Forum | So much for 20,000 by Mercian

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So much for 20,000 17:33 - Apr 22 with 4342 views

I was horrified when I heard there would be an estimated 20,000 deaths from Covid19, it seems we will reach that number this weekend. I can see it being closer to 50,000.

So much for 20,000 on 22:19 - Apr 22 with 825 views

Deano69

So much for 20,000 on 18:26 - Apr 22 by jaykay
what have germany, new zealand. and taiwan have in common

A population that will do as they have been advised?

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So much for 20,000 on 22:19 - Apr 22 with 827 views

Trequartista

Mr Whitty said 20,000 would be a good outcome, has he been questioned as to why it is now not going to be a good outcome, or was it just more guessing in the first place.

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So much for 20,000 on 22:20 - Apr 22 with 821 views

Trequartista

So much for 20,000 on 18:11 - Apr 22 by Pecker
Only America will have worse than us.

They are behind us at the moment, per capita.

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So much for 20,000 on 22:25 - Apr 22 with 811 views

TractorWood

So much for 20,000 on 21:35 - Apr 22 by C_HealyIsAPleasure
*Weston, unless you mean it’s all gone a bit John Wayne

Autocorrect. Now fixed.

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So much for 20,000 on 23:30 - Apr 22 with 781 views

Girthyguy

And the rest. Its being played down far too much. We are all in danger. I wouldn't be surprised if we lose more or less 200k from this virus in our country alone. Not to mention the forgotten ones that keep our total down daily because we don't submit any covid deaths outside hospitals. Pathetic government who only care about money keeping the rich rich and making the poor poorer. Hope your proud of yourself Tory voters. Hopefully when this is over the Tory party will be no more. C**TS.

So much for 20,000 on 00:20 - Apr 23 with 749 views

linhdi

So much for 20,000 on 19:32 - Apr 22 by Ftnfwest
Although Belgium’s death rate is double ours for some reason

Belgium includes all deaths from CV19, not just hospital deaths. The FT stat is the best UK comparative, and that would put us above Belgium adjusted for population size.

So much for 20,000 on 00:38 - Apr 23 with 747 views

factual_blue

So much for 20,000 on 18:26 - Apr 22 by jaykay
what have germany, new zealand. and taiwan have in common

A firm belief across the entire population that all vaccinations are sensible?

Undying admiration for the BBC?

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So much for 20,000 on 00:44 - Apr 23 with 738 views

monytowbray

So much for 20,000 on 21:38 - Apr 22 by Ely_Blue
Another nation where the people find it difficult to do as they are told, just like the morons in this country who can’t keep to social distancing and the government guidelines

Earlier in this thread a poster asked who was going to take the challenge to defend the death toll.

I think we may have found our guy.

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So much for 20,000 on 00:45 - Apr 23 with 736 views

monytowbray

So much for 20,000 on 23:30 - Apr 22 by Girthyguy

Feel that rage man.

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So much for 20,000 on 06:31 - Apr 23 with 678 views

ElderGrizzly

So much for 20,000 on 00:44 - Apr 23 by monytowbray
Earlier in this thread a poster asked who was going to take the challenge to defend the death toll. I think we may have found our guy.

Maybe he can bat for Trump, given Donald said 15 cases would soon be zero about 6 weeks ago...

Lambert out. (n/t) on 06:52 - Apr 23 with 668 views

Bloots

So much for 20,000 on 23:30 - Apr 22 by Girthyguy

[Post edited 23 Apr 2020 7:19]

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So much for 20,000 on 07:42 - Apr 23 with 638 views

Ely_Blue

So much for 20,000 on 00:44 - Apr 23 by monytowbray
Earlier in this thread a poster asked who was going to take the challenge to defend the death toll. I think we may have found our guy.

I’m not defending anything, I’m merely saying “facts” as you like them so much.

Fact - people don’t stay at home when they’ve been told to then the virus spreads, I’m sure that even you can agree with that?

Fact - if people had stayed at home when they were told to we would have less infections. Less infections = less deaths?

I don’t need to link you articles from somewhere to prove this do I?
I don’t see pictures of people out in groups in parks in Spain, France & Italy despite their lockdown, I do see it in the UK &US, the 2 countries I was referring to.

Who knows what different scenarios would have done in this country? Had we locked down 2 weeks earlier do you think people would still be respecting that now? I personally don’t think they would have and we would be getting a second or prolonged period of re infection or maybe more deaths because our nhs would have been under prepared, who knows, as I said that’s personal opinion.

As has been stated on many occasions each country has a different set of criteria for dealing with this based on their own unique set of circumstances, in the same way that it spread so rapidly in Italy because of family density of everyone living together I think that population density in our major cities compared to those in other EU countries hasn’t helped - combined with the stupidity of the number of non essential journeys etc in those cities.
Ethnicity also has an effect in those cities given that there are proven statistics that show these groups are more vulnerable than others, does Italy and Spain have such a large BAME population in its cities? Combine that in London, Birmingham etc with the lack of respect for the government guidance and boom there’s a ticking time bomb.

Do I think that the government have got sh1t wrong at some point on this? I’m sure they have.
Do I think that any of this was wilful and neglecting? Hell no, no government does this on purpose, the government and those “making the decisions” are (unlike most people on this board) not medical or scientific experts and were guided by what those experts were saying. If you think anything is wrong in what has happened then blame the governments scientists and experts in the field.

Yes we can blame underfunding in the nhs all we like but has the nhs struggled to cope with the numbers of infections? No. Has arguable one of the best health services in the world in Italy struggled? Yes. We don’t give the government the credit it deserves for stopping this happening, whether that was due to the timing of lockdown, the number of extra ICU beds and field hospitals that have been built or some other factor I don’t have the answer.
What will the long term effects be? Who knows. Will the long term death toll be any different? What’s to say that if we had locked down earlier that we wouldn’t be affected by a 2nd wave once we ease things and the rest of the world does the same, nobody knows or can predict this no matter how much of an expert they think they are.

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So much for 20,000 on 07:49 - Apr 23 with 635 views

ElephantintheRoom

And dont forget by callously emptying the hospitals of patients who urgently need treatment - and opting out of cancer diagnosis, heart disease diagnosis etc etc while most hospitals are kept emptyish just in case there will be a sharp spike in deaths from other causes that wont be put dowen to covid - even though they are down to covid. |And those deaths will also increase for months and years to come due to the failure in early diagnosis.

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So much for 20,000 on 08:06 - Apr 23 with 615 views

WD19

So much for 20,000 on 07:49 - Apr 23 by ElephantintheRoom

“Callously”!?

Have a day off.

So much for 20,000 on 08:14 - Apr 23 with 609 views

Churchman

So much for 20,000 on 07:49 - Apr 23 by ElephantintheRoom

Why have you used the word callously? If you’d been the decision maker, what would you have done?

So much for 20,000 on 08:21 - Apr 23 with 598 views

Nthsuffolkblue

So much for 20,000 on 07:49 - Apr 23 by ElephantintheRoom

I think the Government is handling this poorly.

However, I am unconvinced by what you are suggesting here.

There are always clinical risks to weigh in any medical treatment. If someone has an operation there is a risk they will need intensive care. At the moment intensive care will have a much higher risk attached to it than normal. As a result some treatment that may have been a good idea normally probably isn't at this time.

I know several people who have had treatment as normal ranging from someone diagnosed with cancer who has elected not to have chemotherapy (I would be confident a decision unaffected by Covid) to X-rays in A&E where the only difference was she was not allowed a relative to go in with her and the impression was they were understaffed and the treatment was muddled by them getting her confused with another visitor.

I know someone who has been admitted to hospital with multiple conditions (none of them Covid as far as I am aware) and I know 2 people who received diagnosis scans much quicker than they expected to.

As far as I am aware there is no closure of the NHS but, of course, they will delay non-urgent procedures that have any significant element of risk to them. It does also mean the NHS generally will remain busy for some time after. And when I say busy, I mean even more so than normal. Hence why a paramedic I know was told to take their holiday as booked because if they all delayed it there would be a lack of staff after.

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So much for 20,000 on 09:09 - Apr 23 with 569 views

GeoffSentence

So much for 20,000 on 19:32 - Apr 22 by Ftnfwest
Although Belgium’s death rate is double ours for some reason

They have a very inclusive counting system. They count deaths wherever they occur and for anyone suspected of having coronavirus whether or not that is confirmed.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/107216/coronavirus-how-d

[Post edited 23 Apr 2020 9:10]

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So much for 20,000 on 09:26 - Apr 23 with 560 views

longtimefan

So much for 20,000 on 00:20 - Apr 23 by linhdi
Belgium includes all deaths from CV19, not just hospital deaths. The FT stat is the best UK comparative, and that would put us above Belgium adjusted for population size.

Not quite sure what stats you're using for that assertion. As Belgium's deaths per pop is double our hospital rate, there would have to have been around 18000 UK care home and community deaths for out deaths per pop to match theirs. I've seen nothing to suggest any figure close to that yet?

So much for 20,000 on 09:37 - Apr 23 with 544 views

gordon

So much for 20,000 on 09:26 - Apr 23 by longtimefan
Not quite sure what stats you're using for that assertion. As Belgium's deaths per pop is double our hospital rate, there would have to have been around 18000 UK care home and community deaths for out deaths per pop to match theirs. I've seen nothing to suggest any figure close to that yet?

Accounting for lags in reporting, deaths in the community. It's an estimate obviously, but likely to be the most accurate measure of total excess deaths.

So much for 20,000 on 09:54 - Apr 23 with 543 views

longtimefan

So much for 20,000 on 09:37 - Apr 23 by gordon
Accounting for lags in reporting, deaths in the community. It's an estimate obviously, but likely to be the most accurate measure of total excess deaths.

Thanks. Hadn't seen that death model. Let's hope that's not an optimistic model, as they are suggesting it is!

So much for 20,000 on 09:59 - Apr 23 with 531 views

GeoffSentence

So much for 20,000 on 08:21 - Apr 23 by Nthsuffolkblue

It's not only a question of whether the NHS is cancelling operations and that definitely is happening, though to what degree I don't know, but also people who would and should go to hospital because they have early signs that could be serious, but who are not either from fear of contracting coronavirus or concern at putting more pressure on the NHS.

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So much for 20,000 on 10:05 - Apr 23 with 522 views

gordon

So much for 20,000 on 09:54 - Apr 23 by longtimefan
Thanks. Hadn't seen that death model. Let's hope that's not an optimistic model, as they are suggesting it is!

This is also really interesting, for all the people referring to demography on here - an R-squared of 0.02 means that there isn't a significant relationship between population size and growth in deaths.

So much for 20,000 on 10:06 - Apr 23 with 524 views

catch74

So much for 20,000 on 18:27 - Apr 22 by Swansea_Blue
They've all got an 'a' in their name?

You can leave the a out of that sentence.

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So much for 20,000 on 11:37 - Apr 23 with 492 views

Theonlywayisup

About a month ago I said on here I'd be delighted if it was only 20,000 which was the amount in Italy at the time to which I was rebuffed. However with the poor tactics the government have used from the outset and the fact most people do not understand the exponential growth on top of the fact planes arriving from all over with no checks it's completely obvious this would be the case. The sad thing is we are no where near the limit and at this stage 50,000 would be a good number although it will almost certainly be more especially if you want to count the numbers further waves will bring :(

So much for 20,000 on 12:00 - Apr 23 with 482 views

Churchman

So much for 20,000 on 11:37 - Apr 23 by Theonlywayisup

I don’t think the true number will ever be known. People will lose there lives for reasons other than or in addition to C-19 so will recorded in the stats. Others will sadly lose their lives to it and not be recorded at all. The closest measure, I suspect, will be measuring the usual seasonal average for Feb through to when this awful pandemic ends against the figures this year. Normally an average of roughly 50,000 die a month in this country, just to give it some context.

Similarly, we know the numbers of people that have the virus far exceed those in hospital with it, so the stat is meaningless apart from trend analysis. The same applies to the number who lose their lives in hospital. Hospital bed take up is about the best trend measure in my opinion.

All of it is awful. I suppose the one bit of good is how it’s shown the best in so many people, from NHS staff through to fund raisers and people helping out their neighbours etc.

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