| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" 09:22 - Jul 9 with 9991 views | StokieBlue |
In the interest of balance and to counter some of the more cherry-picked claims on here over the last few days, here is an open letter in the Lancet, published yesterday by scientists from across a number of organisations advising the government.
"Mass Infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young"
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fullt
Some bits for those that don't want to read it:
"We believe this decision is dangerous and premature."
"We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021."
"The link between infection and death might have been weakened, but it has not been broken, and infection can still cause substantial morbidity in both acute and long-term illness."
"First, unmitigated transmission will disproportionately affect unvaccinated children and young people who have already suffered greatly. Official UK Government data show that as of July 4, 2021, 51% of the total UK population have been fully vaccinated and 68% have been partially vaccinated. Even assuming that approximately 20% of unvaccinated people are protected by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, this still leaves more than 17 million people with no protection against COVID-19. Given this, and the high transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, exponential growth will probably continue until millions more people are infected, leaving hundreds of thousands of people with long-term illness and disability.4 This strategy risks creating a generation left with chronic health problems and disability, the personal and economic impacts of which might be felt for decades to come."
"Third, preliminary modelling data9 suggest the government's strategy provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants. This would place all at risk, including those already vaccinated, within the UK and globally."
"Fourth, this strategy will have a significant impact on health services and exhausted health-care staff who have not yet recovered from previous infection waves. The link between cases and hospital admissions has not been broken, and rising case numbers will inevitably lead to increased hospital admissions, applying further pressure at a time when millions of people are waiting for medical procedures and routine care."
"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."
A number of people have said that in general scientists are behind the opening and it's simply not true. The WHO have said it's unprecedented to be opening up in this way with cases in a steep rise and that no other country in the world has reduced restrictions in this scenario.
They also feel that proceeding as we are will make it more likely to have lockdowns and restrictions in the Autumn (and by extension Winter).
SB |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:00 - Jul 9 with 1781 views | Ely_Blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:11 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
That's not an argument based on science and data though, arbitrarily choosing a date to open up because "you have to open up sometime" is ridiculous. There is actually a reason to delay if it means we get more vaccines in more arms although the vaccination rate is slowing in the young probably due to government messaging that we are "winning" the battle.
Modelling shows there could be 5000+ cases of long covid per day if we continue on this path and a lot of that will be in the young. There is also a worry amongst scientists that we will see an increase in the young in hospital as if the infections soar exponentially then the unknown vulnerable in the younger cohort are likely to get infected.
From the letter, scientists are expecting a lockdown or restrictions in the Autumn if we go down this path and I am sure you will be criticising those if they happen whilst supporting the opening up now.
SB |
The bumbling blonde haired one promised us no more lockdowns |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:02 - Jul 9 with 1781 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:57 - Jul 9 by TractorWood |
It's a massive gamble from BoJo et al. I see both sides, huge amounts are vaccinated and economy does need opening up. However, dropping masks seems unnecessary given how little bother they are. We are effectively the first large scale experiment of mostly vaccinated population versus hugely infectious virus.
Have to say London seems to be fending for itself compared to East Anglia. Most I see in London is lip service to the rules whereas Cambridge and rural Suffolk are still distancing, avoiding restaurants and contact. |
A huge amount aren't vaccinated though, that is the government pushing that line when in reality it's not true.
In my area only 33% have had two vaccinations and one vaccination only seems to give extremely limited protection against the Delta variant (perhaps as low as 10%). That's not even mentioning the large numbers of long covid that will occur if the cases are really high (100,000+ doesn't sound unrealistic at the moment).
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:04 - Jul 9 with 1771 views | StokieBlue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:00 - Jul 9 by Ely_Blue |
The bumbling blonde haired one promised us no more lockdowns |
That's irrelevant.
His word is about as watertight as Liza's bucket.
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:08 - Jul 9 with 1763 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:39 - Jul 9 by ElderGrizzly |
We might do.
Of course it will help the Government if they reduce testing capacity and the sensitivity of the Test and Trace app just as we open. Now they wouldn't do that would they....
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EG, what is the government's angle here, seriously?
I'm not going 'tin hat mode' but I really can't see what they are trying to do. Do they really hope that things will go well and our 'remove all restrictions' approach is a huge success? It just feels to me that everything they do is deliberately counter intuitive and risks putting us one step further from back to normal. [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 11:10]
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:08 - Jul 9 with 1765 views | homer_123 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:02 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
A huge amount aren't vaccinated though, that is the government pushing that line when in reality it's not true.
In my area only 33% have had two vaccinations and one vaccination only seems to give extremely limited protection against the Delta variant (perhaps as low as 10%). That's not even mentioning the large numbers of long covid that will occur if the cases are really high (100,000+ doesn't sound unrealistic at the moment).
SB |
It no longer comes as a surprise that people cannot compute basic numbers.
The Gov continue to pound out the % of people vaccinated on a national basis but people forget the 'actual' physical numbers involved. 5% or 10% of a cohort of, say, 15 million....is a LOT of people in terms of numbers but hey, it's clear the Gov no longer gives a sh*t.
Given the massive uptick in holiday bookings - it would appear many people don't either. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:12 - Jul 9 with 1742 views | XYZ |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:03 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
It was ‘only an extra 4 weeks’ four weeks ago. You have to open at some point. It will never be completely risk free. The vast majority of these young people have nothing to fear from Covid that’s why hospital numbers are still relatively low despite soaring cases. |
You read the bit about another winter lockdown? |  | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:14 - Jul 9 with 1741 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:08 - Jul 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
EG, what is the government's angle here, seriously?
I'm not going 'tin hat mode' but I really can't see what they are trying to do. Do they really hope that things will go well and our 'remove all restrictions' approach is a huge success? It just feels to me that everything they do is deliberately counter intuitive and risks putting us one step further from back to normal. [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 11:10]
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I never used to be cynical, but this government has taught me to be.
Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if the NHS becoming overwhelmed were used as another lever to push the privatisation of medical services & further erosion of our NHS - to the financial advantage of our supposedly prime minister & his cronies such as JRM. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:21 - Jul 9 with 1720 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:12 - Jul 9 by XYZ |
You read the bit about another winter lockdown? |
You can't underestimate what going to Benidorm for a week can do for people's mental health. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:21 - Jul 9 with 1722 views | TractorWood |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:02 - Jul 9 by StokieBlue |
A huge amount aren't vaccinated though, that is the government pushing that line when in reality it's not true.
In my area only 33% have had two vaccinations and one vaccination only seems to give extremely limited protection against the Delta variant (perhaps as low as 10%). That's not even mentioning the large numbers of long covid that will occur if the cases are really high (100,000+ doesn't sound unrealistic at the moment).
SB |
Sure. There will clearly be really dangerous outbreaks, particularly in areas with low take up. You are correct that they are looking at a simplistic, hollistic view of a dangerous and uncompromising virus.
Long covid is a huge risk but so is having a dormant economy. No scenario in which we win anymore. But BoJos strategy is hasty. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:24 - Jul 9 with 1710 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:14 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
I never used to be cynical, but this government has taught me to be.
Sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if the NHS becoming overwhelmed were used as another lever to push the privatisation of medical services & further erosion of our NHS - to the financial advantage of our supposedly prime minister & his cronies such as JRM. |
A neat summary: it's all f****d. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:24 - Jul 9 with 1711 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:21 - Jul 9 by TractorWood |
Sure. There will clearly be really dangerous outbreaks, particularly in areas with low take up. You are correct that they are looking at a simplistic, hollistic view of a dangerous and uncompromising virus.
Long covid is a huge risk but so is having a dormant economy. No scenario in which we win anymore. But BoJos strategy is hasty. |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:30 - Jul 9 with 1696 views | andytown |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:24 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
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Only problem with nz/aus approach is how long are they going to cut themselves off from the rest of the world? As far as I understand, aus has now decided to get as many jabbed as possible and then open the borders. | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:30 - Jul 9 with 1691 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:24 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
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As it's clearly here to stay, you could argue that her policy will just cut New Zealand off from the rest of the world for a long, long time, and is thus not a very good one.
(I should add I haven't read the ins and outs of it, but I understand she doesn't want to risk letting any Covid into the country). | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:34 - Jul 9 with 1668 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:57 - Jul 9 by NewcyBlue |
You’re arguing with someone with fervent belief in Brexit, despite supposedly having a Romanian wife. He doesn’t seem to comprehend or care when policy will hurt him, as long as it hurts brown people. |
Come on mate, that’s out of order and you know it.
And she’s my girlfriend not my wife. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:39 - Jul 9 with 1652 views | factual_blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:43 - Jul 9 by giant_stow |
The more I think about this, the more I can't believe they're going through with it.
But then the young aren't usually in charge, so no surprise they get shat on. |
tory donors matter more than anybody else. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:48 - Jul 9 with 1641 views | Steve_M |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 10:39 - Jul 9 by ElderGrizzly |
We might do.
Of course it will help the Government if they reduce testing capacity and the sensitivity of the Test and Trace app just as we open. Now they wouldn't do that would they....
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The issue with the app is it takes no heed of location or vaccination status. I got a message to self isolate last week which, based on the date, can only have been at Lord's where I was both outside and nowhere near anyone else for very long.
I was very tempted to ignore it as that plus two jabs makes me low risk of infection. I did cancel my plans although I still did some exercise outside - Hampstead Heath at 6am is not busy.
We are at a stage where people are just likely to ignore it now so it might be sensible. What isn't sensible is the usual half-arsed briefing stuff to the media. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:55 - Jul 9 with 1623 views | hype313 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:48 - Jul 9 by Steve_M |
The issue with the app is it takes no heed of location or vaccination status. I got a message to self isolate last week which, based on the date, can only have been at Lord's where I was both outside and nowhere near anyone else for very long.
I was very tempted to ignore it as that plus two jabs makes me low risk of infection. I did cancel my plans although I still did some exercise outside - Hampstead Heath at 6am is not busy.
We are at a stage where people are just likely to ignore it now so it might be sensible. What isn't sensible is the usual half-arsed briefing stuff to the media. |
"Hampstead Heath at 6am is not busy."
Especially since George sadly passed. |  |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:58 - Jul 9 with 1611 views | footers |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:55 - Jul 9 by hype313 |
"Hampstead Heath at 6am is not busy."
Especially since George sadly passed. |
Top work. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:58 - Jul 9 with 1613 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
I particularly enjoyed reading the bit about the increased risk of vaccine resistance.
Still, trust the government. Johnson and Javid etc obviously know more than a bunch of scientists and WHO. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:59 - Jul 9 with 1600 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:24 - Jul 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
A neat summary: it's all f****d. |
Johnson may be popular in some quarters at the mo, but in 50 years' time (if human beings are still around then) he'll be one of the most reviled people in UK history. I'm 100% certain of that. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:04 - Jul 9 with 1578 views | Ryorry |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:30 - Jul 9 by andytown |
Only problem with nz/aus approach is how long are they going to cut themselves off from the rest of the world? As far as I understand, aus has now decided to get as many jabbed as possible and then open the borders. |
I'm no expert, but going by her previous superb record of handling difficult stuff, I imagine she'll wait till they have as much vacc protection as they think they can get, then open up in a cautious, one-by-one, screened manner which would allow them to deal in a safe way with anything incoming.
The pole opposite of our UK govt., in effect. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:04 - Jul 9 with 1575 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:59 - Jul 9 by Ryorry |
Johnson may be popular in some quarters at the mo, but in 50 years' time (if human beings are still around then) he'll be one of the most reviled people in UK history. I'm 100% certain of that. |
Depends whether or not we're in a lockdown at that point. | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:17 - Jul 9 with 1539 views | HARRY10 |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 09:58 - Jul 9 by 26_Paz |
I don’t have any stats on this but I would wager ‘the young’ are heavily in favour of opening up. Allowing them to live their lives again does not mean they are being ‘shat’ on. |
everybody would like to 'live their lives again'
most likely the 150,000 who never will because of the ignorant sht you spout | | | |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:24 - Jul 9 with 1502 views | 26_Paz |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:17 - Jul 9 by HARRY10 |
everybody would like to 'live their lives again'
most likely the 150,000 who never will because of the ignorant sht you spout |
What? | |
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| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 12:28 - Jul 9 with 1496 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Open letter in the Lancet: "Mass infection is not an option" on 11:08 - Jul 9 by ThisIsMyUsername |
EG, what is the government's angle here, seriously?
I'm not going 'tin hat mode' but I really can't see what they are trying to do. Do they really hope that things will go well and our 'remove all restrictions' approach is a huge success? It just feels to me that everything they do is deliberately counter intuitive and risks putting us one step further from back to normal. [Post edited 9 Jul 2021 11:10]
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I think they don't know what to do and have just given up. |  |
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