| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... 11:46 - Mar 21 with 3459 views | itfcjoe |
75 points - 4W 2D 1L - 1%
76 points - 5W 2L or 4W 3D - 4-5%
77 points - 5W 1D 1L - 13%
78 points - 5W 2D - 29%
79 points - 6W 1L - 49%
80 points - 6W 1D - 73%
81 points - N/A
82 points - 7W - 97%
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 11:49 - Mar 21 with 2011 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
Interesting stats, cheers Joe. Blimey, doesn't look good does it? Like 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from our remaining 7 games would be a decent return... yet only gives us a 13% chance of making the play offs. Even with 6 wins from 7 we could be 50/50! |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 11:56 - Mar 21 with 1969 views | Hullblue |
Did I nooooo want to see that, Joe. Because statistics like that are a tragedy, always. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:00 - Mar 21 with 1942 views | hype313 |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 11:49 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Interesting stats, cheers Joe. Blimey, doesn't look good does it? Like 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from our remaining 7 games would be a decent return... yet only gives us a 13% chance of making the play offs. Even with 6 wins from 7 we could be 50/50! |
6 from 7 giving us 50% chance is quite sobering  |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:01 - Mar 21 with 1934 views | CaptainAhab |
So you're saying there's a chance...? |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:03 - Mar 21 with 1906 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:00 - Mar 21 by hype313 |
6 from 7 giving us 50% chance is quite sobering |
On the plus side, if we did make them I'd fancy us to win them - we'd be on one hell of a run! | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:04 - Mar 21 with 1899 views | itfcsuth |
The maximum I think we will get this time around is 77 points - gives us no greater than 13% chances of making the play-offs.
Still believe we will fall 3-4 points short this year. |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:04 - Mar 21 with 1896 views | SouthfieldsBlue |
Absolutely absurd that 79 points would still be odds against for 6th place, shows the spilt in quality in the division this season. | | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:08 - Mar 21 with 1873 views | itfcjoe |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 11:49 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Interesting stats, cheers Joe. Blimey, doesn't look good does it? Like 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from our remaining 7 games would be a decent return... yet only gives us a 13% chance of making the play offs. Even with 6 wins from 7 we could be 50/50! |
Nope, doesn't look good at all - we are capable of winning all our games on an individual basis but when you look at it like that then the League 1 tour will continue into a 4th year.... | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:11 - Mar 21 with 1845 views | TractorCam |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 11:49 - Mar 21 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Interesting stats, cheers Joe. Blimey, doesn't look good does it? Like 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from our remaining 7 games would be a decent return... yet only gives us a 13% chance of making the play offs. Even with 6 wins from 7 we could be 50/50! |
Winning all 7 and then being part of the 3% odds who miss out on the play offs, now that would be an Ipswich play. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:18 - Mar 21 with 1794 views | clive_baker |
Needless to say it's very, very unlikely. If Sheff Wed win their game in hand it's effectively an 8 point gap to 5th and 6th, which isn't going to happen in a month of Sunday's with 21 to play for. If we finish the season on 75 points, 2 ppg from here on in I'll be happy. It won't be enough, but given where we were when KM joined it's hugely encouraging. He's the real deal, next season I wouldn't bet against us being in the top 2. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:20 - Mar 21 with 1781 views | Strimmer |
If I was McKenna and the Ipswich Town players I would simply win all of the remaining games, but that's just me I guess | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:21 - Mar 21 with 1774 views | Kieran_Knows |
Record points total next season it is then ... although not sure how much more my head can take of League 1 refs, but it'll be worth it in the end. |  |
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| FFS on 12:22 - Mar 21 with 1769 views | Dyland |
nft |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:34 - Mar 21 with 1694 views | chicoazul |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:08 - Mar 21 by itfcjoe |
Nope, doesn't look good at all - we are capable of winning all our games on an individual basis but when you look at it like that then the League 1 tour will continue into a 4th year.... |
“Relegation could be good for the club and give us a chance for a full reset and to come back stronger” |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:40 - Mar 21 with 1642 views | hatch |
Right now finishing 8th or higher is seen as a victory. I can't remember the last time we stayed in one league position for so long. I swear we've been 9th every week since Christmas Day.
The only worst time I can remember would be sitting in 24th for most of the relegation season which doesn't really count.
What's equally frustrating is finding ourselves in that position of a win on Saturday taking us no higher with that 5 point gap above...eugh. |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:43 - Mar 21 with 1631 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:34 - Mar 21 by chicoazul |
“Relegation could be good for the club and give us a chance for a full reset and to come back stronger” |
I know you think that's an insult, but it is actually going to work out that way. Without relegation we wouldn't have got Gamechanger... or Ashton... or McKenna. It may have taken more years than any of us wanted, but I do feel we'll be coming back stronger. There's lots to be optimistic about. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:51 - Mar 21 with 1591 views | MattinLondon |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:34 - Mar 21 by chicoazul |
“Relegation could be good for the club and give us a chance for a full reset and to come back stronger” |
Said by only a small number of people but used by imbeciles to make a point (not a very sharp point mind). |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:53 - Mar 21 with 1578 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:51 - Mar 21 by MattinLondon |
Said by only a small number of people but used by imbeciles to make a point (not a very sharp point mind). |
Chickers gets it spectacularly wrong, shocker. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:00 - Mar 21 with 1542 views | LankHenners |
Would take a pretty spectacular collapse from at least a couple of the teams above for us to sneak in at this point.
You could tell from relatively early on it'd be a particularly high bar to reach for the playoffs this season which was why all those stupid points dropped early in the season were a right kick in the balls and even more exasperating that people were happily accepting it as ;part of the process'.
Aim now is just to finish strong, show the 20k+ fans that are now attending that it's worth hanging around next season and push on to be proper title challengers next time around. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:24 - Mar 21 with 1430 views | Vic |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:18 - Mar 21 by clive_baker |
Needless to say it's very, very unlikely. If Sheff Wed win their game in hand it's effectively an 8 point gap to 5th and 6th, which isn't going to happen in a month of Sunday's with 21 to play for. If we finish the season on 75 points, 2 ppg from here on in I'll be happy. It won't be enough, but given where we were when KM joined it's hugely encouraging. He's the real deal, next season I wouldn't bet against us being in the top 2. |
And 75 pts would be just 6 pts more than last season.
That's quite sobering considering the squad this season is so much stronger than last. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:25 - Mar 21 with 1429 views | Radlett_blue |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 12:08 - Mar 21 by itfcjoe |
Nope, doesn't look good at all - we are capable of winning all our games on an individual basis but when you look at it like that then the League 1 tour will continue into a 4th year.... |
Yes, we are, but the reality is that we've drawn 4 of the last 6 & 2 of those draws were against poor teams. Very unlikely we'll get the 80pts which would give us a good chance of the plauy-offs. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:41 - Mar 21 with 1358 views | DJR |
Win our next three games, which is doable, and our chances will presumably go up. But even then it's still a tall order. |  | | |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:48 - Mar 21 with 1332 views | jayessess |
Since January it's required us to be both incredibly good and to get the rub of the green. We got the former but not the latter. |  |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:52 - Mar 21 with 1307 views | clive_baker |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:24 - Mar 21 by Vic |
And 75 pts would be just 6 pts more than last season.
That's quite sobering considering the squad this season is so much stronger than last. |
Certainly highlights how shockingly bad our results were under Cook.
By the end of the season it'll be a full half season under KM. IF we do get to 75 points it would be a return of 46 points from his 23 games in charge, so 2 ppg. Over a season that's 92 points, which generally gets you top 2. It's a full 30 points (!) more than the same calculation based off Cook's 20 games in charge (1.35 pgg), which is firmly mid table form.
What a waste of a season. | |
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| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 14:00 - Mar 21 with 1276 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Updated percentage chances of getting into the play offs.... on 13:41 - Mar 21 by DJR |
Win our next three games, which is doable, and our chances will presumably go up. But even then it's still a tall order. |
The % chance of each points outcome won’t change if we win the next 3, it will just be the likelihood of us reaching those totals that changes (which isn’t quoted within itfcjoe’s post)
What would change the % however would be other sides dropping points unexpectedly. With that in mind I guess us winning on Saturday would probably have a small effect given we would be denying a competitor points, but probably not significant as those models will likely already be assuming a win in most of their scenario models (and in the 7 win case it’s already 100% baked in)
The short conclusion here is that it’s over, barring an improbable run or others teams suddenly sh*tting the bed left, right and centre [Post edited 21 Mar 2022 14:01]
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