| US election megathread 03:24 - Sep 23 with 163009 views | SpruceMoose |
Seeing as we are approaching the presidential debates, and with the actual election being only 42 days away, maybe we could keep this as a US election megathread for those on here who are interested? One location for all the discussion would prevent multiple threads clogging up the board for those who don't care to get involved?
Personally, the reality of having to experience this election in the near future is stressful AF so if anyone else wants to get stressed together... Jump on board.
Now, insert all the usual caveats about polling here but...it's looking positive that we will be rid of Trump come 2021, much to the disappointment of a couple of posters on here. 538 are well respected in the field of poll analysis so what they announce should be taken seriously.
Of course their analysis doesn't take account of any election fraud, Russian interference, voter suppression etc. But it's positive news none the less. Once Trump is gone, we can work on Johnson. Decent people of the world... Unite!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ [Post edited 23 Sep 2020 3:32]
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"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country." | | Poll: | Selectamod |
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| US election megathread on 08:24 - Nov 4 with 2597 views | Oldsmoker |
| US election megathread on 08:03 - Nov 4 by EdwardStone |
I don't understand...
Biden has 66.7 million votes vs Trump on 65 mil
Biden has 236 seats vs Trump on 213
And the orange faced man-baby wants to halt the count?
Surely he would lose, no? |
It's the mail-in ballots that were sent in over the last 4 weeks.
They haven't started counting them yet.
All those ballots indicate they are for Biden 55-45.
I don't know how they know that but it seems they do.
Trump is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Philadelphia at the moment but if the mail-in ballots go 55-45 then Biden gets them. |  |
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| US election megathread on 08:28 - Nov 4 with 2582 views | Oldsmoker |
FFS
Failed gob-for-hire Farage is on BBC News now.
This man knows nothing but has a bigoted opinion so the BBC want to hear from him for balance I suppose.
BBC have had Liam Fox, Dominic Raab and now Farage but no-one else.
Balance it ain't. | |
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| US election megathread on 08:32 - Nov 4 with 2548 views | EdwardStone |
| US election megathread on 08:24 - Nov 4 by Oldsmoker |
It's the mail-in ballots that were sent in over the last 4 weeks.
They haven't started counting them yet.
All those ballots indicate they are for Biden 55-45.
I don't know how they know that but it seems they do.
Trump is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Philadelphia at the moment but if the mail-in ballots go 55-45 then Biden gets them. |
You are right, it is a bit of a mystery how they know the content of these unopened envelopes
But if counting were halted now then the numbers suggest to me that Trump is still trailing ergo, he loses |  | | |
| US election megathread on 08:35 - Nov 4 with 2533 views | Swansea_Blue |
| US election megathread on 08:28 - Nov 4 by Oldsmoker |
FFS
Failed gob-for-hire Farage is on BBC News now.
This man knows nothing but has a bigoted opinion so the BBC want to hear from him for balance I suppose.
BBC have had Liam Fox, Dominic Raab and now Farage but no-one else.
Balance it ain't. |
Yeah, their news and current affairs stuff is in the gutter at times. I'm not sure if it's getting worse under their new DG Tim Davie as I don't watch it that often, but these censorship rules for staff he's introduced aren't a good sign. |  |
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| US election megathread on 08:44 - Nov 4 with 2495 views | jimsymBLUE |
Who's this guy, smart fella like this would have made a good candidate.
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| US election megathread on 08:46 - Nov 4 with 2492 views | Oldsmoker |
| US election megathread on 08:32 - Nov 4 by EdwardStone |
You are right, it is a bit of a mystery how they know the content of these unopened envelopes
But if counting were halted now then the numbers suggest to me that Trump is still trailing ergo, he loses |
Trump is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on ballots counted so far.
If they award Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to Trump then he gets re-elected.
In 2 days time when they have counted all the ballots those states will more than likely go to Biden. | |
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| US election megathread on 08:46 - Nov 4 with 2469 views | MonkeyAlan |
| US election megathread on 08:35 - Nov 4 by Swansea_Blue |
Yeah, their news and current affairs stuff is in the gutter at times. I'm not sure if it's getting worse under their new DG Tim Davie as I don't watch it that often, but these censorship rules for staff he's introduced aren't a good sign. |
Don't think the censorship issue is a problem. These so called stars shouldn't be preaching one way or another. They should be impartial in public and social media at least. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 08:54 - Nov 4 with 2451 views | Swansea_Blue |
| US election megathread on 08:46 - Nov 4 by MonkeyAlan |
Don't think the censorship issue is a problem. These so called stars shouldn't be preaching one way or another. They should be impartial in public and social media at least. |
I think a good number rightly told him where to go. He was trying to stop people taking part in events such as BLM protests, Pride, XR. I think he had to back down on that as that would be pure control and censorship (and probably illegal). | |
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| US election megathread on 09:17 - Nov 4 with 2384 views | Swansea_Blue |
238:213 now (BBC lagging, showing 220:213 still). | |
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| US election megathread on 09:21 - Nov 4 with 2373 views | DinDjarin |
| US election megathread on 08:03 - Nov 4 by EdwardStone |
I don't understand...
Biden has 66.7 million votes vs Trump on 65 mil
Biden has 236 seats vs Trump on 213
And the orange faced man-baby wants to halt the count?
Surely he would lose, no? |
No because the states that have not yet declared as still counting Trump is up in and would give him a win. |  | | |
| US election megathread on 09:21 - Nov 4 with 2372 views | gordon |
Bit rich of these yanks to complain about cricket being confusing and going on for too long when they can't put on a decent election night.
Think we should loan them the Sunderland ballot box runners for next time. [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 9:29]
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| US election megathread on 09:33 - Nov 4 with 2335 views | itfcjoe |
Pretty depressing whichever way it goes now, both for the US and the UK as this deliberately divisive politics continues to get votes - Cummings and the shady lot behind him will be emboldened by this.
Trump is trying to steal an election he could quite easily end up winning legitimately |  |
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| US election megathread on 10:17 - Nov 4 with 2239 views | Dubtractor |
Looking at the outstanding results, trump has probably won hasn't he?
Ffs. |  |
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| US election megathread on 10:20 - Nov 4 with 2229 views | itfcjoe |
| US election megathread on 10:17 - Nov 4 by Dubtractor |
Looking at the outstanding results, trump has probably won hasn't he?
Ffs. |
I don't think he has, even if the polls in the rsut belt were as wrong as they were in FLorida Biden still gets across the line.
The mail in votes in Wisconsin and Michigan look like being enough for Biden, that with Arizona basically gets him there I think | |
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| US election megathread on 10:26 - Nov 4 with 2199 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 10:20 - Nov 4 by itfcjoe |
I don't think he has, even if the polls in the rsut belt were as wrong as they were in FLorida Biden still gets across the line.
The mail in votes in Wisconsin and Michigan look like being enough for Biden, that with Arizona basically gets him there I think |
so does he not need PA Joe....that's what worries me. Mail vote to come and will be very much Biden especially in Philly but the gap already looks too big at over half a million votes |  |
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| US election megathread on 10:28 - Nov 4 with 2185 views | itfcjoe |
| US election megathread on 10:26 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
so does he not need PA Joe....that's what worries me. Mail vote to come and will be very much Biden especially in Philly but the gap already looks too big at over half a million votes |
Think Nevada has just tightened right up as well sinc eClark County declared - it's very tight everywhere and will be recounts all over the shop | |
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| US election megathread on 10:30 - Nov 4 with 2173 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 10:26 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
so does he not need PA Joe....that's what worries me. Mail vote to come and will be very much Biden especially in Philly but the gap already looks too big at over half a million votes |
Just looked Ariz, Mich, Wis and Nevada are not enough on their own. He needs either PA, Georgia or North Carolina as well. I'm not sure about any of those 3 unfortunately | |
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| US election megathread on 10:39 - Nov 4 with 2133 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 10:30 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
Just looked Ariz, Mich, Wis and Nevada are not enough on their own. He needs either PA, Georgia or North Carolina as well. I'm not sure about any of those 3 unfortunately |
He just needs Nevada, Wisonsin and Michigan, assuming he does take Arizona. | | | |
| US election megathread on 10:47 - Nov 4 with 2097 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 10:39 - Nov 4 by gordon |
He just needs Nevada, Wisonsin and Michigan, assuming he does take Arizona. |
doesn't that only give him 267 though? | |
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| US election megathread on 10:49 - Nov 4 with 2086 views | N2_Blue |
| US election megathread on 10:47 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
doesn't that only give him 267 though? |
ah you are right Gordon.I forgot about Maine which hasn't declared. Phew!
Still very possible for Biden then | |
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| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 4 with 2055 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 10:49 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
ah you are right Gordon.I forgot about Maine which hasn't declared. Phew!
Still very possible for Biden then |
He's pretty likely to win on the balance of probabilities - in Michigan they've still got hundreds of thousands of votes to count from the Detroit area which should see Biden home comfortably.
I'd guess (without much knowledge) that something going wrong in Nevada or even Arizona is higher risk for Biden, and then if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Think in Nevada and Arizona there could potentially still be lots of rural votes to count. | | | |
| US election megathread on 10:58 - Nov 4 with 2039 views | hype313 |
| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 4 by gordon |
He's pretty likely to win on the balance of probabilities - in Michigan they've still got hundreds of thousands of votes to count from the Detroit area which should see Biden home comfortably.
I'd guess (without much knowledge) that something going wrong in Nevada or even Arizona is higher risk for Biden, and then if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Think in Nevada and Arizona there could potentially still be lots of rural votes to count. |
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| US election megathread on 11:00 - Nov 4 with 2028 views | tractordownsouth |
| US election megathread on 10:30 - Nov 4 by N2_Blue |
Just looked Ariz, Mich, Wis and Nevada are not enough on their own. He needs either PA, Georgia or North Carolina as well. I'm not sure about any of those 3 unfortunately |
Yeah they are enough because Biden won Nebraska's 2nd district. |  |
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| US election megathread on 11:00 - Nov 4 with 2026 views | gordon |
| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 4 by gordon |
He's pretty likely to win on the balance of probabilities - in Michigan they've still got hundreds of thousands of votes to count from the Detroit area which should see Biden home comfortably.
I'd guess (without much knowledge) that something going wrong in Nevada or even Arizona is higher risk for Biden, and then if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Think in Nevada and Arizona there could potentially still be lots of rural votes to count. |
Looks like Nevada could be OK.
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| US election megathread on 11:01 - Nov 4 with 2018 views | Ryorry |
| US election megathread on 10:57 - Nov 4 by gordon |
He's pretty likely to win on the balance of probabilities - in Michigan they've still got hundreds of thousands of votes to count from the Detroit area which should see Biden home comfortably.
I'd guess (without much knowledge) that something going wrong in Nevada or even Arizona is higher risk for Biden, and then if he loses Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.
Think in Nevada and Arizona there could potentially still be lots of rural votes to count. |
When I went to bed (at 7am!) Arizona had been called for Biden tho? This is a 'mare!
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