| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" 09:22 - Jul 9 with 9989 views | StokieBlue |
In the interest of balance and to counter some of the more cherry-picked claims on here over the last few days, here is an open letter in the Lancet, published yesterday by scientists from across a number of organisations advising the government.
"Mass Infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young"
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fullt
Some bits for those that don't want to read it:
"We believe this decision is dangerous and premature."
"We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021."
"The link between infection and death might have been weakened, but it has not been broken, and infection can still cause substantial morbidity in both acute and long-term illness."
"First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. Official UK Government data show that as of July 4, 2021, 51% of the total UK population have been fully vaccinated and 68% have been partially vaccinated. Even assuming that approximately 20% of unvaccinated people are protected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, this still leaves more than 17 million people with no protection against COVID-19. Given this, and the high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, exponential growth will probably continue until millions more people are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with long-term illness and disability.4 This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."
"Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally."
"Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care."
"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."
A number of people have said that in general scientists are behind the opening and it's simply not true. The WHO have said it's unprecedented to be opening up in this way with cases in a steep rise and that no other country in the world has reduced restrictions in this scenario.
They also feel that proceeding as we are will make it more likely to have lockdowns and restrictions in the Autumn (and by extension Winter).
SB |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:32 - Jul 9 with 1741 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:59 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
Johnson may be popular in some quarters at the mo, but in 50 years' time (if human beings are still around then) he'll be one of the most reviled people in UK history. I'm 100% certain of that. |
telling stupid people what they want to hear has always generated popularity.....................among the stupid
and recent events have shown there are far more out there than many had believed |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:33 - Jul 9 with 1740 views | JakeITFC |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:08 - Jul 9 by homer_123 |
It no longer comes as a surprise that people cannot compute basic numbers.
The Gov continue to pound out the % of people vaccinated on a national basis but people forget the 'actual' physical numbers involved. 5% or 10% of a cohort of, say, 15 million....is a LOT of people in terms of numbers but hey, it's clear the Gov no longer gives a sh*t.
Given the massive uptick in holiday bookings - it would appear many people don't either. |
A small detail but something I've noticed, is that when the government speak about vaccines they often talk about the offered-to numbers/percentages are opposed to the uptake.
Possible that they are saying to the unvaccinated people that the offer of protection is there, but we can't lockdown the country for you anymore. |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:33 - Jul 9 with 1737 views | NewcyBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:34 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
Come on mate, that’s out of order and you know it.
And she’s my girlfriend not my wife. |
It’s accurate.
You’re consistently on the side of racists, homophobes, and selfish feckers who throughout the pandemic just wanted to have a beer in a pub.
It’s banter when you want it to be. Take your concerns and feck off. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:37 - Jul 9 with 1719 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:28 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
I think they don't know what to do and have just given up. |
I also think that they are just bored with it all now.
I suppose 'what to do' would be to listen to the science, but maybe that's too obvious.
Still, the biggest risk is a load of vaccine-resistant mutations develop, so it's not too bad. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:38 - Jul 9 with 1712 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:34 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
There seems to be something in this divine intervention though, as I've also heard that lots of Abbots can help.
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Haven't had an Abbot in a while actually... But it is Friday lunchtime so... |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:45 - Jul 9 with 1686 views | chicoazul |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:17 - Jul 9 by HARRY10 |
everybody would like to 'live their lives again'
most likely the 150,000 who never will because of the ignorant sht you spout |
So the latest is Paz is a mass murderer. You’re a mad old tw@ Hazza, don’t ever change! |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:51 - Jul 9 with 1656 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:45 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
So the latest is Paz is a mass murderer. You’re a mad old tw@ Hazza, don’t ever change! |
rightie gets angry, and posts another lie
there's a surprise.............said no one | | | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:04 - Jul 9 with 1625 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:51 - Jul 9 by HARRY10 |
rightie gets angry, and posts another lie
there's a surprise.............said no one |
I don’t think it’s a lie mate. I’m not a mass murderer. Honest. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:05 - Jul 9 with 1617 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:33 - Jul 9 by NewcyBlue |
It’s accurate.
You’re consistently on the side of racists, homophobes, and selfish feckers who throughout the pandemic just wanted to have a beer in a pub.
It’s banter when you want it to be. Take your concerns and feck off. |
Rude, uncalled for and abusive. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:10 - Jul 9 with 1607 views | StochesStotasBlewe |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:34 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
There seems to be something in this divine intervention though, as I've also heard that lots of Abbots can help.
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From past experience, lots of Abbots generally gave me sh1ts for a week and offered no protection from Covid. |  |
| We have no village green, or a shop.
It's very, very quiet.
I can walk to the pub. |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:16 - Jul 9 with 1601 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:38 - Jul 9 by footers |
Haven't had an Abbot in a while actually... But it is Friday lunchtime so... |
Probably best to leave it another while I would think.
Years ago I was stuck in a bar in Cusco because the Semana Santa parades meant there were about 100,000 people in the streets and it was impossible to leave the bar due to the crush outside. I was happily enjoying a few cusquenas, then when going to get another beer the barman asked if I wanted to try something else.
It turned out to be Abbot Ale - couldn't even get away from the stuff 3400m up in the Andes.
SB | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:18 - Jul 9 with 1591 views | hype313 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:10 - Jul 9 by StochesStotasBlewe |
From past experience, lots of Abbots generally gave me sh1ts for a week and offered no protection from Covid. |
That's generally the rule for all Greene King beers. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:20 - Jul 9 with 1584 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:16 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
Probably best to leave it another while I would think.
Years ago I was stuck in a bar in Cusco because the Semana Santa parades meant there were about 100,000 people in the streets and it was impossible to leave the bar due to the crush outside. I was happily enjoying a few cusquenas, then when going to get another beer the barman asked if I wanted to try something else.
It turned out to be Abbot Ale - couldn't even get away from the stuff 3400m up in the Andes.
SB |
Ha! What a weird place for them to have Abbot!
Haven't had a pint of that in years as it goes. But here's another one: what happened to Bitburger? You used to see that about a fair bit but seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:24 - Jul 9 with 1570 views | JakeITFC |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:20 - Jul 9 by footers |
Ha! What a weird place for them to have Abbot!
Haven't had a pint of that in years as it goes. But here's another one: what happened to Bitburger? You used to see that about a fair bit but seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth. |
Bitburger is now sold in cans on Greater Anglia services for some reason. | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:26 - Jul 9 with 1563 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:04 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
I don’t think it’s a lie mate. I’m not a mass murderer. Honest. |
I never claimed you were
you righties need to stop making up stuff | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:26 - Jul 9 with 1562 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:20 - Jul 9 by footers |
Ha! What a weird place for them to have Abbot!
Haven't had a pint of that in years as it goes. But here's another one: what happened to Bitburger? You used to see that about a fair bit but seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth. |
I think you can still get it from Adnams with their deliveries but I think it mainly used to be Bitburger Drive which has been surpassed by numerous other local alcohol alternatives.
SB | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:29 - Jul 9 with 1554 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:24 - Jul 9 by JakeITFC |
Bitburger is now sold in cans on Greater Anglia services for some reason. |
Ah, so following in their fine tradition of being 10 years behind the rest of the world. Presumably they still serve Blue Nun in first class. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:33 - Jul 9 with 1547 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:28 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
I think they don't know what to do and have just given up. |
Basically this.
They've put money over health now, even though the NHS is already overwhelmed and it is only the summer.
It will end in another tragedy sadly |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:35 - Jul 9 with 1543 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:29 - Jul 9 by footers |
Ah, so following in their fine tradition of being 10 years behind the rest of the world. Presumably they still serve Blue Nun in first class. |
SB | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:47 - Jul 9 with 1514 views | Tangledupin_Blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:30 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
We’re going to find out who’s right soon enough. |
We may well find out. However, quite a number are likely to be 'unavailable for comment'. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:51 - Jul 9 with 1496 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:28 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
I think they don't know what to do and have just given up. |
With all the excellent scientific data, analysis & advice from epidemiologists, WHO, the UN etc. being offered, you'd have to be pretty stupid not to know what to do ... oh, hang on ... |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:59 - Jul 9 with 1488 views | StokieBlue |
The R is now predicted to be between 1.2 and 1.5 for England. That equates to a 3% to 7% increase in cases per day. Extrapolating forward a best case scenario of a flat R means it will be >100,000 cases per day in 25 days. It'll be quicker than that though as the R will increase and attempt to tend towards the natural R for the delta variant.
SB [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 13:59]
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:06 - Jul 9 with 1464 views | chicoazul |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:51 - Jul 9 by HARRY10 |
rightie gets angry, and posts another lie
there's a surprise.............said no one |
Hahahaha you really are demented, I love it. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:07 - Jul 9 with 1464 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:59 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
The R is now predicted to be between 1.2 and 1.5 for England. That equates to a 3% to 7% increase in cases per day. Extrapolating forward a best case scenario of a flat R means it will be >100,000 cases per day in 25 days. It'll be quicker than that though as the R will increase and attempt to tend towards the natural R for the delta variant.
SB [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 13:59]
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The problem with the 'r' is that it is just guess work at best
The critical number will be the increase * in hospital admissions due to covid patients.
Each extra bed occupied equates to a non covid patient not being treated, and resources being used that may well have not been needed.
* insert spike, uptick etc depending on how hip you want to sound | | | |
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