| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:53 - Nov 22 with 940 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:43 - Nov 22 by Pinewoodblue |
Did you read the notes related to the figures you have quoted. If you did you presumably didn't understand them.
Here they are
1
Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness
against COVID-19 infection. Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is
summarised on pages 5 to 8 in this report.
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying
statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
- people who are fully vaccinated may be more health conscious and therefore more likely to get tested for COVID-19 and so
more likely to be identified as a case (based on the data provided by the NHS Test and Trace)
- many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age,
their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
- people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social
interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
- people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period
of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus for a few months which may have
contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks
2 Case rates are calculated using NIMS - a database of named individuals from which the numerator and the denominator come
from the same source and there is a record of each individuals vaccination status. Further information on the use of NIMS as the
source of denominator data is presented on page 15 of this report and in the further resources below.
[Post edited 22 Nov 2021 17:44]
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Indeed. The key point here is that the figures are "unadjusted".
This means there will be lots of bias in the collection that means anyone comparing those figures is mistaken to do so.
The main will be the age bias. The elderly will be way more likely to be vaccinated. They will also be way more likely to getting tested, as they are more vulnerable.
So the raw results from tests (Unadjusted) are simply not a fair reflection on the actual rates that are prevalent until such factors are modeled. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:57 - Nov 22 with 927 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:53 - Nov 22 by Lightworker |
Yes I did, none of those factors are likely to make anything other than a minor difference to the raw data which still suggests vaccinated people are as likely to catch and transmit covid as unvaccinated at the present time.
The fact that so many people are jumping on me and trying to discredit my position rather than the poster who wishes to treat his own family like they are sub-human for choosing not to take a vaccine says much about where society is at currently. The Government and media have done a great job at dividing people yet again. Sad times.
I'll leave you all to it. |
"none of those factors are likely to make anything other than a minor difference to the raw data"
Clearly the people writing the report think that is bobbins (Hence their notes) ...but hey, you obviously think you know better than the statisticians who pulled the report together. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:03 - Nov 22 with 894 views | m14_blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:53 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Indeed. The key point here is that the figures are "unadjusted".
This means there will be lots of bias in the collection that means anyone comparing those figures is mistaken to do so.
The main will be the age bias. The elderly will be way more likely to be vaccinated. They will also be way more likely to getting tested, as they are more vulnerable.
So the raw results from tests (Unadjusted) are simply not a fair reflection on the actual rates that are prevalent until such factors are modeled. |
Yep, classic case of correlation not equalling causation here. |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:06 - Nov 22 with 878 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:03 - Nov 22 by m14_blue |
Yep, classic case of correlation not equalling causation here. |
I was thinking more Dunning / Kruger tbh. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:08 - Nov 22 with 870 views | DinDjarin |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 16:48 - Nov 22 by BlueBadger |
The sickest though, are overwhelmingly the unvaccinated. And these are the people who are getting into ITU.
These are health people, aged generally 40-60 who are getting admitted to ITU and more often than not, dying. That said, in the last few weeks I've taken people as young as 20 to ITU.
The hospitalised and vaccinated are largely the older and vulnerable population who, whilst needing hospitalisation are largely surviving.
This time last year the latter group were dying in huge numbers. Now, they're mostly not.
Have your jabs, wear your mask, keep on distancing. |
This fact check suggests other wise unless vaccinated people do not get sick and need icu before they pass away?
https://fullfact.org/health/health-guardian-podcast-vaccinated-deaths/ |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:09 - Nov 22 with 861 views | Ewan_Oozami |
Another one not understanding Bayes Theorem... |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:11 - Nov 22 with 856 views | DinDjarin |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:09 - Nov 22 by Ewan_Oozami |
Another one not understanding Bayes Theorem... |
Yes I do.
But that was not what I was responding to.
I was responding to someone saying the majority of people needing icu and itu are non vaccinated.
That is not true.
A snippet from the fact check report
"The most recent report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was published week commencing 25 October. Looking at Covid-19 deaths, it shows that currently more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are dying with the disease in England.
For example, in the over 80s, there were 1,209 reported deaths in fully vaccinated people, compared to 143 deaths in unvaccinated people and 40 deaths of partially vaccinated people, in data covering the period from 23rd September to 24 October." [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 18:16]
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:40 - Nov 22 with 794 views | StokieBlue |
Those numbers taken in isolation don't really allow you to form the argument that you're pushing though. They lack enough context to be sure that the reasons are what you are stating. In fact it's interesting that your own source disagrees with you with regards to the vaccines reducing transmission:
"As described above, several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection. Uninfected individuals cannot transmit; therefore, the vaccines are also effective at preventing transmission."
"An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of
vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha
variant and 35 to 65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to
contacts of unvaccinated index cases"
Without more detail behind the numbers it's impossible to be certain that unvaccinated don't represent more a of risk. We do know that when people have had a booster then their ability to get and pass on the infection is reduced so those numbers are likely to invert quite significantly as the booster programme is rolled out (see the study out of Israel).
It seems a very strange position that you are set upon. May I ask, have you ever holidayed in the Basque country? Mask wearing and vaccinations are popular there and it's a lovely part of the world.
SB |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:42 - Nov 22 with 782 views | Ryorry |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:11 - Nov 22 by DinDjarin |
Yes I do.
But that was not what I was responding to.
I was responding to someone saying the majority of people needing icu and itu are non vaccinated.
That is not true.
A snippet from the fact check report
"The most recent report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was published week commencing 25 October. Looking at Covid-19 deaths, it shows that currently more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are dying with the disease in England.
For example, in the over 80s, there were 1,209 reported deaths in fully vaccinated people, compared to 143 deaths in unvaccinated people and 40 deaths of partially vaccinated people, in data covering the period from 23rd September to 24 October." [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 18:16]
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I'm no statistician, but that could perhaps be put down to unawareness of waning immunity from the second vaccination after about 4-6 months by those who had 2 jabs & therefore thought they were fully protected, so went about life more "normally" - still going on public transport, to crowded pubs, & restaurants, attending events like cinema, theatre, football matches etc. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:49 - Nov 22 with 761 views | Ryorry |
Btw, whilst on thread - did anyone get certificate of having had booster? I didn't, but did for the first two, which seems strange. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:54 - Nov 22 with 741 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:03 - Nov 22 by GlasgowBlue |
I don't agree with all of the poster's positions but the government's own data released this week showed that the rate of cases is significantly higher per 100'000 in the vaccinated than unvaccinated, ages 30 and above.
Of course the most important aspect is patient outcome. You are 32 times less likely to die if you are vaccinated than not. |
How thoroughly inconvenient for those wearing the black and white spectacles! |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:08 - Nov 22 with 705 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:54 - Nov 22 by BanksterDebtSlave |
How thoroughly inconvenient for those wearing the black and white spectacles! |
It's simply untrue though. The ONS data is far better here and will be based on things like community testing which eliminates self selection bias from the data sample.
The ONS data absolutely does not show the vaccinated have higher rates of CV than the unvaccinated. So the bullet the poster thinks he's found is nothing of the sort. It is nothing more than an ill-informed poster who doesnt understand statistics misinterpreting raw data witthout understanding the bias of 'self selection' that occurs within the testing regime. [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 19:14]
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:37 - Nov 22 with 662 views | factual_blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:11 - Nov 22 by DinDjarin |
Yes I do.
But that was not what I was responding to.
I was responding to someone saying the majority of people needing icu and itu are non vaccinated.
That is not true.
A snippet from the fact check report
"The most recent report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was published week commencing 25 October. Looking at Covid-19 deaths, it shows that currently more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are dying with the disease in England.
For example, in the over 80s, there were 1,209 reported deaths in fully vaccinated people, compared to 143 deaths in unvaccinated people and 40 deaths of partially vaccinated people, in data covering the period from 23rd September to 24 October." [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 18:16]
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Bluebadger was speaking, I imagine, from personal experience as a highly qualified ITU type nurse in a Hospital He Is Not In A Position To Name. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:49 - Nov 22 with 618 views | Lightworker |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:32 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
"the majority of cases are currently in the vaccinated in all adult age groups above 30"
From that statement you seem to infer that the vaccine isn't effective in preventing people from contracting Covid.
Let me try and show why that inference isn't a fair one.
Say there were 1000 people in a village. 80% were vaccinated, 20% unvaccinated.
Say the likelihood of catching the virus were 1 in 50 overall.
So you would have 800 vaccinated people and 200 unvacinated. And if both got the vaccine at 1 in 50 that would give:
16 vaccinated people with Covid, 4 unvaccinated with Covid.
Now supposed the vaccine was helpful in reducing transmission, by a half. Everything else stayed the same. So now you would expect
8 vaccinated and 4 unvaccinated people with Covid.
Your opening position of "the majority of cases are currently in the vaccinated in all adult age groups above 30" would be true in this village of 1000 - yet the vaccine would have worked in limiting transmission.
Hope that helps in showing why just because there are more vaccinated people ill, it doesn't therefore follow that the vaccine is ineffective. |
You seem to have missed the rather important fact that the data is per 100'00 of population. |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:52 - Nov 22 with 611 views | Lightworker |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 17:39 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
I haven't challenged his data. I have challenged his inference, which is patently false. |
No it isn't. It is raw data which shows what it shows, you just don't happen to like what it shows so you are trying to find ways to dismiss it. | | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:52 - Nov 22 with 604 views | Swansea_Blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:54 - Nov 22 by BanksterDebtSlave |
How thoroughly inconvenient for those wearing the black and white spectacles! |
If you’re 32x less likely to die being vaccinated and the whole point of the vaccines is to minimise the consequences of catching Covid, I’d say it’s mostly inconvenient to those who haven’t been inoculated (whatever colour their specs). |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:55 - Nov 22 with 589 views | Swansea_Blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:37 - Nov 22 by factual_blue |
Bluebadger was speaking, I imagine, from personal experience as a highly qualified ITU type nurse in a Hospital He Is Not In A Position To Name. |
Well yeah, but some people with no experience whatsoever and no relevant scientific skills have seen a tweet from a feckwhit on the Internet. So it all balances out. [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 19:58]
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:58 - Nov 22 with 568 views | footers |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:37 - Nov 22 by factual_blue |
Bluebadger was speaking, I imagine, from personal experience as a highly qualified ITU type nurse in a Hospital He Is Not In A Position To Name. |
Ipswich Central from what I hear. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:00 - Nov 22 with 567 views | DinDjarin |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:55 - Nov 22 by Swansea_Blue |
Well yeah, but some people with no experience whatsoever and no relevant scientific skills have seen a tweet from a feckwhit on the Internet. So it all balances out. [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 19:58]
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Yeah this feckwit https://fullfact.org/
Guess they must just make stuff up? | | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:02 - Nov 22 with 565 views | jaykay |
so this answer my question i asked on the 16 nov
The impact of Covid on children by jaykay 16 Nov 2021 16:11i wonder how people in hospital with covid this very moment have not been vaccinated
has there been any figures released about those with serious covid regards to vaccinated and non vaccinated.
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| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:02 - Nov 22 with 563 views | Swansea_Blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:58 - Nov 22 by footers |
Ipswich Central from what I hear. |
He could well be Mrs Coppinger for all we know | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:05 - Nov 22 with 543 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:52 - Nov 22 by Lightworker |
No it isn't. It is raw data which shows what it shows, you just don't happen to like what it shows so you are trying to find ways to dismiss it. |
Far from it. I havent even commented on the data, other than to point out it is 'unadjusted'.
Going to leave it as is clear your knowledge is lacking and will go with the government statisticians and their findings rather than your alternative interpretation if raw unadjusted data. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:08 - Nov 22 with 530 views | longtimefan |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:49 - Nov 22 by Ryorry |
Btw, whilst on thread - did anyone get certificate of having had booster? I didn't, but did for the first two, which seems strange. |
No I didn’t either, though I know people who did - another card like the original. However, booster jabs are now shown on the NHS App. | | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:28 - Nov 22 with 489 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:08 - Nov 22 by longtimefan |
No I didn’t either, though I know people who did - another card like the original. However, booster jabs are now shown on the NHS App. |
Had my booster on 13th Nov - I got another card, though the the nurse that did the jab said she often would write on people's original 2 jab card - mine was laminated so I asked for a new one, which I have also laminated - and the booster is now showing up on my NHS app as well. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:28 - Nov 22 with 489 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:08 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
It's simply untrue though. The ONS data is far better here and will be based on things like community testing which eliminates self selection bias from the data sample.
The ONS data absolutely does not show the vaccinated have higher rates of CV than the unvaccinated. So the bullet the poster thinks he's found is nothing of the sort. It is nothing more than an ill-informed poster who doesnt understand statistics misinterpreting raw data witthout understanding the bias of 'self selection' that occurs within the testing regime. [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 19:14]
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Tbf there are a lot of 'mays' in the notes you referenced. | |
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