| 106000 cases 20:28 - Dec 22 with 10172 views | chrismakin |
And home now watching spurs infront of what 55000, people.
It's a bit, erm fked up isn't it.
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| 106000 cases on 09:28 - Dec 23 with 2255 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| 106000 cases on 23:50 - Dec 22 by jeera |
I was an astronaut back in the 50s.
I wasn't really.
It's funny how you keep using the word sanctimonious as though it's new and exciting to you.
I once had a friend who discovered the word 'decadent'.
We put up with it for several months despite him using it out of context several times. He seemed to like it, so you know, what harm could it do?
He looked and sounded a bit of a tw@t and never once noticed the joke was very often on him.
Still, so long as he was happy and felt important. |
"Decadent" = someone with only 10 teeth... |  |
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| 106000 cases on 09:30 - Dec 23 with 2246 views | Churchman |
| 106000 cases on 08:58 - Dec 23 by mikeybloo88 |
I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but if London's hospitalisations have gone up fom roughly 1300 to 1900 and nationally we've gone up from about 7800 to 8050, doesn't that mean hospitalisation cases dropping outside of London, which accounts now for nearly 25% of all hospitalisations. Perhaps GB's point about measures for London specifically is a starting point. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 9:39]
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Perhaps London is a starting point, but the last time they tried ‘regionalising’ it didn’t work. People move around. I am ill informed on all this but the trends do not look good to me. If we get to a stage where the government won’t act until the trolleys are in the car park and are making them look bad, that’s their self interest over the needs of the people.
The economy is of course a priority. No income, no taxes. But allowing this to overwhelm health provision and forcing severe restrictions seems the poorest of all choices to me. Not only that, the last two weeks through to New Year was the perfect time to provide a fire break. Work in general falls off then anyway as does schooling.
Surely with all that’s happened in the last two years they’ve learnt more about this than Hancock’s failure to shut the curtains or how far away Barnard Castle is. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 9:32]
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| 106000 cases on 09:59 - Dec 23 with 2181 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 106000 cases on 09:30 - Dec 23 by Churchman |
Perhaps London is a starting point, but the last time they tried ‘regionalising’ it didn’t work. People move around. I am ill informed on all this but the trends do not look good to me. If we get to a stage where the government won’t act until the trolleys are in the car park and are making them look bad, that’s their self interest over the needs of the people.
The economy is of course a priority. No income, no taxes. But allowing this to overwhelm health provision and forcing severe restrictions seems the poorest of all choices to me. Not only that, the last two weeks through to New Year was the perfect time to provide a fire break. Work in general falls off then anyway as does schooling.
Surely with all that’s happened in the last two years they’ve learnt more about this than Hancock’s failure to shut the curtains or how far away Barnard Castle is. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 9:32]
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Trouble is far too many won’t follow guidelines until they become mandatory. In an ideal world we would all follow the advice and restrict our activities.
Too many people are just doing what they want with no consideration for others.
It is easy to be taken in by the official stats provided daily. For example comments about hospitalisation rates. They are four days behind the stats for confirmed new cases.
The situation isn’t the same everywhere. Currently it is spreading out from London where cases are in many parts running three times higher than in Suffolk. Essex figures sit between London and Suffolk , Norfolk figures a little lower than Suffolk
The further north you go the lower the current figures but when London figures drop off cases will be rising at a faster rate in NE, NW etc. |  |
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| 106000 cases on 10:26 - Dec 23 with 2150 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| 106000 cases on 09:30 - Dec 23 by Churchman |
Perhaps London is a starting point, but the last time they tried ‘regionalising’ it didn’t work. People move around. I am ill informed on all this but the trends do not look good to me. If we get to a stage where the government won’t act until the trolleys are in the car park and are making them look bad, that’s their self interest over the needs of the people.
The economy is of course a priority. No income, no taxes. But allowing this to overwhelm health provision and forcing severe restrictions seems the poorest of all choices to me. Not only that, the last two weeks through to New Year was the perfect time to provide a fire break. Work in general falls off then anyway as does schooling.
Surely with all that’s happened in the last two years they’ve learnt more about this than Hancock’s failure to shut the curtains or how far away Barnard Castle is. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 9:32]
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I don’t see why we can’t regionalise it - people move freely from England to Wales and Scotland who have different rules?
Plus it might offer some incentive to the anti vaxxers in London. It would stick in the throat a bit if I had restrictions in my area where take up is about 90pc of adults l, because of anti vaxxers overwhelming the NHS in London. |  | | |
| 106000 cases on 10:37 - Dec 23 with 2114 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
| 106000 cases on 20:48 - Dec 22 by chrismakin |
Funny that. The more tests you do tends to be because theirs more symptoms of covid going on leading to higher cases. No one tests for the fun of it |
"No one tests for the fun of it"
You should be testing twice a week, irrespective of symptoms. Most of those infectious with Covid don't even know they have it. The vaccine doesn't prevent contraction of the virus.
I assume you haven't been testing regularly then? |  |
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| 106000 cases on 11:28 - Dec 23 with 2051 views | Ely_Blue |
| 106000 cases on 10:37 - Dec 23 by Cheltenham_Blue |
"No one tests for the fun of it"
You should be testing twice a week, irrespective of symptoms. Most of those infectious with Covid don't even know they have it. The vaccine doesn't prevent contraction of the virus.
I assume you haven't been testing regularly then? |
The guy is an idiot, no easy way to say it, I agree with you and have been testing each and every time I have been going somewhere to visit someone or if I have take train journeys up into London for work and then again in the proceeding days to check I am clear, fortunately (touch wood) everything has been clear so far and I am luck in that I only had my booster just over 2 weeks ago |  |
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| 106000 cases on 12:06 - Dec 23 with 1992 views | Lord_Lucan |
| 106000 cases on 21:43 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
This would be the best end state but I don't think we are there yet. If people stop taking the vaccine we will be back a number of steps and even where we are there were 301 hospitalisations in London today, the highest since January.
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We touched on hospitalisations the other day. Do we have any data to advise how many of the 301 in London are because of Covid or people that have been admitted and have been found to have Covid when tested.
You were rather dismissive the other day when I suggested that these figures are important. I'm not trying to start an argument here by the way but surely if we have to model what is going on in order to predict that the NHS can deal with it then these figures are crucial. |  |
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| 106000 cases on 12:10 - Dec 23 with 1962 views | GlasgowBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:06 - Dec 23 by Lord_Lucan |
We touched on hospitalisations the other day. Do we have any data to advise how many of the 301 in London are because of Covid or people that have been admitted and have been found to have Covid when tested.
You were rather dismissive the other day when I suggested that these figures are important. I'm not trying to start an argument here by the way but surely if we have to model what is going on in order to predict that the NHS can deal with it then these figures are crucial. |
I think somebody posted the incidental stats the other day.
The trouble with incidentals is that even though they didn't go in to hospital with covid, once they are diagnosed they are put into a covid ward which then puts more strain on the service. |  |
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| 106000 cases on 12:16 - Dec 23 with 1956 views | Lord_Lucan |
| 106000 cases on 12:10 - Dec 23 by GlasgowBlue |
I think somebody posted the incidental stats the other day.
The trouble with incidentals is that even though they didn't go in to hospital with covid, once they are diagnosed they are put into a covid ward which then puts more strain on the service. |
That is actually a very fair point.
As I understand it, bed numbers were reduced per ward because of social distancing / covid spread - or is it back to normal now that we can test people.
And are covid wards also 50% beds seeing that they already have the lurgi anyway? | |
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| 106000 cases on 12:23 - Dec 23 with 1940 views | StokieBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:06 - Dec 23 by Lord_Lucan |
We touched on hospitalisations the other day. Do we have any data to advise how many of the 301 in London are because of Covid or people that have been admitted and have been found to have Covid when tested.
You were rather dismissive the other day when I suggested that these figures are important. I'm not trying to start an argument here by the way but surely if we have to model what is going on in order to predict that the NHS can deal with it then these figures are crucial. |
You're questioning a method that has been accepted and used for 2 years. As long as a method is consistent then that is the main thing (as other posters pointed out). It's probably worse to change the method because it would then make comparisons with previous stages pointless.
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| 106000 cases on 12:32 - Dec 23 with 1914 views | GlasgowBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:23 - Dec 23 by StokieBlue |
You're questioning a method that has been accepted and used for 2 years. As long as a method is consistent then that is the main thing (as other posters pointed out). It's probably worse to change the method because it would then make comparisons with previous stages pointless.
SB |
I don't think it's so much comparing with previous figures, but imore that counting incidentals wasn't particularly well known to the general population.
After 2 years of lockdowns and closures people want a more evidence based debate, rather than an emotional one. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 12:34]
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| 106000 cases on 12:37 - Dec 23 with 1895 views | GlasgowBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:16 - Dec 23 by Lord_Lucan |
That is actually a very fair point.
As I understand it, bed numbers were reduced per ward because of social distancing / covid spread - or is it back to normal now that we can test people.
And are covid wards also 50% beds seeing that they already have the lurgi anyway? |
Here's the latest London figures for you mate.
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| 106000 cases on 12:39 - Dec 23 with 1894 views | Superfrans |
| 106000 cases on 20:52 - Dec 22 by _sanctimoanious_ |
time to change the record pal. Yes, it is a serious illness but it's weakening and we simply cannot lock ourselves away forever. Protect the vulnerable and the healthy can continue to live their lives. The answer to the 'overwhelming the NHS' narrative is for this useless self serving government to fund it and staff properly and responsibly. No more sensationalist fear mongering please. |
Not sure how often this needs to be said, but lets have another go.
Omicron is indeed a weaker strain. But it still puts lots of people in hospital - granted, fewer than previous strains, it's true. The latest I read was 40% fewer.
But Omicron is also more contagious. If it was twice as contagious, that would immediately cancel out relative weakness of 40%. But the indications are that it is much more contagious than that.
And, the danger is that hospitals will become overrun with Omicron patients, which not only makes it more difficult to treat the more serious cases (potentially resulting in more deaths than might otherwise have been the case) but also affects our ability to treat patients with other conditions, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc etc.
That's why we have to take this seriously. |  |
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| 106000 cases on 12:40 - Dec 23 with 1889 views | StokieBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:32 - Dec 23 by GlasgowBlue |
I don't think it's so much comparing with previous figures, but imore that counting incidentals wasn't particularly well known to the general population.
After 2 years of lockdowns and closures people want a more evidence based debate, rather than an emotional one. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 12:34]
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Not really sure what you want me to say?
The methodology hasn't changed and has been known to anyone who cared to look into it. I don't decide the way the modelling and metrics are done, if people aren't happy with it I suggest they contact SAGE with their suggestions on how things should be modelled.
As for evidence-based debate, I don't understand your point. Are you inferring that the scientists haven't been using an evidence based debate?
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| 106000 cases on 12:42 - Dec 23 with 1875 views | J2BLUE |
| 106000 cases on 20:52 - Dec 22 by _sanctimoanious_ |
time to change the record pal. Yes, it is a serious illness but it's weakening and we simply cannot lock ourselves away forever. Protect the vulnerable and the healthy can continue to live their lives. The answer to the 'overwhelming the NHS' narrative is for this useless self serving government to fund it and staff properly and responsibly. No more sensationalist fear mongering please. |
You do realise he is front line NHS right? |  |
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| 106000 cases on 12:49 - Dec 23 with 1845 views | Churchman |
| 106000 cases on 12:23 - Dec 23 by StokieBlue |
You're questioning a method that has been accepted and used for 2 years. As long as a method is consistent then that is the main thing (as other posters pointed out). It's probably worse to change the method because it would then make comparisons with previous stages pointless.
SB |
Correct. It’s all about trend analysis. Change the method of measurement if it is completely and utterly wrong but I see no value in doing so otherwise. | | | |
| 106000 cases on 12:54 - Dec 23 with 1826 views | GlasgowBlue |
| 106000 cases on 12:40 - Dec 23 by StokieBlue |
Not really sure what you want me to say?
The methodology hasn't changed and has been known to anyone who cared to look into it. I don't decide the way the modelling and metrics are done, if people aren't happy with it I suggest they contact SAGE with their suggestions on how things should be modelled.
As for evidence-based debate, I don't understand your point. Are you inferring that the scientists haven't been using an evidence based debate?
SB |
Re your last para, no that's not what I'm saying.
Most people have accepted every restriction and lockdown without question. You are an extremely well informed person on this issue and have taken the time and trouble to be in that position. The majority haven't.
But after two years people are now looking at things like incidental, SAGE worst case scenarios and questioning the data behind the decisions. People are attempting to become better informed on the decisions that are affecting them.
What I mean by a more evidence based debate rather than an emotional one is that a year ago, looking at the sort of data coming out of SA and questioning why SAGE only present a worst case scenario to the government would have been met on here with "you callous bastard don't you care about the 150,000 people who have died". Now people can have a debate with better understanding without necessarily being called covid deniers.
I think our media has a better part to play in this debate. No one should be accusing SAGE of deliberately trying to exaggerate the threat from Omicron. But these models have been used by media as "predictions" . We recently had headlines like “Scientists warn infections could hit 2 million a day”, It's scaremongering.
I'm sure you agree that evidence based debates are better than emotional ones. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 13:01]
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| 106000 cases on 12:58 - Dec 23 with 1800 views | Eireannach_gorm |
These graphs give light at the end of the tunnel ( as long as it is not an oncoming train! )
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| 106000 cases on 13:02 - Dec 23 with 1791 views | wkj |
Remarkable - who knew this post was actually all about picking cherries. Stick that in your panini and chew it WKJ. |  |
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| 106000 cases on 13:14 - Dec 23 with 1757 views | Lord_Lucan |
| 106000 cases on 12:54 - Dec 23 by GlasgowBlue |
Re your last para, no that's not what I'm saying.
Most people have accepted every restriction and lockdown without question. You are an extremely well informed person on this issue and have taken the time and trouble to be in that position. The majority haven't.
But after two years people are now looking at things like incidental, SAGE worst case scenarios and questioning the data behind the decisions. People are attempting to become better informed on the decisions that are affecting them.
What I mean by a more evidence based debate rather than an emotional one is that a year ago, looking at the sort of data coming out of SA and questioning why SAGE only present a worst case scenario to the government would have been met on here with "you callous bastard don't you care about the 150,000 people who have died". Now people can have a debate with better understanding without necessarily being called covid deniers.
I think our media has a better part to play in this debate. No one should be accusing SAGE of deliberately trying to exaggerate the threat from Omicron. But these models have been used by media as "predictions" . We recently had headlines like “Scientists warn infections could hit 2 million a day”, It's scaremongering.
I'm sure you agree that evidence based debates are better than emotional ones. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 13:01]
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Sage is not the only outfit modelling Covid for the UK anymore, there are independent forecasters as well, one of which is JP Morgan
"The JP Morgan scenario had Omicron daily hospitalisations at 1,500. The PCCF model developed by Prof Philip Thomas (which predicted the third wave) suggests a peak of 2,800. Both envisage no more restrictions. But no such scenario appears in the Sage papers.
Indeed, ministers are explicitly told to forget about such scenarios ‘for planning purposes’. The latest Sage minutes suggest that a ‘range of values’ have been used to create scenarios for Omicron’s trajectory but that Omicron would need to be at least 90 per cent less severe than Delta to stop the NHS from being inundated" | |
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| 106000 cases on 13:19 - Dec 23 with 1739 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| 106000 cases on 12:54 - Dec 23 by GlasgowBlue |
Re your last para, no that's not what I'm saying.
Most people have accepted every restriction and lockdown without question. You are an extremely well informed person on this issue and have taken the time and trouble to be in that position. The majority haven't.
But after two years people are now looking at things like incidental, SAGE worst case scenarios and questioning the data behind the decisions. People are attempting to become better informed on the decisions that are affecting them.
What I mean by a more evidence based debate rather than an emotional one is that a year ago, looking at the sort of data coming out of SA and questioning why SAGE only present a worst case scenario to the government would have been met on here with "you callous bastard don't you care about the 150,000 people who have died". Now people can have a debate with better understanding without necessarily being called covid deniers.
I think our media has a better part to play in this debate. No one should be accusing SAGE of deliberately trying to exaggerate the threat from Omicron. But these models have been used by media as "predictions" . We recently had headlines like “Scientists warn infections could hit 2 million a day”, It's scaremongering.
I'm sure you agree that evidence based debates are better than emotional ones. [Post edited 23 Dec 2021 13:01]
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You forgot to take into consideration that the dire warning outcomes were ameliorated by the population taking preventative measures. Much like any forecasting, you can only use current data ( unless you are clairvoyant ). It's probably sensible to err to the side of caution when hospital capacity is threatened.
I think the consequences of the Covid-19 outweigh enormously the effects of so called scaremongering. | | | |
| 106000 cases on 13:21 - Dec 23 with 1732 views | footers |
| 106000 cases on 13:02 - Dec 23 by wkj |
Remarkable - who knew this post was actually all about picking cherries. Stick that in your panini and chew it WKJ. |
Don't talk about fruit picking, dear fruit. Don't you know that thanks to Brexit many thousands of tonnes of delicious fruit have been left to rot this year alone? It's a dividend of sorts.
And the less said about the humble panino the better. Although as Nick Griffin once said, we've got recipes for curry now so why do we need the Indians? |  |
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| 106000 cases on 13:23 - Dec 23 with 1712 views | wkj |
| 106000 cases on 13:21 - Dec 23 by footers |
Don't talk about fruit picking, dear fruit. Don't you know that thanks to Brexit many thousands of tonnes of delicious fruit have been left to rot this year alone? It's a dividend of sorts.
And the less said about the humble panino the better. Although as Nick Griffin once said, we've got recipes for curry now so why do we need the Indians? |
What would compel someone to say such a thing? | |
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| 106000 cases on 13:24 - Dec 23 with 1713 views | GlasgowBlue |
| 106000 cases on 13:19 - Dec 23 by Eireannach_gorm |
You forgot to take into consideration that the dire warning outcomes were ameliorated by the population taking preventative measures. Much like any forecasting, you can only use current data ( unless you are clairvoyant ). It's probably sensible to err to the side of caution when hospital capacity is threatened.
I think the consequences of the Covid-19 outweigh enormously the effects of so called scaremongering. |
It's the media who are scaremongering, not SAGE, not the modellers or the people who are making the decisions.
The Models are being presented by the media as predictions when they are not. That leads to an emotional rather than an evidence based debate. | |
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