| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:35 - Nov 22 with 1802 views | Lightworker |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:40 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
Those numbers taken in isolation don't really allow you to form the argument that you're pushing though. They lack enough context to be sure that the reasons are what you are stating. In fact it's interesting that your own source disagrees with you with regards to the vaccines reducing transmission:
"As described above, several studies have provided evidence that vaccines are effective at preventing infection. Uninfected individuals cannot transmit; therefore, the vaccines are also effective at preventing transmission."
"An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of
vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha
variant and 35 to 65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to
contacts of unvaccinated index cases"
Without more detail behind the numbers it's impossible to be certain that unvaccinated don't represent more a of risk. We do know that when people have had a booster then their ability to get and pass on the infection is reduced so those numbers are likely to invert quite significantly as the booster programme is rolled out (see the study out of Israel).
It seems a very strange position that you are set upon. May I ask, have you ever holidayed in the Basque country? Mask wearing and vaccinations are popular there and it's a lovely part of the world.
SB |
Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so.
Studies show that after 3 month immunity starts to drop, I think we can agree on that. I believe what we are seeing here is the figures at their worst presently because a large percentage of the double vaxxed population have now lost immunity against infection and not enough people have yet had the booster dose. I agree with you and I expect these figures to improve in the weeks ahead as more of us get a booster.
I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect. I think if people look at the data and what is happening around them and are honest with themselves they would not really argue against this conclusion.
"it's impossible to be certain that unvaccinated don't represent more a of risk"
This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm seeing some pretty awful things happening around Europe and indeed the World based on a false narrative around people who are unvaccinated. I really dislike what is happening in Austria, Germany, Australia and other places and I think some of language being used to de-humanise a section of society is uncalled for and really quite dangerous.
This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative. I believe in informed consent when it comes to vaccines or any medical procedure and I believe that everybody should have the right to make their own choice free from coercion and pressure. If that is a strange position then I guess I am guilty, but I don't think it is me who holds the extreme position here, the people who are calling for lockdowns, fines and imprisonment for the unvaccinated, they are the ones holding an extreme position, and one that would have been considered completely outrageous prior to Covid.
Regarding your final paragraph, I really haven't got the faintest idea what you are getting at, but no I have never been to the Basque country. I have heard it is very nice though, maybe one day. |  | |  |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:38 - Nov 22 with 1796 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:28 - Nov 22 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Tbf there are a lot of 'mays' in the notes you referenced. |
Thats the whole point Bankster!
There are literally dozens of reasons why taking raw data as a fair representative sample, self selected raw data, is incorrect.
By contrast, the ONS data will be based on unbiased sampling, i.e. They do community testing and ensure those who are in their samples are a fair sample (representation) of the wider population.
Anyone taking unadjusted raw data from self selected tests is the one who is on dodgy ground here. Am sure other posters who understand stats will confirm this too :-)
Is all pretty dull/nerdy but also important too not to use biased data without unadjusting for those biases. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:46 - Nov 22 with 1776 views | BlueBadger |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 18:11 - Nov 22 by DinDjarin |
Yes I do.
But that was not what I was responding to.
I was responding to someone saying the majority of people needing icu and itu are non vaccinated.
That is not true.
A snippet from the fact check report
"The most recent report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) was published week commencing 25 October. Looking at Covid-19 deaths, it shows that currently more vaccinated than unvaccinated people are dying with the disease in England.
For example, in the over 80s, there were 1,209 reported deaths in fully vaccinated people, compared to 143 deaths in unvaccinated people and 40 deaths of partially vaccinated people, in data covering the period from 23rd September to 24 October." [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 18:16]
|
Those figures state literally nothing about ITU admissions though. Which ARE overwhelmingly, the unvaccinated.
Not quite sure why you're so persistently keen to play down the value of vaccination and infection control measure sin literally every single thread on this. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:47 - Nov 22 with 1769 views | BlueBadger |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 16:58 - Nov 22 by WD19 |
Its not sinking in because it is not true. Your are either incredibly disingenuous or just spectacularly bad at maths. Which is it? |
It doesn't need to be an either/or thing... | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:48 - Nov 22 with 1765 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:38 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Thats the whole point Bankster!
There are literally dozens of reasons why taking raw data as a fair representative sample, self selected raw data, is incorrect.
By contrast, the ONS data will be based on unbiased sampling, i.e. They do community testing and ensure those who are in their samples are a fair sample (representation) of the wider population.
Anyone taking unadjusted raw data from self selected tests is the one who is on dodgy ground here. Am sure other posters who understand stats will confirm this too :-)
Is all pretty dull/nerdy but also important too not to use biased data without unadjusting for those biases. |
As I have only dipped into this thread, is there an ONS report on covid rates per 100,000 vaccinated and unvaccinated populations too as well as the one on the government website being referenced? |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:53 - Nov 22 with 1755 views | factual_blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:02 - Nov 22 by Swansea_Blue |
He could well be Mrs Coppinger for all we know |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:53 - Nov 22 with 1770 views | BlueBadger |
You've repeatedly claimed this fullfact link disproves both the OP and my own claim that the majority of ITU covid is unvaccinated.
It merely state sth majority of HOSPITAL admissions are the vaccinated population. I'm not disputing that.
It doesn't, however, disprove the point regarding intensive care admissions.
Because it doesn't mention anything about it, primarily.
The experience of me, my colleagues, locally and nationally is that the majority of ITU inpatients with covid is that the are, overwhelmingly but not exclusively, unvaccinated.
For every vaccinated person I've taken to ITU over the past two months, I've taken 5 or 6 unvaccinated.
Who've mostly died.
Again, I'm not sure why you're so persistently keen to pop up and amateurishly attempt to claim that vaccines aren't effective. [Post edited 22 Nov 2021 20:58]
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:55 - Nov 22 with 1752 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:48 - Nov 22 by BanksterDebtSlave |
As I have only dipped into this thread, is there an ONS report on covid rates per 100,000 vaccinated and unvaccinated populations too as well as the one on the government website being referenced? |
Am sure it will be there for anyone who cares to look for it. And if it states that being vaccinated means you are more likely to catch CV I will happily come and help you with your gardening for a month, gratis.
Happy googling :-) | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:00 - Nov 22 with 1734 views | bluelagos |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:55 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Am sure it will be there for anyone who cares to look for it. And if it states that being vaccinated means you are more likely to catch CV I will happily come and help you with your gardening for a month, gratis.
Happy googling :-) |
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditio
Clearly states that people are more likely to test positive if they are unvaccinated.
BL. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:10 - Nov 22 with 1695 views | Ryorry |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:08 - Nov 22 by longtimefan |
No I didn’t either, though I know people who did - another card like the original. However, booster jabs are now shown on the NHS App. |
Thanks, will chase card up 👠|  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:14 - Nov 22 with 1695 views | BlueBadger |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 19:37 - Nov 22 by factual_blue |
Bluebadger was speaking, I imagine, from personal experience as a highly qualified ITU type nurse in a Hospital He Is Not In A Position To Name. |
Quite telling that he's trying to pretend I'm not in the thread, here.
At least Bluesquid stayed around to try and argue his half-arsed points. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:16 - Nov 22 with 1686 views | footers |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:14 - Nov 22 by BlueBadger |
Quite telling that he's trying to pretend I'm not in the thread, here.
At least Bluesquid stayed around to try and argue his half-arsed points. |
Definitely NOT a Trump fanboy and a close, close follower of the Rittenhouse trial... Hmmm. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:23 - Nov 22 with 1670 views | BlueBadger |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:16 - Nov 22 by footers |
Definitely NOT a Trump fanboy and a close, close follower of the Rittenhouse trial... Hmmm. |
Didn't he appear shortly after FlimFlam ran away crying after Trumpy-wumpy was told not to let the door hit him on the arse on the way out, too? | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:39 - Nov 22 with 1622 views | footers |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 21:23 - Nov 22 by BlueBadger |
Didn't he appear shortly after FlimFlam ran away crying after Trumpy-wumpy was told not to let the door hit him on the arse on the way out, too? |
You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment. | |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 23:00 - Nov 22 with 1514 views | StokieBlue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 20:35 - Nov 22 by Lightworker |
Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so.
Studies show that after 3 month immunity starts to drop, I think we can agree on that. I believe what we are seeing here is the figures at their worst presently because a large percentage of the double vaxxed population have now lost immunity against infection and not enough people have yet had the booster dose. I agree with you and I expect these figures to improve in the weeks ahead as more of us get a booster.
I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect. I think if people look at the data and what is happening around them and are honest with themselves they would not really argue against this conclusion.
"it's impossible to be certain that unvaccinated don't represent more a of risk"
This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm seeing some pretty awful things happening around Europe and indeed the World based on a false narrative around people who are unvaccinated. I really dislike what is happening in Austria, Germany, Australia and other places and I think some of language being used to de-humanise a section of society is uncalled for and really quite dangerous.
This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative. I believe in informed consent when it comes to vaccines or any medical procedure and I believe that everybody should have the right to make their own choice free from coercion and pressure. If that is a strange position then I guess I am guilty, but I don't think it is me who holds the extreme position here, the people who are calling for lockdowns, fines and imprisonment for the unvaccinated, they are the ones holding an extreme position, and one that would have been considered completely outrageous prior to Covid.
Regarding your final paragraph, I really haven't got the faintest idea what you are getting at, but no I have never been to the Basque country. I have heard it is very nice though, maybe one day. |
"Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so."
The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like.
"I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect."
This is hugely unfair. The vaccines were designed and created with the original variant of C19 which had an R of about 2.7. They then coped pretty well with Alpha which was around 4 and they then started to lose efficacy with regards to preventing transmission when Delta came along with an R of >7.
To say they are disappointing is to totally misrepresent the development process of the vaccines and the evolution of the virus. The fact that they still reduced the likelihood of testing positive by between 35% and 65% without a booster against the evolved Delta variant is highly impressive, not disappointing. The fact that they are >90% effective at preventing transmission (Israel study) after a booster is incredibly impressive.
I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing. You could just as easily say the evolution of covid has been impressive, helped by our inability to restrict cases and that it's incredibly impressive that the vaccines have held up so well against the forces of natural selection.
"This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?"
No, because it's categorically proven that after a booster shot (or within 3-4 months of
a second dose) they do represent more risk of transmission.
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm not sure this is where the anger is actually directed. I think for many the anger is directed at the fact that mainly unvaccinated people are taking up ICU wards which could be used for other medical emergencies if those people had taken a vaccine. You yourself have said the vaccine offers great protection against severe covid so those people in hospital are dying for nothing and consuming finite NHS resources which could be avoided.
"This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative."
I don't think this is true, many on this board are basing their views on the science and the fact that people are causing issues which can easily be avoided by taking the vaccine. People are further annoyed by the fact that absolute rubbish is posted on here about vaccines and other covid related issues on a depressingly regular basis.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 00:21 - Nov 23 with 1461 views | XYZ |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 23:00 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
"Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so."
The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like.
"I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect."
This is hugely unfair. The vaccines were designed and created with the original variant of C19 which had an R of about 2.7. They then coped pretty well with Alpha which was around 4 and they then started to lose efficacy with regards to preventing transmission when Delta came along with an R of >7.
To say they are disappointing is to totally misrepresent the development process of the vaccines and the evolution of the virus. The fact that they still reduced the likelihood of testing positive by between 35% and 65% without a booster against the evolved Delta variant is highly impressive, not disappointing. The fact that they are >90% effective at preventing transmission (Israel study) after a booster is incredibly impressive.
I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing. You could just as easily say the evolution of covid has been impressive, helped by our inability to restrict cases and that it's incredibly impressive that the vaccines have held up so well against the forces of natural selection.
"This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?"
No, because it's categorically proven that after a booster shot (or within 3-4 months of
a second dose) they do represent more risk of transmission.
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm not sure this is where the anger is actually directed. I think for many the anger is directed at the fact that mainly unvaccinated people are taking up ICU wards which could be used for other medical emergencies if those people had taken a vaccine. You yourself have said the vaccine offers great protection against severe covid so those people in hospital are dying for nothing and consuming finite NHS resources which could be avoided.
"This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative."
I don't think this is true, many on this board are basing their views on the science and the fact that people are causing issues which can easily be avoided by taking the vaccine. People are further annoyed by the fact that absolute rubbish is posted on here about vaccines and other covid related issues on a depressingly regular basis.
SB |
TWTD's most forensic poster. Much respect.
*Possible confirmation bias, but I trust SB's honesty. I haven't read the stats. |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 09:49 - Nov 23 with 1319 views | bracknell_blue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 23:44 - Nov 21 by J2BLUE |
99.9% of those who need to listen won't take any notice. |
I bet they would if you needed a vacine passport to go to your local Tescos. Other supermarkets are available. Or go to your local pub. Perhaps we should try thi - carrot and stick? |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 10:36 - Nov 23 with 1268 views | GlasgowBlue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 09:49 - Nov 23 by bracknell_blue |
I bet they would if you needed a vacine passport to go to your local Tescos. Other supermarkets are available. Or go to your local pub. Perhaps we should try thi - carrot and stick? |
There is no evidence that vaccine passports are working in a Scotland. So today Nicola is going to expand the vaccine passports scheme. |  |
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 10:54 - Nov 23 with 1243 views | Lightworker |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 23:00 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
"Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so."
The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like.
"I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect."
This is hugely unfair. The vaccines were designed and created with the original variant of C19 which had an R of about 2.7. They then coped pretty well with Alpha which was around 4 and they then started to lose efficacy with regards to preventing transmission when Delta came along with an R of >7.
To say they are disappointing is to totally misrepresent the development process of the vaccines and the evolution of the virus. The fact that they still reduced the likelihood of testing positive by between 35% and 65% without a booster against the evolved Delta variant is highly impressive, not disappointing. The fact that they are >90% effective at preventing transmission (Israel study) after a booster is incredibly impressive.
I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing. You could just as easily say the evolution of covid has been impressive, helped by our inability to restrict cases and that it's incredibly impressive that the vaccines have held up so well against the forces of natural selection.
"This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?"
No, because it's categorically proven that after a booster shot (or within 3-4 months of
a second dose) they do represent more risk of transmission.
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm not sure this is where the anger is actually directed. I think for many the anger is directed at the fact that mainly unvaccinated people are taking up ICU wards which could be used for other medical emergencies if those people had taken a vaccine. You yourself have said the vaccine offers great protection against severe covid so those people in hospital are dying for nothing and consuming finite NHS resources which could be avoided.
"This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative."
I don't think this is true, many on this board are basing their views on the science and the fact that people are causing issues which can easily be avoided by taking the vaccine. People are further annoyed by the fact that absolute rubbish is posted on here about vaccines and other covid related issues on a depressingly regular basis.
SB |
"The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like"
Ok, first off I never mentioned the words "gold standard" so you have literally made that bit up. The quote you have used in your own post however is as follows...
"An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of
vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha variant and 35 to 65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to contacts of unvaccinated index cases"
So you are agreeing with me that the vaccines are less effective now against Delta. Excellent glad we cleared that up.
You accuse me of ignoring the parts I don't like ( which I haven't ) and yet you continue to ignore the raw data which shows that in the real world there are definite concerns about vaccine effectiveness in preventing spread. You also failed to acknowledge a whole load of evidence and a BMJ piece I posted last week about natural immunity because it went again your position. The next time a poster mentions natural immunity are you still going to accuse them of spreading misinformation?
Getting back to the raw case data.....
Age 40-49
Vaxxed - 2043.5
Unvaxxed - 929.5
That is more than double the amount of cases in the vaxxed population. Not, slightly less, not equal, but more than twice the amount. Even accounting for any adjustments that could be made for biases etc. those are are still very concerning numbers in my book. As I said I do believe the boosters will improve that situation and the numbers will improve but only in the short term. To try and downplay this as insignificant is disingenuous.
"I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing"
I am not trying to re-write the narrative, I am simply saying that in terms of a tool for preventing transmission I don't feel they have quite lived up to the billing. More importantly though this has to be acknowledged in relation to the increasing authoritarianism that is compulsory vaccines, lockdowns for the unvaccinated only and the vilification of a group of the population. None of this is based on any decent real world evidence.
If People choose not to take the vaccine then they take on the risk that they might end up in ICU, that is their choice. Why should we be angry at such people putting their own lives at risk? People compromise their own health in multiple ways every day that can and do result in using up NHS resources, if there was a press campaign of raising anger against the obese or type 2 diabetics for taking up hospital bed space would that be justifed? Of course not, we know that fat shaming doesn't work and it is far better to try and educate people and help them to make better choices. Why should it be any different around vaccination? | | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 10:58 - Nov 23 with 1227 views | Cotty |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 10:54 - Nov 23 by Lightworker |
"The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like"
Ok, first off I never mentioned the words "gold standard" so you have literally made that bit up. The quote you have used in your own post however is as follows...
"An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of
vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha variant and 35 to 65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to contacts of unvaccinated index cases"
So you are agreeing with me that the vaccines are less effective now against Delta. Excellent glad we cleared that up.
You accuse me of ignoring the parts I don't like ( which I haven't ) and yet you continue to ignore the raw data which shows that in the real world there are definite concerns about vaccine effectiveness in preventing spread. You also failed to acknowledge a whole load of evidence and a BMJ piece I posted last week about natural immunity because it went again your position. The next time a poster mentions natural immunity are you still going to accuse them of spreading misinformation?
Getting back to the raw case data.....
Age 40-49
Vaxxed - 2043.5
Unvaxxed - 929.5
That is more than double the amount of cases in the vaxxed population. Not, slightly less, not equal, but more than twice the amount. Even accounting for any adjustments that could be made for biases etc. those are are still very concerning numbers in my book. As I said I do believe the boosters will improve that situation and the numbers will improve but only in the short term. To try and downplay this as insignificant is disingenuous.
"I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing"
I am not trying to re-write the narrative, I am simply saying that in terms of a tool for preventing transmission I don't feel they have quite lived up to the billing. More importantly though this has to be acknowledged in relation to the increasing authoritarianism that is compulsory vaccines, lockdowns for the unvaccinated only and the vilification of a group of the population. None of this is based on any decent real world evidence.
If People choose not to take the vaccine then they take on the risk that they might end up in ICU, that is their choice. Why should we be angry at such people putting their own lives at risk? People compromise their own health in multiple ways every day that can and do result in using up NHS resources, if there was a press campaign of raising anger against the obese or type 2 diabetics for taking up hospital bed space would that be justifed? Of course not, we know that fat shaming doesn't work and it is far better to try and educate people and help them to make better choices. Why should it be any different around vaccination? |
Being vaccinated gives you a much better chance of avoiding hospital, an excellent chance of avoiding ITU, and an even better chance of avoiding death. Everything else is noise.
If you'd been chucked out of a plane, would you refuse to open the parachute because of the risk of whiplash, or because you might twist your ankle on landing?
Getting vaccinated is a no-brainer, and not doing so has a quantitive impact on society through increased ITU admissions. |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 11:02 - Nov 23 with 1209 views | Swansea_Blue |
My comment was more generic about how most people aren't equipped to critique information they find on the internet, some of which may be from bad actors.
I agree that fact checking sites have a role to play though. [Post edited 23 Nov 2021 11:38]
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 11:03 - Nov 23 with 1218 views | Lightworker |
Former ONS statistician suggests this story is an outlier and not based on the actual numbers.
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| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 11:14 - Nov 23 with 1177 views | fab_lover |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 23:00 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
"Most of the studies they refer to are based on Alpha, against which the vaccines were more effective. Since delta became the dominant variant they have been less so."
The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like.
"I believe in the vaccines as great protection against a severe Covid outcome but as I said to you the other day I think they are disappointing in terms of reducing cases and transmission. It is not a great vaccine in that respect if you need a booster after 3 months to maintain the effect."
This is hugely unfair. The vaccines were designed and created with the original variant of C19 which had an R of about 2.7. They then coped pretty well with Alpha which was around 4 and they then started to lose efficacy with regards to preventing transmission when Delta came along with an R of >7.
To say they are disappointing is to totally misrepresent the development process of the vaccines and the evolution of the virus. The fact that they still reduced the likelihood of testing positive by between 35% and 65% without a booster against the evolved Delta variant is highly impressive, not disappointing. The fact that they are >90% effective at preventing transmission (Israel study) after a booster is incredibly impressive.
I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing. You could just as easily say the evolution of covid has been impressive, helped by our inability to restrict cases and that it's incredibly impressive that the vaccines have held up so well against the forces of natural selection.
"This is true, but it is it not equally true that it is impossible to say categorically that they do?"
No, because it's categorically proven that after a booster shot (or within 3-4 months of
a second dose) they do represent more risk of transmission.
The position I am taking is that I don't like the hate and discrimination I am seeing directed towards the unvaccinated, especially when it is based around a false perception that everybody who is unvaccinated is spreading covid and that everybody who is vaccinated isn't.
I'm not sure this is where the anger is actually directed. I think for many the anger is directed at the fact that mainly unvaccinated people are taking up ICU wards which could be used for other medical emergencies if those people had taken a vaccine. You yourself have said the vaccine offers great protection against severe covid so those people in hospital are dying for nothing and consuming finite NHS resources which could be avoided.
"This is filtering through to people in the UK and indeed this board who are basing their views on the same false narrative."
I don't think this is true, many on this board are basing their views on the science and the fact that people are causing issues which can easily be avoided by taking the vaccine. People are further annoyed by the fact that absolute rubbish is posted on here about vaccines and other covid related issues on a depressingly regular basis.
SB |
"I think for many the anger is directed at the fact that mainly unvaccinated people are taking up ICU wards which could be used for other medical emergencies "
Nail, hammer, hit.
I've had my booster this morning. As per my first two jabs, I'm quite emotional at seeing volunteers helping out, the efforts being made to give away for free life-saving treatments.
And yes, I know people working in ICU fed up of dealing with people there with Covid because they thought they knew better. And yes, I know several people - one of them an ex I'm still fond of - who have decided they know better.
And my feelings are that if people have refused the vaccine for non-medical reasons, then they shouldn't be in ICU. They should die at home, with pain relief, but that's it.
And if that sounds harsh, I smoke. I know the risks. I would consider the NHS quite within their rights just to give me palliative care only if I got lung cancer.
Rights to make choices, sure. Responsibility for their outcomes - might be an idea. |  | | |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 11:17 - Nov 23 with 1168 views | StokieBlue |
| “ICU is full of the unvaccinated” on 10:54 - Nov 23 by Lightworker |
"The quote I posted referred specifically to Delta and was from your own source which you are saying is a gold standard. You can't cite something then ignore the parts you don't like"
Ok, first off I never mentioned the words "gold standard" so you have literally made that bit up. The quote you have used in your own post however is as follows...
"An analysis from the ONS Community Infection Survey found that contacts of
vaccinated index cases had around 65-80% reduced odds of testing positive with the Alpha variant and 35 to 65% reduced odds of testing positive with the Delta variant compare to contacts of unvaccinated index cases"
So you are agreeing with me that the vaccines are less effective now against Delta. Excellent glad we cleared that up.
You accuse me of ignoring the parts I don't like ( which I haven't ) and yet you continue to ignore the raw data which shows that in the real world there are definite concerns about vaccine effectiveness in preventing spread. You also failed to acknowledge a whole load of evidence and a BMJ piece I posted last week about natural immunity because it went again your position. The next time a poster mentions natural immunity are you still going to accuse them of spreading misinformation?
Getting back to the raw case data.....
Age 40-49
Vaxxed - 2043.5
Unvaxxed - 929.5
That is more than double the amount of cases in the vaxxed population. Not, slightly less, not equal, but more than twice the amount. Even accounting for any adjustments that could be made for biases etc. those are are still very concerning numbers in my book. As I said I do believe the boosters will improve that situation and the numbers will improve but only in the short term. To try and downplay this as insignificant is disingenuous.
"I think it's wrong to try and rewrite the narrative to say they have been disappointing"
I am not trying to re-write the narrative, I am simply saying that in terms of a tool for preventing transmission I don't feel they have quite lived up to the billing. More importantly though this has to be acknowledged in relation to the increasing authoritarianism that is compulsory vaccines, lockdowns for the unvaccinated only and the vilification of a group of the population. None of this is based on any decent real world evidence.
If People choose not to take the vaccine then they take on the risk that they might end up in ICU, that is their choice. Why should we be angry at such people putting their own lives at risk? People compromise their own health in multiple ways every day that can and do result in using up NHS resources, if there was a press campaign of raising anger against the obese or type 2 diabetics for taking up hospital bed space would that be justifed? Of course not, we know that fat shaming doesn't work and it is far better to try and educate people and help them to make better choices. Why should it be any different around vaccination? |
I don't have too long today so I will reply quickly.
"Ok, first off I never mentioned the words "gold standard" so you have literally made that bit up. The quote you have used in your own post however is as follows..."
You ignored the data posted to you by other posters in favour of your own source. If that's not implication that in your opinion it's a superior or "golden" source then I am not sure what is. You don't have to say something specifically for it to be implied.
"So you are agreeing with me that the vaccines are less effective now against Delta. Excellent glad we cleared that up."
You've missed out the entire context of my post here. If you're going to do that then there is really no point in debating with you.
"You accuse me of ignoring the parts I don't like ( which I haven't ) and yet you continue to ignore the raw data which shows that in the real world there are definite concerns about vaccine effectiveness in preventing spread."
I've not ignored the raw data, I've outlined why we might be seeing that difference (although the data others have posted which you have ignored it's debatable that your figures stand up). You have failed to address the points made in that regard of course.
With regards to natural immunity, there are many studies which disagree with what you posted. Why are you bringing up posts from last week?
"I am not trying to re-write the narrative, I am simply saying that in terms of a tool for preventing transmission I don't feel they have quite lived up to the billing."
You've ignored the entire section of my post which covers this so that you can push the same point again. The vaccines were not disappointing at preventing transmission of the original covid or Alpha and are doing OK against Delta or very good with a booster.
It's like teaching your child to speak Spanish but then being upset they can't speak Italian because they are both Latin based languages yet they have evolved differently over the years. The child might be able to understand some Italian but it won't be perfect. The vaccines are doing an incredible job at reducing transmission of a heavily evolved covid variant.
I'm not going to get into a debate with you about "authoritarianism" as that will be totally pointless.
"If People choose not to take the vaccine then they take on the risk that they might end up in ICU, that is their choice. Why should we be angry at such people putting their own lives at risk? People compromise their own health in multiple ways every day that can and do result in using up NHS resources, if there was a press campaign of raising anger against the obese or type 2 diabetics for taking up hospital bed space would that be justifed? Of course not, we know that fat shaming doesn't work and it is far better to try and educate people and help them to make better choices. Why should it be any different around vaccination?"
This is a false equivalence. Both of the examples you've cited have a genetic component and thus not always in the control of the patient, that is not the case with covid.
SB | |
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