| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron 11:19 - Dec 16 with 4599 views | chrismakin |
And we have 28000 people going to PR Saturday. Incredibly bad management by the government again.
Super spreader event this weekend for all of football. |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:21 - Dec 16 with 1021 views | Metal_Hacker |
Leicester v Spurs now in the balance it's just been announced
Matter of time until the season is suspended for a fortnight - at least |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:30 - Dec 16 with 970 views | clive_baker |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:27 - Dec 16 by StokieBlue |
The R number has shocked many scientists, it's incredibly infectious. Could easily see 100,000 cases today or if not then by the weekend.
The restrictions used previously simply aren't enough to reduce the R to levels that will stabilise the infections like they were for Delta. We could keep Delta R around 1 with only a few restrictions, there seems to be no chance of doing that with Omicron.
So it's fairly simple, a decision has to be made. Do we accept that and let it rip and end up with an unknown maximum number of infections or do we impose tighter restrictions knowing it might reduce the R enough to stabilise but might be an overaction in hindsight if Omicron turns out to be much less severe overall?
That's pretty much where we are now and there will be advocates on both sides.
SB |
I read somewhere about it having the potential to double every day. If it's 100,000 cases and set to double every day, that means nearly everyone would have it on Christmas day. 50m+ of the population.
Would locking down even help anything at this stage, unless it's literally enforced pretty much immediately? [Post edited 16 Dec 2021 12:32]
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:32 - Dec 16 with 962 views | ElderGrizzly |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:21 - Dec 16 by Metal_Hacker |
Leicester v Spurs now in the balance it's just been announced
Matter of time until the season is suspended for a fortnight - at least |
There has been a proposal (from Wolves I think) to postpone this weekends fixtures to create a 10 day firebreak |  | | |
| Equally they are testing.... on 12:35 - Dec 16 with 934 views | Bloots |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:16 - Dec 16 by Guthrum |
Omicron might turn out to be a nasty cold after all.... by Guthrum 15 Dec 2021 23:57Another issue is that South Africa has a significantly younger population than places like the UK (median age of 27.6 years as opposed to 40.4). What has happened there is not necessarily an accurate guide to when it hits ageing populations in the West.
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....1 person per thousand, we are testing 18. |  |
| "Great to see you back on here mate, I was considering deactivating my account if you hadn’t returned" - TWTD User (Aug 2025) |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:37 - Dec 16 with 931 views | unbelievablue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:32 - Dec 16 by ElderGrizzly |
There has been a proposal (from Wolves I think) to postpone this weekends fixtures to create a 10 day firebreak |
I don't see how that will help. Feels like we're at the start of a rising peak of Omicron. |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:39 - Dec 16 with 924 views | ElderGrizzly |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:37 - Dec 16 by unbelievablue |
I don't see how that will help. Feels like we're at the start of a rising peak of Omicron. |
To stop teams travelling across the country and mixing with other teams is the logic
But agree, you're pissing on the Great Inferno at this stage | | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:40 - Dec 16 with 924 views | Ftnfwest |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:10 - Dec 16 by Lord_Lucan |
I agree it looks likely we all might get a dose but with Christmas coming and with all my family being constantly close to me it is is with deep regret i have decided to bin off The Downsetters final ever gig on Saturday night. |
Disappointing, i at least avoided last night's humiliation on live tv by being at the emirates amongst the prawn sandwich munchers with mate who supports the spammers. Smith-Rowe is indeed the real deal. |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:44 - Dec 16 with 896 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:25 - Dec 16 by BlueBlueBluex2 |
Those 28000 don't *have* to go.
However they know the score, have purchased tickets and consciously wish to attend.
I am not sure I see a problem there? |
I bought a ticket before the situation with Omicron was known to be what it is. I am in two minds about going and if I do I will:
Arrive very early.
Wear my mask at all times.
Only use the toilet well before, during or well after the match (i.e. not shortly before, at half time or straight after).
I and my wife are both double jabbed and have both had Covid less than 90 days ago.
We are very much in two minds about going. |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:55 - Dec 16 with 865 views | ElderGrizzly |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:44 - Dec 16 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I bought a ticket before the situation with Omicron was known to be what it is. I am in two minds about going and if I do I will:
Arrive very early.
Wear my mask at all times.
Only use the toilet well before, during or well after the match (i.e. not shortly before, at half time or straight after).
I and my wife are both double jabbed and have both had Covid less than 90 days ago.
We are very much in two minds about going. |
It may be taken out of our hands of course too.
7 games off in the EFL already
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:08 - Dec 16 with 828 views | BonchosBicycle |
We're postponing our whole Christmas trip until spring, which is gutting as we had tickets for Wycombe and Lincoln and a hotel booked for the 29th. I'm not overly concerned about getting particularly sick even if we did get it, but potentially spending our whole vacation in qurarantine or testing positive towards the end and being stuck in the UK for an extra week is just too big a risk. |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:17 - Dec 16 with 808 views | Swansea_Blue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:25 - Dec 16 by BlueBlueBluex2 |
Those 28000 don't *have* to go.
However they know the score, have purchased tickets and consciously wish to attend.
I am not sure I see a problem there? |
I think the problem has something to do with hundreds of thousands of people going to spit over each other at matches when we're in the middle of global pandemic and there's a new very contagious strain starting to rip through the country. Something about people getting ill, missing work, some dying, crippling the NHS, that sort of stuff. |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:25 - Dec 16 with 785 views | BlueBlueBluex2 |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:17 - Dec 16 by Swansea_Blue |
I think the problem has something to do with hundreds of thousands of people going to spit over each other at matches when we're in the middle of global pandemic and there's a new very contagious strain starting to rip through the country. Something about people getting ill, missing work, some dying, crippling the NHS, that sort of stuff. |
Can I have your ticket? |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:34 - Dec 16 with 770 views | Swansea_Blue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:25 - Dec 16 by BlueBlueBluex2 |
Can I have your ticket? |
If I had one, you could. I'm locking myself away until after Christmas. I didn't had a grim Christmas last year with covid and don't fancy another one, however low the risk. | |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:42 - Dec 16 with 742 views | StokieBlue |
Just for some context:
Wuhan C19 without restrictions R ~ 2.7.
Delta without restrictions R ~ 5.1.
Delta with restrictions R ~1.2.
Omicron with restrictions R somewhere between 3 and 5.
SB |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:43 - Dec 16 with 740 views | unbelievablue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:42 - Dec 16 by StokieBlue |
Just for some context:
Wuhan C19 without restrictions R ~ 2.7.
Delta without restrictions R ~ 5.1.
Delta with restrictions R ~1.2.
Omicron with restrictions R somewhere between 3 and 5.
SB |
Delta was 5.1?! That surprises me. | |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:43 - Dec 16 with 736 views | hunty21 |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:30 - Dec 16 by lowhouseblue |
trouble is you need quite an extreme assumption about severity of illness in order to be comfortable with the very high number of cases we're now likely to see. for hospitals not to be overwhelmed the variant needs to be exceptionally mild. |
The data and Jcvi days that yes admissions will rise but the severity is less and therefore many will recover from it if vaccinated, therefore yes the cases are high but the threat to death is low this is the difference and therefore going to a game like rhis shouldn't put people off if you had the vaccine. | | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:44 - Dec 16 with 725 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:25 - Dec 16 by BlueBlueBluex2 |
Can I have your ticket? |
If you are serious DM me. You can 2 adult and 2 children obstructed view for face value. | |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:52 - Dec 16 with 701 views | Churchman |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:39 - Dec 16 by StokieBlue |
The two countries are clearly not the same.
We recorded nearly 4 times as many cases of covid yesterday as they did and it's rising at an exponential rate in the UK. Given this comparisons are not really that applicable.
Given that there are other factors to consider outside severity such as if the NHS can cope with the sheer volume of cases we are going to experience.
SB |
SB, why do you think it’s so bad in this country compared to the rest of Europe to the extent that France is yet again (and rightly) trying to wall up the leper colony that is England?? Are their border controls better? Is it that they enforce rules whereas here nobody cares? We know track and trace was just a nonsense to line a few peoples pockets - what to other countries do that’s better?
I’m interested in your take on it because I am struggling to understand how in the space of two weeks or so we cave over 10,0000 cases and France 100. |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:53 - Dec 16 with 696 views | StokieBlue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:43 - Dec 16 by unbelievablue |
Delta was 5.1?! That surprises me. |
That's the latest number I could find in papers.
Delta was highly transmissible (just look at what happened in India) and that's why it became the dominant strain globally. It's possible that Omicron is around a similar R0 to Delta but is just spreading at a much higher R rate because of it's ability to immune escape. Boosters should certainly help that a lot.
I've not seen any papers showing the R0 of Omicron (ie. natural R in the absence of measures).
SB | | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:54 - Dec 16 with 681 views | townblue |
I'm wavering. Got tickets for friends though so bit of a pain. Don't really want to balls up Christmas though. |  | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:03 - Dec 16 with 638 views | StokieBlue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:52 - Dec 16 by Churchman |
SB, why do you think it’s so bad in this country compared to the rest of Europe to the extent that France is yet again (and rightly) trying to wall up the leper colony that is England?? Are their border controls better? Is it that they enforce rules whereas here nobody cares? We know track and trace was just a nonsense to line a few peoples pockets - what to other countries do that’s better?
I’m interested in your take on it because I am struggling to understand how in the space of two weeks or so we cave over 10,0000 cases and France 100. |
I'm doubt it is any worse in this country than in France, they had 65000 cases yesterday so not too far behind us. I'm fully expecting our number to increase again though.
They certainly have stricter rules, vaccine passports to get in everywhere (even cafes for instance). During the lockdowns they had shopping passes and curfews as well.
I wouldn't put too much stock in the Omicron specific numbers for countries, not all labs that process PCR tests can spot the S-Gene dropout so the numbers could be way off. It might just be that we have more labs that can spot it than other countries do. There is also a second variant of Omicron which isn't getting much press which can't be tracked using S-Gene dropout. It's actually quite different to Omicron BA.1 so might not be as contagious (only 30 overlapping mutations out of 49 and 51 overall).
I suspect part of it is playing to the internal French audience, especially post-Brexit.
SB | | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:24 - Dec 16 with 575 views | Plums |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 12:32 - Dec 16 by ElderGrizzly |
There has been a proposal (from Wolves I think) to postpone this weekends fixtures to create a 10 day firebreak |
It’s a damning indictment on the state of the country when a Black Country football club is doing the government’s job for them |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:26 - Dec 16 with 562 views | Pinewoodblue |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 13:52 - Dec 16 by Churchman |
SB, why do you think it’s so bad in this country compared to the rest of Europe to the extent that France is yet again (and rightly) trying to wall up the leper colony that is England?? Are their border controls better? Is it that they enforce rules whereas here nobody cares? We know track and trace was just a nonsense to line a few peoples pockets - what to other countries do that’s better?
I’m interested in your take on it because I am struggling to understand how in the space of two weeks or so we cave over 10,0000 cases and France 100. |
France, yesterday, had 13,000 new cases less than UK but more than UK the day before.
Brittany Ferries comment on restriction is interesting. “ "In the context of an Omicron variant that is passing through the French population as it is in the UK, further border controls seem as unnecessary as they are unwelcome," it said in a statement.”
Seems more a case of Macron being Macron and remembering he is up for re-election in a few months. |  |
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| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:32 - Dec 16 with 545 views | ElderGrizzly |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:26 - Dec 16 by Pinewoodblue |
France, yesterday, had 13,000 new cases less than UK but more than UK the day before.
Brittany Ferries comment on restriction is interesting. “ "In the context of an Omicron variant that is passing through the French population as it is in the UK, further border controls seem as unnecessary as they are unwelcome," it said in a statement.”
Seems more a case of Macron being Macron and remembering he is up for re-election in a few months. |
We are expecting to see a lot more insular policies in the next month or so.
Makes for a fun Christmas for FCDO colleagues with advice changing every day | | | |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 14:39 - Dec 16 with 518 views | dickie |
| R Number between 3 and 5 for Omicron on 11:28 - Dec 16 by TractorCam |
The doctor who discovered Omicron has said all but one case of the variant has been mild to no symptoms, and that's with over a month of data. The bad management of the government is sending everyone into hysteria, her words! |
In a country with a significantly lower life expectancy in general - I'd imagine there's a fair chance less people have been ill with omicron because the age groups that have largely caught it in SA have been much younger as there are fewer older people. We have an aging population here, it is too early to extrapolate that kind of conclusion going the by the data in South Africa | | | |
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