| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... 08:29 - Jun 8 with 18970 views | itfcjoe |
....according to the Times today.
Just seems so pointless to carry on as we are, when things are basically unlocked and it no doubt spreading quickly compared to how things change at June 21st.
Just sack off international travel for the year, end the lockdown and get the country vaccinated.
I'm just so bored of it all now, especially when such a vast %age of the population is vaccinated. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:00 - Jun 8 with 696 views | clive_baker |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:47 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
Exactly.
However because C19 data is by it's nature quite laggy we won't be able to compile that data for a few weeks at least. That is why the decision needs to be made in a few weeks time based on the actual data rather than made now based on a politically ideal roadmap created before the Delta variant was around.
SB |
Absolutely, I'm not disputing that. It would be interesting to see how infection rates of mid May are now impacting hospitalisations. As you say, we won't know what todays infections are doing, but the spike from the 'Indian variant' originated over 2 weeks ago, so I would be keen to understand if they're playing through into hospitalisations, and if so to what extent and among whom. I'm absolutely not adverse to extending lockdown, I'm just a data nerd and would be very interested to see how those have evolved over the past 8 weeks or so |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 with 679 views | hype313 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:39 - Jun 8 by Cotty |
Most people do not have 2 vaccinations yet. |
Double dose stats.
80+ 93%
75-79 97%
70-74 95.5%
65-69 93%
55-59 81%
50-54 71%
I'd argue that the most vulnerable have, certainly the ones that would cause the NHS problems. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 with 681 views | itfcpaul |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:58 - Jun 8 by ThisIsMyUsername |
They're doing everything they can to get us back to some sort of a 'normal' life ASAP. |
Do you actually believe that, if so I despair
They are doing everything is just not the truth and never has been |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 with 677 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:51 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
Once again though that data is pretty irrelevant if you want to see the actual picture, the R is now above 1 across the whole country from modelling (and quite substantially above 1 in some areas) so given the time it takes for C19 to infect and then affect the host the numbers in 2 or 3 weeks are the ones that are important, not the numbers today.
That is why a short delay should be provisioned to get all the data. Nobody is saying cancel the grand opening but lets do it based on data and not sentiment.
SB |
That's right re the data. If we delay two weeks and see the R number is 1.5 or whatever - what happens then? The most vulnerable in this country will be vaccinated or would have had the opportunity to be vaccinated. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:03 - Jun 8 with 663 views | homer_123 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:22 - Jun 8 by StokieBlue |
We are barely locked down at the moment.
Can you give an example of something you really must do on the 21st June which you can't do at the moment and that would be awful if you had to wait another couple of weeks?
SB |
Indeed - thus I am struggling to really understand what would be so problematic if the current status quo was kept for a further two or three weeks to assess further data.
That doesn't detract from the fact that more stringent restrictions may need to be put back in if things deteriorate.
What's more, for once, the gov have been pretty clear about the roadmap to the 21st. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:03 - Jun 8 with 662 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:00 - Jun 8 by clive_baker |
Absolutely, I'm not disputing that. It would be interesting to see how infection rates of mid May are now impacting hospitalisations. As you say, we won't know what todays infections are doing, but the spike from the 'Indian variant' originated over 2 weeks ago, so I would be keen to understand if they're playing through into hospitalisations, and if so to what extent and among whom. I'm absolutely not adverse to extending lockdown, I'm just a data nerd and would be very interested to see how those have evolved over the past 8 weeks or so |
Yep, would be good to see all the data. There are some modelling papers in link in my other thread with regards to the possible number of hospitalisations and the current predicted R.
The R only really rose above 1 very recently so I don't think the original spike from 2 weeks ago is the "real" spike as exponential growth obviously starts slowly before ramping up.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:04 - Jun 8 with 654 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 by itfcpaul |
Do you actually believe that, if so I despair
They are doing everything is just not the truth and never has been |
My post was ever so slightly sarcastic. |  |
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| Too late now..... on 10:07 - Jun 8 with 641 views | Bloots |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:04 - Jun 8 by ThisIsMyUsername |
My post was ever so slightly sarcastic. |
.....you're going to be forever labelled as a racist covid denier on here now.
I just considered agreeing with Paz on something, but if I did I'd be ostracised forever and put in TWTD prison. |  |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:07 - Jun 8 with 630 views | mikeybloo88 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:10 - Jun 8 by Ely_Blue |
The only people who are being hospitalised after having 2 jabs seem to be those who only recently received their 2nd dose, it takes around 3 weeks post 2nd jab to build up full immunity/protection and I am lead to believe that is the reason behind possibly delaying by a couple of weeks - to ensure all the over 50s have got a 2nd jab and have that crucial 3 week period to build up protection |
Times reports that out of 126 people in hospital, 3 have been jabbed twice, 20 or so jabbed once, and the rest no jab. Looks like the vaccines do their job to me...yet to be seen how many and which of these folk will actually die, but odds are not many if any who have been jabbed. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:07 - Jun 8 with 635 views | eireblue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:58 - Jun 8 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
But the cost of relief measures is a huge economic burden isn’t it? |
Much like other things that a Government spend money on, that in other times a Government wouldn't spend money on.
It should be the first duty of government in a democratic society to protect and safeguard the lives of its citizens.
Sometimes that may mean splashing cash on Nuclear Weapons that won't get used.
Sometimes that may mean investing in mental health services and supporting people in times of financial hardship.
Some people, never seem to forget that you should spend lots of money on Weapons of Mass Destruction, but get a bit forgetful on other things. |  | | |
| Burn the witch. (n/t) on 10:09 - Jun 8 with 623 views | footers |
| Too late now..... on 10:07 - Jun 8 by Bloots |
.....you're going to be forever labelled as a racist covid denier on here now.
I just considered agreeing with Paz on something, but if I did I'd be ostracised forever and put in TWTD prison. |
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| Balls, I'm going to do it anyway.... on 10:10 - Jun 8 with 612 views | Bloots |
| Burn the witch. (n/t) on 10:09 - Jun 8 by footers |
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....to hell with the consequences man. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:10 - Jun 8 with 607 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:04 - Jun 8 by hype313 |
My Neighbour who works at Ipswich Hospital told me yesterday that they haven't had a single Covid patient for 5 weeks. |
It's almost like there are hotspots around the country and we aren't all affected the same |  | | |
| That's certainly been his view throughout the pandemic, yeah. on 10:11 - Jun 8 with 606 views | footers |
| Balls, I'm going to do it anyway.... on 10:10 - Jun 8 by Bloots |
....to hell with the consequences man. |
Only ~130k deaths, innit. | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:11 - Jun 8 with 596 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 by hype313 |
The India Variant was first detected in the UK in April. We've had significant reopening as part of the Road Map since then. But the number of deaths and hospitalisations is continuing to fall. I genuinely don't understand what the current panic is. |
Hospitalisations are going up, not down. | | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:13 - Jun 8 with 583 views | Ely_Blue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:07 - Jun 8 by mikeybloo88 |
Times reports that out of 126 people in hospital, 3 have been jabbed twice, 20 or so jabbed once, and the rest no jab. Looks like the vaccines do their job to me...yet to be seen how many and which of these folk will actually die, but odds are not many if any who have been jabbed. |
Absolutely and I bet those jabbed twice in hospital had only recently got their 2nd jab, that is my point |  |
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| I broadly agree..... on 10:13 - Jun 8 with 589 views | Bloots |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:39 - Jun 8 by 26_Paz |
Just my view but I’d do a kind of ‘June 21st Lite’ keep the real high risk stuff like nightclubs closed for a bit longer and maybe relax other stuff rather than completely delay it. Things like outdoor sports stadiums … allow a higher % of capacity in. Rule of 6 indoors, maybe make rule of 12 for a few weeks.
Given still relatively low numbers I think we can take foot off a bit but recognise going whole way may be a bit far in view of Indian variant. |
....there are plainly some situations that are more "dangerous" than others.
There is room for some relaxation, particularly around outdoor events whilst keeping some limitations around the obvious indoor "hotspots". | |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:13 - Jun 8 with 579 views | mikeybloo88 |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:48 - Jun 8 by Herbivore |
15 months in and a lot of people have learnt nothing about the pandemic it seems. |
I've learned that vaccines appear to work and the environment in which the virus now exists bears little relation to last year... | | | |
| OPEN BENIDORM!!! (n/t) on 10:13 - Jun 8 with 575 views | Bloots |
| That's certainly been his view throughout the pandemic, yeah. on 10:11 - Jun 8 by footers |
Only ~130k deaths, innit. |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:14 - Jun 8 with 568 views | tonybied |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 by hype313 |
Double dose stats.
80+ 93%
75-79 97%
70-74 95.5%
65-69 93%
55-59 81%
50-54 71%
I'd argue that the most vulnerable have, certainly the ones that would cause the NHS problems. |
You also have to remember you have to take into account that it still takes another 3-4 weeks after the injection that the patients immunity is fully primed. |  | | |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:15 - Jun 8 with 555 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 09:32 - Jun 8 by clive_baker |
I would be interested to see the evolution of those hospitalisations vs. cases, and also who is being hospitalised. There doesn't appear much info on that, although I heard a politician say 'very few double dosed are in hospital'. Would be interesting to see the data. |
Some data yesterday:
Of 100 cases in a hospital over the weekend, 3 were double dosed.
[Post edited 8 Jun 2021 10:18]
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:16 - Jun 8 with 535 views | ElderGrizzly |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 by hype313 |
Double dose stats.
80+ 93%
75-79 97%
70-74 95.5%
65-69 93%
55-59 81%
50-54 71%
I'd argue that the most vulnerable have, certainly the ones that would cause the NHS problems. |
It's not balanced across ethnic groups, which is the problem where we are seeing the hotspots.
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:17 - Jun 8 with 531 views | StokieBlue |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:02 - Jun 8 by PrideOfTheEast |
That's right re the data. If we delay two weeks and see the R number is 1.5 or whatever - what happens then? The most vulnerable in this country will be vaccinated or would have had the opportunity to be vaccinated. |
Then we delay moving to being fully open and either keep where we are or even roll back one step. It's going to be much better in the long run to not open up everything and avoid a full-on lockdown later rather than wait a couple of weeks, especially given people can still meet family and friends at the moment.
I think "most vulnerable" is a bit of a red herring. There are vulnerable people across all age ranges and other factors such as weight can affect how younger people get C19. There will also be a number of "younger" people with undiagnosed conditions which will make them vulnerable.
Fully appreciate it's all a matter of risk appetite but for the sake of a few weeks I just don't think it's worth rushing. We already know that the protection from AZ for the Delta variant could be as low as 68% so if we open up with an R of 1.5 we know lots of vaccinated people are going to get C19, what we don't know are the implications for long covid and hospitalisations.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:18 - Jun 8 with 522 views | SaigonTractor |
If we're basically unlocked anyway what's the harm in delaying it another 2 weeks?
Obviously Boris is inept and should have never let it get to this point in the first place, but we just can't risk going back into a harsh lockdown further down the line. |  | | |
| Or they may be in hospital.... on 10:19 - Jun 8 with 513 views | Bloots |
| End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 10:13 - Jun 8 by Ely_Blue |
Absolutely and I bet those jabbed twice in hospital had only recently got their 2nd jab, that is my point |
....with a different underlying condition. | |
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