand the reasoning.
This is why the decisions around the 21st June should be data driven by StokieBlue 7 Jun 2021 23:09Already there are a number of MPs and media outlets calling for an end to all restrictions regardless of the data on the 21st June. This article outlines why the decision must be driven by the data rather than some arbitrary date set months ago before the Delta variant was around.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/07/could-a-third-wave-of-covid-be-more-serious-than-uk-first-two-delta-variant [*]
Essentially it boils down to at the moment we simply don't know enough about the Delta variant to make accurate predictions.
Some specifics from the article:
- The Delta variant is likely between 30% and 100% more transmissible than the Kent variant.
- The Delta variant is possibly associated with a twofold increase in the likelihood of hospitalisation.
- Hospitalisations could reach between 6000 and 10000 per day if restrictions were fully eased.
- Calculations point to an R that is well above one across most areas of Britain at the current time.
What isn't known is the effect that vaccinations will have on any peak of cases, it will definitely help but there is a 17% reduction in efficacy after a single dose with regards to the Delta variant. There are also concerns over long-covid and the fact that there are still many adults who aren't vaccinated (often through choice of course). It's also entirely possible that the vaccines will still offer excellent protection against severe covid.
In the end given all this it would seem ridiculous to rush into anything until a lot of the variables above can be adequately assigned a value and their effects calculated.
I know it's not something any of us want to hear but realism is probably better than ignoring data and going for a date without reasoning.
SB
[*] There are links to the actual SAGE minutes and reports in the article (such as the Warwick Universiry report on the likely admissions per day based on transmissibility).
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:13 - Jun 8 with 1070 views | eireblue |
"It would be monstrous to cancel Christmas."
That went well. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:13 - Jun 8 with 1072 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:02 - Jun 8 by bluelagos |
The issue is the number of new cases is rising. That means the virus is growing and will continue to do so. From a low base yeah, but that doesn't mean it stops. And opening up further (E.g. Nightclubs, festivals) will mean that growth rate increases.
On the plus side, most of our most vulnerable are now vaccinated/protected.
For me, the issue is we have been told the vaccinations are the answer when it appears they are anything but. The virus can still spread, you can still get ill (albeit less likely to die), the hospitals can still get over run, and every time it's passed on you get another mutation.
So it looks like the numbers dictate we hold off until more of us are vaccinated - or risk yet another stricter lockdown later on.
For me - the current restrictions are so much better than the tighter ones. Yeah the final steps/relaxations would be nice - but at the price of having to take three steps back again in a few months? If delaying it a few weeks is the price, so be it. |
"For me, the issue is we have been told the vaccinations are the answer when it appears they are anything but. The virus can still spread, you can still get ill (albeit less likely to die), the hospitals can still get over run, and every time it's passed on you get another mutation."
They are the answer. As soon as you reach a certain level (90% vaccinated would be nice) the fact that they reduce the chance of spread means that it's much harder for the virus to infect people. As we stand there are still a lot of vectors which allow the virus to spread.
We need to really push to get the vaccinations up to a level where we need them although there might be issues with some people not wanting it.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:15 - Jun 8 with 1065 views | Ftnfwest |
Just kicking the can down the road, viruses develop mutations, that will go on for years. The vulnerable are vaccinated (aside from those who have chosen not to be). What NZ and Aussies have done for instance is admirable (albeit with tiny original case numbers) but they seem to be backing themselves into a corner of isolation by aiming at essentially zero covid. The minute they have a couple of cases they lock down, which i can't square with international travel there ever being back to anything like normal. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:15 - Jun 8 with 1058 views | TractorCam |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:02 - Jun 8 by bluelagos |
The issue is the number of new cases is rising. That means the virus is growing and will continue to do so. From a low base yeah, but that doesn't mean it stops. And opening up further (E.g. Nightclubs, festivals) will mean that growth rate increases.
On the plus side, most of our most vulnerable are now vaccinated/protected.
For me, the issue is we have been told the vaccinations are the answer when it appears they are anything but. The virus can still spread, you can still get ill (albeit less likely to die), the hospitals can still get over run, and every time it's passed on you get another mutation.
So it looks like the numbers dictate we hold off until more of us are vaccinated - or risk yet another stricter lockdown later on.
For me - the current restrictions are so much better than the tighter ones. Yeah the final steps/relaxations would be nice - but at the price of having to take three steps back again in a few months? If delaying it a few weeks is the price, so be it. |
Hardly a shock is it though, virus mutates and cases go up when things open up more, it's not surprising.
The numbers for hospitalisations/ deaths give no reason to extend a lockdown period. My main reason for this is there's no guarantee you can say that delaying for a few weeks will make everything crystal in a few months.
The vaccines are working and over 50% including the majority of vulnerable have been fully vaccinated. This road map has worked a treat, one of few things they've got right regarding the pandemic. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:15 - Jun 8 with 1061 views | Ely_Blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:11 - Jun 8 by SomethingBlue |
I'm not sure asking arrivals from India to undergo hotel quarantine as soon as the situation over there began to look serious would have been "wiping backsides", in fairness. Yes there's a degree of personal responsibility to everything but don't let the government blame everyone bar themselves. |
So are you saying you think the people who returned from India followed the amber guidelines? | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:16 - Jun 8 with 1055 views | bluelagos |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:10 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
This isn't true.
The variant is having an impact. We have gone from an R of 0.6 to at least 1.2. Once it gets above 1 the cases start growing exponentially. People still get C19 even when vaccinated and possibly long covid as well.
I really don't understand the issue with extending the current rules a few weeks or a month. People can still meet, do we really need x10 as many people in pubs all standing and squashed together right now?
SB |
I am reluctantly with you Stokie. The current restrictions are so much better than the full lockdown. A few more weeks of these is manageable for most people - a return to a full lockdown would be unforgivable if it was down to a rushed decision/opening up against the advice. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:18 - Jun 8 with 1047 views | clive_baker |
Does anyone have any idea how many people are hospitalised at the moment from Covid? My wife's hospital is pretty much empty. I appreciate cases are rising, but if they're among younger people who it's typically less dangerous for, and the vaccine is proving effective at keeping those vaccinated safe, then is there really a mandate for remaining in a lockdown?
Having said that, practically speaking (and somewhat selfishly) I'm not sure what will actually change on 21st June. It would be nice, symbolically I guess, to 'end lockdown', but in reality I'm not sure what freedoms it would allow us that we would actually benefit from in that period that we don't already have. I appreciate everyone's circumstances are different, but personally I don't think it would make much difference. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:19 - Jun 8 with 1029 views | itfcpaul |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:10 - Jun 8 by Ely_Blue |
The only people who are being hospitalised after having 2 jabs seem to be those who only recently received their 2nd dose, it takes around 3 weeks post 2nd jab to build up full immunity/protection and I am lead to believe that is the reason behind possibly delaying by a couple of weeks - to ensure all the over 50s have got a 2nd jab and have that crucial 3 week period to build up protection |
What work area are you employed in? | |
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