| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 163046 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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| Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 22:03 - Nov 4 with 1484 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 22:00 - Nov 4 by ElderGrizzly |
This is big. It could all be over very soon.
They were previously waiting until Thursday 5pm (UK)
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As it should be, Nevada's counting suspension made absolutely no sense in any way shape of form |  |
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| US election megathread on 22:16 - Nov 4 with 1433 views | wkj |
BBC actually calling Michigan but still reluctant to call Wisconsin and Arizona. Where as quite remarkably, The AP is refusing to declare Michigan and they have been very quick to call states this whole time. If the AP and BBC political maps were to merge, and NV does stay blue, the election is over*.
*Yet has only just began with Chief Jizzstain at the tweet deck. | |
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| US election megathread on 22:29 - Nov 4 with 1413 views | Dubtractor |
For those of you in the US, how is the media there covering the way that Big Chief Wotsit is reacting to this? |  |
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| US election megathread on 22:29 - Nov 4 with 1412 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 22:16 - Nov 4 by wkj |
BBC actually calling Michigan but still reluctant to call Wisconsin and Arizona. Where as quite remarkably, The AP is refusing to declare Michigan and they have been very quick to call states this whole time. If the AP and BBC political maps were to merge, and NV does stay blue, the election is over*.
*Yet has only just began with Chief Jizzstain at the tweet deck. |
Michigan is over
1% left, roughly 54,000 votes outstanding. Biden leads by 70,511 |  | | |
| US election megathread on 22:30 - Nov 4 with 1406 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 22:29 - Nov 4 by Dubtractor |
For those of you in the US, how is the media there covering the way that Big Chief Wotsit is reacting to this? |
CNN are ignoring him and even Fox News are not doing their normal sycophant thing | | | |
| US election megathread on 22:33 - Nov 4 with 1390 views | wkj |
| US election megathread on 22:30 - Nov 4 by ElderGrizzly |
CNN are ignoring him and even Fox News are not doing their normal sycophant thing |
From what im seeing, Fox are actually giving Biden the most points. Possibly to incite outrage, but NV and AZ need to seal the deal ASAP for me. | |
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| US election megathread on 22:35 - Nov 4 with 1379 views | DinDjarin |
| US election megathread on 21:36 - Nov 4 by The_Romford_Blue |
Hi mate. Hope all is well.
Interesting that the lead for trump is bigger in PA than had been expected at this stage. Trumps odds for it are gradually shortening too. 5/4 from 7/4 now.
Would never have thought at 3am this morning when trump was looking like winning outright that trump could win PA but it all be over by then in favour of Biden. Although.. plenty did guess the courts would have to be used to settle it in the end as Donald goes kicking and screaming |
Trump optimistic about winning PA, GA and NC. They are hoping for AZ also as claim they should win by 30,000 and have not conceded yet.
Biden takes WI, MI and NV = 258 - 280
Already lawsuits at all levels being files in PA and claims of corruption.
Noone is winning this for weeks if not months yet as no side will concede. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 23:05 - Nov 4 with 1305 views | Dubtractor |
Fook me.
Randi Reed (Republican candidate) is on Newsnight at the mo, I don't think I've ever heard such a stream of nonsense from anyone in years, let alone a so called politician. And I've seen Desmond Swayne on the telly. [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 23:09]
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| US election megathread on 23:10 - Nov 4 with 1277 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 22:35 - Nov 4 by DinDjarin |
Trump optimistic about winning PA, GA and NC. They are hoping for AZ also as claim they should win by 30,000 and have not conceded yet.
Biden takes WI, MI and NV = 258 - 280
Already lawsuits at all levels being files in PA and claims of corruption.
Noone is winning this for weeks if not months yet as no side will concede. |
He doesn’t have to concede. The media will do that for him if he doesn't have the numbers.
I also expect some senior Republicans to come out and condemn Trump fairly soon if he carries on after Biden gets to 270 | | | |
| US election megathread on 23:18 - Nov 4 with 1263 views | NthQldITFC |
| US election megathread on 22:33 - Nov 4 by wkj |
From what im seeing, Fox are actually giving Biden the most points. Possibly to incite outrage, but NV and AZ need to seal the deal ASAP for me. |
Fox have had AZ for Biden for what seems like days. Proper wound up MrOrange.
I've just built an (obsessive and not terribly reallistic) spreadsheet simulator based purely on projecting trends which has GA staying with Trump by a sliver, but PA going blue. Doesn't matter because AZ and NV are safe so 270 is already done.
Have wasted another 3 hours on one of my spreadsheet obsessions, and I now have a headache. |  |
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| US election megathread on 23:21 - Nov 4 with 1260 views | StokieBlue |
| US election megathread on 23:18 - Nov 4 by NthQldITFC |
Fox have had AZ for Biden for what seems like days. Proper wound up MrOrange.
I've just built an (obsessive and not terribly reallistic) spreadsheet simulator based purely on projecting trends which has GA staying with Trump by a sliver, but PA going blue. Doesn't matter because AZ and NV are safe so 270 is already done.
Have wasted another 3 hours on one of my spreadsheet obsessions, and I now have a headache. |
How are you projecting the trends?
Sounds like fun :).
SB |  | | |
| US election megathread on 23:29 - Nov 4 with 1224 views | NthQldITFC |
| US election megathread on 23:21 - Nov 4 by StokieBlue |
How are you projecting the trends?
Sounds like fun :).
SB |
Oh, really simple and daft, but just using CNN to log and plot vote counts for each side against quoted %counted every half hour or so and then applying linear trend lines and seeing if they cross before %counted = 100%
Also plotting % of remaining vote Biden would need to win each state by 1 vote. Can't think what the trend line for that should be (not linear) but it doesn't cross with the other intercept at the moment.
There's no sound logic behind it, just messing about and testing my bladder! | |
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| US election megathread on 09:30 - Nov 5 with 1000 views | StokieBlue |
| US election megathread on 23:10 - Nov 4 by ElderGrizzly |
He doesn’t have to concede. The media will do that for him if he doesn't have the numbers.
I also expect some senior Republicans to come out and condemn Trump fairly soon if he carries on after Biden gets to 270 |
Is it true that the Pennsylvania Surpreme Court ruled that they will count votes arriving up to 3 days after the election date and that they sent out pre-postmarked ballots which aren't stamped when they get back and thus someone could vote today and have it counted?
I've not seen this anywhere but it's from a friend who is knowledgeable about such things.
That seems bonkers if so as it would seem to open up all sorted of legal avenues for Trump.
SB | | | |
| US election megathread on 09:39 - Nov 5 with 977 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
What am I missing ....looks like Trump can win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Arizona is still tight and Nevada Biden is only 8,000 ahead . Surely Trump can still win without the courts.
Edit...so if Arizona stays Democrat, does it come down to Nevada? [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:41]
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| US election megathread on 09:43 - Nov 5 with 967 views | DinDjarin |
| US election megathread on 09:30 - Nov 5 by StokieBlue |
Is it true that the Pennsylvania Surpreme Court ruled that they will count votes arriving up to 3 days after the election date and that they sent out pre-postmarked ballots which aren't stamped when they get back and thus someone could vote today and have it counted?
I've not seen this anywhere but it's from a friend who is knowledgeable about such things.
That seems bonkers if so as it would seem to open up all sorted of legal avenues for Trump.
SB |
It does seem that something is going on in PA with lawsuits being files there and in MI, WI, AZ, NV. | | | |
| US election megathread on 09:43 - Nov 5 with 966 views | Herbivore |
| US election megathread on 09:39 - Nov 5 by BanksterDebtSlave |
What am I missing ....looks like Trump can win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Arizona is still tight and Nevada Biden is only 8,000 ahead . Surely Trump can still win without the courts.
Edit...so if Arizona stays Democrat, does it come down to Nevada? [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:41]
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Nevada only has some postal votes left to count, and generally Biden has had a huge advantage in postal votes. Whilst nothing can be ruled out, Nevada is more likely to get wider for Biden than anything. |  |
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| US election megathread on 09:46 - Nov 5 with 958 views | DinDjarin |
| US election megathread on 09:39 - Nov 5 by BanksterDebtSlave |
What am I missing ....looks like Trump can win Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. Arizona is still tight and Nevada Biden is only 8,000 ahead . Surely Trump can still win without the courts.
Edit...so if Arizona stays Democrat, does it come down to Nevada? [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:41]
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If Arizona stays Democrat, Biden wins MI and WI, Trump GA, NC and PA then yes NV is in play.
If Biden wins NV and the above happens then it is 269 - 269.
If Trump wins NV then he wins out right even though a tie would favour him rather then Biden anyway.
edit - Actually if Biden wins NV and AZ then it appears he will be on 270 so would win. He must of picked up an odd seat somewhere I missed. [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:50]
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| US election megathread on 10:24 - Nov 5 with 900 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| US election megathread on 09:46 - Nov 5 by DinDjarin |
If Arizona stays Democrat, Biden wins MI and WI, Trump GA, NC and PA then yes NV is in play.
If Biden wins NV and the above happens then it is 269 - 269.
If Trump wins NV then he wins out right even though a tie would favour him rather then Biden anyway.
edit - Actually if Biden wins NV and AZ then it appears he will be on 270 so would win. He must of picked up an odd seat somewhere I missed. [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:50]
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It is that single district of somewhere or other. | |
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| US election megathread on 10:42 - Nov 5 with 871 views | pointofblue |
| US election megathread on 09:46 - Nov 5 by DinDjarin |
If Arizona stays Democrat, Biden wins MI and WI, Trump GA, NC and PA then yes NV is in play.
If Biden wins NV and the above happens then it is 269 - 269.
If Trump wins NV then he wins out right even though a tie would favour him rather then Biden anyway.
edit - Actually if Biden wins NV and AZ then it appears he will be on 270 so would win. He must of picked up an odd seat somewhere I missed. [Post edited 5 Nov 2020 9:50]
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I think he got one electoral college vote off Nebraska. |  |
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| US election megathread on 10:49 - Nov 5 with 851 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 10:42 - Nov 5 by pointofblue |
I think he got one electoral college vote off Nebraska. |
He did. He got on of those weird NCD votes.
Even if Arizona went to Trump, Biden could lose Nevada and still just win PA and get to 273.
Biden’s other route without Arizona is take Georgia (very likely) and Nevada. Then nowhere else matters.
There are many different routes to 270 for Biden, but Trump needs them all basically. | | | |
| US election megathread on 10:51 - Nov 5 with 848 views | DinDjarin |
| US election megathread on 10:49 - Nov 5 by ElderGrizzly |
He did. He got on of those weird NCD votes.
Even if Arizona went to Trump, Biden could lose Nevada and still just win PA and get to 273.
Biden’s other route without Arizona is take Georgia (very likely) and Nevada. Then nowhere else matters.
There are many different routes to 270 for Biden, but Trump needs them all basically. |
I think PA, GA and NC will stay red.
Arizona and NV crucial for Biden. | | | |
| US election megathread on 10:51 - Nov 5 with 844 views | Ryorry |
| US election megathread on 10:49 - Nov 5 by ElderGrizzly |
He did. He got on of those weird NCD votes.
Even if Arizona went to Trump, Biden could lose Nevada and still just win PA and get to 273.
Biden’s other route without Arizona is take Georgia (very likely) and Nevada. Then nowhere else matters.
There are many different routes to 270 for Biden, but Trump needs them all basically. |
Meanwhile -
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| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 5 with 824 views | ElderGrizzly |
| US election megathread on 10:51 - Nov 5 by DinDjarin |
I think PA, GA and NC will stay red.
Arizona and NV crucial for Biden. |
Agree, his easier route is AZ and NV.
Georgia down to 18,000 now, which might still be too much.
PA, even though bigger has many more Biden friendly votes left to count. That could be the big one.
Lets just hope NV call it early today | | | |
| US election megathread on 11:00 - Nov 5 with 817 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 10:51 - Nov 5 by DinDjarin |
I think PA, GA and NC will stay red.
Arizona and NV crucial for Biden. |
Pennsylvania should be pretty much certain for Biden, unless Trump's goons manage to storm the count stations etc. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 11:14 - Nov 5 with 778 views | Ryorry |
| US election megathread on 11:00 - Nov 5 by gordon |
Pennsylvania should be pretty much certain for Biden, unless Trump's goons manage to storm the count stations etc. |
You may have thought you were joking, but -
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