| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" 09:22 - Jul 9 with 9968 views | StokieBlue |
In the interest of balance and to counter some of the more cherry-picked claims on here over the last few days, here is an open letter in the Lancet, published yesterday by scientists from across a number of organisations advising the government.
"Mass Infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young"
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fullt
Some bits for those that don't want to read it:
"We believe this decision is dangerous and premature."
"We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021."
"The link between infection and death might have been weakened, but it has not been broken, and infection can still cause substantial morbidity in both acute and long-term illness."
"First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. Official UK Government data show that as of July 4, 2021, 51% of the total UK population have been fully vaccinated and 68% have been partially vaccinated. Even assuming that approximately 20% of unvaccinated people are protected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, this still leaves more than 17 million people with no protection against COVID-19. Given this, and the high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, exponential growth will probably continue until millions more people are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with long-term illness and disability.4 This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."
"Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally."
"Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care."
"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."
A number of people have said that in general scientists are behind the opening and it's simply not true. The WHO have said it's unprecedented to be opening up in this way with cases in a steep rise and that no other country in the world has reduced restrictions in this scenario.
They also feel that proceeding as we are will make it more likely to have lockdowns and restrictions in the Autumn (and by extension Winter).
SB |  | | |  |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:09 - Jul 9 with 947 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:07 - Jul 9 by HARRY10 |
The problem with the 'r' is that it is just guess work at best
The critical number will be the increase * in hospital admissions due to covid patients.
Each extra bed occupied equates to a non covid patient not being treated, and resources being used that may well have not been needed.
* insert spike, uptick etc depending on how hip you want to sound |
Well R is a bit more than guesswork, it's know for the virus if left totally unrestricted and can be inferred for the current measures by looking at the percentage increases in cases.
In the end an increase in R means more infections which will mean more hospital admissions even if the absolute percentages of those ending up in hospital is reduced due to vaccinations.
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:26 - Jul 9 with 911 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:38 - Jul 9 by footers |
Haven't had an Abbot in a while actually... But it is Friday lunchtime so... |
Me neither. I did throw up 5 pints of the stuff onto the new carpets of the White Horse Hotel when I was a mere whippersnapper. That was my first experience of drinking - not the best. I don't think they were too impressed either. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:26 - Jul 9 with 911 views | eireblue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:05 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
Rude, uncalled for and abusive. |
Let me step in and help you out here Paz Man.
See Paz is a self proclaimed free thinker, who isn’t influenced by external factors, like
Facts.
Science.
Definitions of Racism.
We must always remember this when considering a Paz utterance. |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:28 - Jul 9 with 901 views | eireblue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:30 - Jul 9 by chicoazul |
We’re going to find out who’s right soon enough. |
That is, sadly, a rather irrelevant point. | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:35 - Jul 9 with 885 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:09 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
Well R is a bit more than guesswork, it's know for the virus if left totally unrestricted and can be inferred for the current measures by looking at the percentage increases in cases.
In the end an increase in R means more infections which will mean more hospital admissions even if the absolute percentages of those ending up in hospital is reduced due to vaccinations.
SB |
r number is only an estimation based on limited information - that being the number of cases known
which is dependent on limited testing, and reporting ie guesswork
the implications of increased covid hospital admissions, which are 'a known' and so should be the measure used, not vague guesswork |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:42 - Jul 9 with 862 views | jeera |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:26 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
Me neither. I did throw up 5 pints of the stuff onto the new carpets of the White Horse Hotel when I was a mere whippersnapper. That was my first experience of drinking - not the best. I don't think they were too impressed either. |
The White Horse, along from Debenhams little further up the street?
For a long time that was my starting point on a Friday night and occasionally the finishing point too.
Also a nice little venue if you wanted a quieter drink with a lass on a weekday. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:45 - Jul 9 with 855 views | Swansea_Blue |
"A few patients we are caring for still deny Covid exists, even as we strap oxygen masks to their faces."
WTAF? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:49 - Jul 9 with 840 views | hype313 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:45 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
"A few patients we are caring for still deny Covid exists, even as we strap oxygen masks to their faces."
WTAF? |
Yeah, they saw a YouTube video saying it was nonsense and still carried that thought process with them right up until a Ventilator was hooked up. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:51 - Jul 9 with 834 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:49 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
Yeah, they saw a YouTube video saying it was nonsense and still carried that thought process with them right up until a Ventilator was hooked up. |
I'll add it to the increasingly long list of things I will never understand. At what point did we go completely nuts as a country? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:10 - Jul 9 with 799 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:51 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
I'll add it to the increasingly long list of things I will never understand. At what point did we go completely nuts as a country? |
1979. Abandon all attempts at collectivism, all in it for our own narrow self-interest now, buh. And yes, I will gouge your eyes out if it means getting ahead.
The public gets what the public wants. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:13 - Jul 9 with 793 views | bluelagos |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:59 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
The R is now predicted to be between 1.2 and 1.5 for England. That equates to a 3% to 7% increase in cases per day. Extrapolating forward a best case scenario of a flat R means it will be >100,000 cases per day in 25 days. It'll be quicker than that though as the R will increase and attempt to tend towards the natural R for the delta variant.
SB [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 13:59]
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The bit I don't grasp is they are saying that 100k cases a day are likely by end August (or sooner) - why would it peak there?
If the policy is to "let it rip" I can't see why the cases wouldn't continue to grow until the point of herd immunity is reached, which could be a lot larger than 100k cases a day I'd have thought. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:14 - Jul 9 with 790 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 14:45 - Jul 9 by Swansea_Blue |
"A few patients we are caring for still deny Covid exists, even as we strap oxygen masks to their faces."
WTAF? |
I know, hard to know what to really say about that isn't it.
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:15 - Jul 9 with 783 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:10 - Jul 9 by footers |
1979. Abandon all attempts at collectivism, all in it for our own narrow self-interest now, buh. And yes, I will gouge your eyes out if it means getting ahead.
The public gets what the public wants. |
Speaks volumes that I'd swap Johnson for Thatcher in a heartbeat (probably arrhythmic, considering how much I loathed the woman) right now. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:19 - Jul 9 with 775 views | NewcyBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 13:05 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
Rude, uncalled for and abusive. |
No. Rude, uncalled for, and abusive is the definition of the very things you’ve sought to defend on numerous occasions. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:19 - Jul 9 with 773 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:13 - Jul 9 by bluelagos |
The bit I don't grasp is they are saying that 100k cases a day are likely by end August (or sooner) - why would it peak there?
If the policy is to "let it rip" I can't see why the cases wouldn't continue to grow until the point of herd immunity is reached, which could be a lot larger than 100k cases a day I'd have thought. |
Survival of the fittest ... Would sort out the govt's problems re pensions, rising no. of elderly needing care etc. tho  | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:20 - Jul 9 with 772 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:13 - Jul 9 by bluelagos |
The bit I don't grasp is they are saying that 100k cases a day are likely by end August (or sooner) - why would it peak there?
If the policy is to "let it rip" I can't see why the cases wouldn't continue to grow until the point of herd immunity is reached, which could be a lot larger than 100k cases a day I'd have thought. |
Well given the numbers today and the predicted R it'll be 100k cases a day far before the end of August, especially with the restriction changes.
Have any scientists actually said it will peak? It should keep growing exponentially until it infects everyone who doesn't have some form of immunity. There is no reason given the current number of vaccinated people (given vaccination doesn't stop all infection) that we won't see 200k+ numbers per day (and in fact the modelling from Imperial has already predicted this to be the case).
It's madness as many scientists and the WHO are pointing out.
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:27 - Jul 9 with 742 views | jaykay |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:58 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
I don’t have any stats on this but I would wager ‘the young’ are heavily in favour of opening up. Allowing them to live their lives again does not mean they are being ‘shat’ on. |
i expect the young from 1939 to 1945 wanted to surrender so they could start living their lives again. |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:30 - Jul 9 with 734 views | bluelagos |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:20 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
Well given the numbers today and the predicted R it'll be 100k cases a day far before the end of August, especially with the restriction changes.
Have any scientists actually said it will peak? It should keep growing exponentially until it infects everyone who doesn't have some form of immunity. There is no reason given the current number of vaccinated people (given vaccination doesn't stop all infection) that we won't see 200k+ numbers per day (and in fact the modelling from Imperial has already predicted this to be the case).
It's madness as many scientists and the WHO are pointing out.
SB |
Got any links to the latest modelling papers? I know they said Monday for release but wondering if they've done any recently? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:35 - Jul 9 with 722 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:30 - Jul 9 by bluelagos |
Got any links to the latest modelling papers? I know they said Monday for release but wondering if they've done any recently? |
I don't have the specific new papers but Ferguson has said it could be 200,000 cases per day in August (and 100,000 in July) but for Javid keeps saying 100,000 by the end of August which is pretty disingenuous.
"Health secretary Sajid Javid warned that infections could rise to more than 100,000 cases a day in August after the UK relaxes COVID restrictions.
However Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College London who sits on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), says daily coronavirus numbers could be as high as 200,000."
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:36 - Jul 9 with 716 views | chrismakin |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:30 - Jul 9 by bluelagos |
Got any links to the latest modelling papers? I know they said Monday for release but wondering if they've done any recently? |
This is quite good, last updated 2nd july tho, so realistially, this is going to look a lot lot worse
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=tr [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 15:37]
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:44 - Jul 9 with 697 views | StokieBlue |
We are currently right on the red line (worst case projection). The cases fit very closely to yesterdays.
However I am not sure why there is a fall off, there shouldn't be with no restrictions, I would have thought it would flatten out.
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:44 - Jul 9 with 697 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:35 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
I don't have the specific new papers but Ferguson has said it could be 200,000 cases per day in August (and 100,000 in July) but for Javid keeps saying 100,000 by the end of August which is pretty disingenuous.
"Health secretary Sajid Javid warned that infections could rise to more than 100,000 cases a day in August after the UK relaxes COVID restrictions.
However Professor Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College London who sits on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), says daily coronavirus numbers could be as high as 200,000."
SB |
I'm imagining a very black comedy 'Spitting Image' sketch of a school lesson in exponential maths -
"Now children, if infection levels of coronavirus are 200,000 people daily in the UK, how long will it be before the entire UK population are either dead, have long covid, or immunity?" | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:48 - Jul 9 with 683 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:44 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
I'm imagining a very black comedy 'Spitting Image' sketch of a school lesson in exponential maths -
"Now children, if infection levels of coronavirus are 200,000 people daily in the UK, how long will it be before the entire UK population are either dead, have long covid, or immunity?" |
Even then the worry is that natural infections don't seem to be giving as reliable immunity as vaccinations.
SB | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:48 - Jul 9 with 680 views | chrismakin |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 15:44 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
We are currently right on the red line (worst case projection). The cases fit very closely to yesterdays.
However I am not sure why there is a fall off, there shouldn't be with no restrictions, I would have thought it would flatten out.
SB |
Probably at the time of these they didn't expect 0 safety measures in place, and then even more relaxation from 16th August. | |
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