| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" 09:22 - Jul 9 with 7848 views | StokieBlue |
In the interest of balance and to counter some of the more cherry-picked claims on here over the last few days, here is an open letter in the Lancet, published yesterday by scientists from across a number of organisations advising the government.
"Mass Infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young"
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fullt
Some bits for those that don't want to read it:
"We believe this decision is dangerous and premature."
"We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021."
"The link between infection and death might have been weakened, but it has not been broken, and infection can still cause substantial morbidity in both acute and long-term illness."
"First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. Official UK Government data show that as of July 4, 2021, 51% of the total UK population have been fully vaccinated and 68% have been partially vaccinated. Even assuming that approximately 20% of unvaccinated people are protected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, this still leaves more than 17 million people with no protection against COVID-19. Given this, and the high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, exponential growth will probably continue until millions more people are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with long-term illness and disability.4 This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."
"Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally."
"Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care."
"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."
A number of people have said that in general scientists are behind the opening and it's simply not true. The WHO have said it's unprecedented to be opening up in this way with cases in a steep rise and that no other country in the world has reduced restrictions in this scenario.
They also feel that proceeding as we are will make it more likely to have lockdowns and restrictions in the Autumn (and by extension Winter).
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:30 - Jul 9 with 2325 views | chicoazul |
We’re going to find out who’s right soon enough. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:43 - Jul 9 with 2275 views | giant_stow |
The more I think about this, the more I can't believe they're going through with it.
But then the young aren't usually in charge, so no surprise they get shat on. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:54 - Jul 9 with 2234 views | hype313 |
Been announced this morning that both Pfizer and AZ are only 10% effective against the delta variant after one dose (94% after 2) which is why we are seeing so many cases.
Don't understand why we don't hang fire until the majority have been double jabbed. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:55 - Jul 9 with 2222 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:54 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Been announced this morning that both Pfizer and AZ are only 10% effective against the delta variant after one dose (94% after 2) which is why we are seeing so many cases.
Don't understand why we don't hang fire until the majority have been double jabbed. |
Indeed and that is exactly what the open letter is advocating.
In my area it's only about 35% double vaccinated.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:58 - Jul 9 with 2165 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:43 - Jul 9 by giant_stow |
The more I think about this, the more I can't believe they're going through with it.
But then the young aren't usually in charge, so no surprise they get shat on. |
I don’t have any stats on this but I would wager ‘the young’ are heavily in favour of opening up. Allowing them to live their lives again does not mean they are being ‘shat’ on. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:59 - Jul 9 with 2193 views | hype313 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:58 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
I don’t have any stats on this but I would wager ‘the young’ are heavily in favour of opening up. Allowing them to live their lives again does not mean they are being ‘shat’ on. |
Don't think anyone wants to lockdown for any longer than necessary, but considering it's the young that are going to be hit hardest then it makes sense to get as many double jabbed before we open the floodgates, it might only be an additional 4 weeks, but surely worth it in the long term? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:03 - Jul 9 with 2146 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:59 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Don't think anyone wants to lockdown for any longer than necessary, but considering it's the young that are going to be hit hardest then it makes sense to get as many double jabbed before we open the floodgates, it might only be an additional 4 weeks, but surely worth it in the long term? |
It was ‘only an extra 4 weeks’ four weeks ago. You have to open at some point. It will never be completely risk free. The vast majority of these young people have nothing to fear from Covid that’s why hospital numbers are still relatively low despite soaring cases. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:11 - Jul 9 with 2138 views | hype313 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:03 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
It was ‘only an extra 4 weeks’ four weeks ago. You have to open at some point. It will never be completely risk free. The vast majority of these young people have nothing to fear from Covid that’s why hospital numbers are still relatively low despite soaring cases. |
Yes, we do have to open but surely it would be better to do it when it is safe to do so, and young people aren't being hospitilised like the elderly but there are other issues at play such as long covid, whilst not affecting the NHS right now, but could have huge ramifications long term.
I get you have had enough, I have too, but why not open when we know the majority are all safe? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:11 - Jul 9 with 2136 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:03 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
It was ‘only an extra 4 weeks’ four weeks ago. You have to open at some point. It will never be completely risk free. The vast majority of these young people have nothing to fear from Covid that’s why hospital numbers are still relatively low despite soaring cases. |
That's not an argument based on science and data though, arbitrarily choosing a date to open up because "you have to open up sometime" is ridiculous. There is actually a reason to delay if it means we get more vaccines in more arms although the vaccination rate is slowing in the young probably due to government messaging that we are "winning" the battle.
Modelling shows there could be 5000+ cases of long covid per day if we continue on this path and a lot of that will be in the young. There is also a worry amongst scientists that we will see an increase in the young in hospital as if the infections soar exponentially then the unknown vulnerable in the younger cohort are likely to get infected.
From the letter, scientists are expecting a lockdown or restrictions in the Autumn if we go down this path and I am sure you will be criticising those if they happen whilst supporting the opening up now.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:18 - Jul 9 with 2075 views | homer_123 |
But Freedom Day!!!!!!! |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:22 - Jul 9 with 2011 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:11 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Yes, we do have to open but surely it would be better to do it when it is safe to do so, and young people aren't being hospitilised like the elderly but there are other issues at play such as long covid, whilst not affecting the NHS right now, but could have huge ramifications long term.
I get you have had enough, I have too, but why not open when we know the majority are all safe? |
The absolute overwhelming majority are safe now. All of those deemed vulnerable to this virus are now double jabbed. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:25 - Jul 9 with 2029 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
I've only read the final short paragraph of your post, but I will be shocked if we are plunged back into lockdown in the autumn or winter as a result of the decision.
Surely the government would not go against the science and open up, if it means lives are upheaved/put on hold/restricted again in a few months?
Surely they would not risk the UK being put back/remaining firmly for more months on most other countries' red lists/barred lists, so that none of us are able to travel and maybe enjoy a few days away?
No way will they make a short term decision which results in our enjoyment and freedom in life being affected for longer unessecarily. Otherwise where will they ever stop with the bad decisions and consequent bullsh1ttery?
I trust them completely to make the right decision and minimise the collective future disruption to our daily lives.
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:26 - Jul 9 with 2022 views | Steve_M |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:54 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Been announced this morning that both Pfizer and AZ are only 10% effective against the delta variant after one dose (94% after 2) which is why we are seeing so many cases.
Don't understand why we don't hang fire until the majority have been double jabbed. |
A bit more here:
Yes, at some point we do have to get on with living with the virus but it would be far more sensible to wait until all adults have had the opportunity to get two doses of the vaccine plus the three weeks to build up immunity. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:31 - Jul 9 with 1984 views | chicoazul |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:26 - Jul 9 by Steve_M |
A bit more here:
Yes, at some point we do have to get on with living with the virus but it would be far more sensible to wait until all adults have had the opportunity to get two doses of the vaccine plus the three weeks to build up immunity. |
Some people just won’t get jabbed though. You think the 65% of adults OP refers to in his patch are suddenly going to turn around and get it, because the white devils on TV are telling them to? Just won’t happen. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:33 - Jul 9 with 1972 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:31 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
Some people just won’t get jabbed though. You think the 65% of adults OP refers to in his patch are suddenly going to turn around and get it, because the white devils on TV are telling them to? Just won’t happen. |
Point of order that Stokie said double vaccinated. Some spring chickens like me are waiting patiently in line for the second. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:35 - Jul 9 with 1959 views | homer_123 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:31 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
Some people just won’t get jabbed though. You think the 65% of adults OP refers to in his patch are suddenly going to turn around and get it, because the white devils on TV are telling them to? Just won’t happen. |
As I posted the other day:
Get in by homer_123 5 Jul 2021 18:21Over 15 million Over 50s in the UK....of which around 85% to 90% have been vaccinated.
Around 1.5m haven't been....and we have an variant that transmits more quickly as ever with the same level of symptoms etc.
Ask BlueBadger if he thinks the NHS can cope.
That's just Over 50s. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:35 - Jul 9 with 1951 views | chicoazul |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:33 - Jul 9 by footers |
Point of order that Stokie said double vaccinated. Some spring chickens like me are waiting patiently in line for the second. |
A fair point. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:39 - Jul 9 with 1938 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:30 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
We’re going to find out who’s right soon enough. |
We might do.
Of course it will help the Government if they reduce testing capacity and the sensitivity of the Test and Trace app just as we open. Now they wouldn't do that would they....
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:43 - Jul 9 with 1899 views | Basuco |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:03 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
It was ‘only an extra 4 weeks’ four weeks ago. You have to open at some point. It will never be completely risk free. The vast majority of these young people have nothing to fear from Covid that’s why hospital numbers are still relatively low despite soaring cases. |
My daughter is an occupational therapist and is seeing a growing list of young people suffering from long covid, unable to get out of the house, unable to live any form of normal life. One in their late 20's with 2 children is unable to hold a conversation due to impaired cognition, unable to get off the sofa due to no energy. You are very wrong to say the young have nothing to fear from covid, they may not face such a high death rate as older people, but do face long term mental and physical disability from it. Early findings are suggesting as many as 30% of those who have had covid are suffering from some form of long covid, over the long term not short term like a bad flu. |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:44 - Jul 9 with 1888 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:43 - Jul 9 by Basuco |
My daughter is an occupational therapist and is seeing a growing list of young people suffering from long covid, unable to get out of the house, unable to live any form of normal life. One in their late 20's with 2 children is unable to hold a conversation due to impaired cognition, unable to get off the sofa due to no energy. You are very wrong to say the young have nothing to fear from covid, they may not face such a high death rate as older people, but do face long term mental and physical disability from it. Early findings are suggesting as many as 30% of those who have had covid are suffering from some form of long covid, over the long term not short term like a bad flu. |
Paz has a position and is sticking to it regardless of the data or the latest research.
Very much like Boris actually, now isn't that a surprise.
SB [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 10:45]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:45 - Jul 9 with 1881 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:35 - Jul 9 by homer_123 |
As I posted the other day:
Get in by homer_123 5 Jul 2021 18:21Over 15 million Over 50s in the UK....of which around 85% to 90% have been vaccinated.
Around 1.5m haven't been....and we have an variant that transmits more quickly as ever with the same level of symptoms etc.
Ask BlueBadger if he thinks the NHS can cope.
That's just Over 50s. |
+ the 500,000 individuals in the UK with compromised immune systems -> sub-optimal responses to even 2 x vaccines. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:50 - Jul 9 with 1847 views | Ryorry |
"Moral emptiness & epidemioogical stupidity' - Dr Mike Ryan, WHO.
[Post edited 9 Jul 2021 11:08]
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:57 - Jul 9 with 1820 views | NewcyBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:11 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Yes, we do have to open but surely it would be better to do it when it is safe to do so, and young people aren't being hospitilised like the elderly but there are other issues at play such as long covid, whilst not affecting the NHS right now, but could have huge ramifications long term.
I get you have had enough, I have too, but why not open when we know the majority are all safe? |
You’re arguing with someone with fervent belief in Brexit, despite supposedly having a Romanian wife. He doesn’t seem to comprehend or care when policy will hurt him, as long as it hurts brown people. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:57 - Jul 9 with 1812 views | TractorWood |
It's a massive gamble from BoJo et al. I see both sides, huge amounts are vaccinated and economy does need opening up. However, dropping masks seems unnecessary given how little bother they are. We are effectively the first large scale experiment of mostly vaccinated population versus hugely infectious virus.
Have to say London seems to be fending for itself compared to East Anglia. Most I see in London is lip service to the rules whereas Cambridge and rural Suffolk are still distancing, avoiding restaurants and contact. |  |
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