| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:34 - Jan 11 with 291 views | giant_stow |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 06:54 - Jan 11 by gordon |
There won't be herd immunity, just seasonal outbreaks each winter, the severity of which will depend on what strain is dominant and how well matched the vaccine is. No-one should ever have mentioned herd immunity in relation to COVID, because it just isn't a relevant concept. |
Fair enough Mr and I can see it looks like you know your onions. All I was getting at is with so many people who've had it, isn't the pool of people who can catch it getting smaller, so at some point infection numbers should start to fall, no? (given so many are catching it each day currently) |  |
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| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:40 - Jan 11 with 281 views | bluelagos |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:34 - Jan 11 by giant_stow |
Fair enough Mr and I can see it looks like you know your onions. All I was getting at is with so many people who've had it, isn't the pool of people who can catch it getting smaller, so at some point infection numbers should start to fall, no? (given so many are catching it each day currently) |
"isn't the pool of people who can catch it getting smaller, so at some point infection numbers should start to fall...."
It will, as some point. But whilst that point may be close in East London, it isn't remotely close elsewhere. Simple maths but they estimate 70 to 80% for herd immunity. If we have 20% infected then we are no where near herd immunity from the disease yet.
We may get it though with the vaccinations later this year though. |  |
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| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:45 - Jan 11 with 275 views | giant_stow |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:40 - Jan 11 by bluelagos |
"isn't the pool of people who can catch it getting smaller, so at some point infection numbers should start to fall...."
It will, as some point. But whilst that point may be close in East London, it isn't remotely close elsewhere. Simple maths but they estimate 70 to 80% for herd immunity. If we have 20% infected then we are no where near herd immunity from the disease yet.
We may get it though with the vaccinations later this year though. |
Eeks sorry, I was getting the east London estimates mixed up with the rest of the country. Oops and typical londoner innit. | |
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| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 09:19 - Jan 11 with 258 views | hoppy |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:45 - Jan 11 by giant_stow |
Eeks sorry, I was getting the east London estimates mixed up with the rest of the country. Oops and typical londoner innit. |
To be fair, you do struggle with these 1 in 5 things... being much more comfortable at counting 1 in 6 on your fingers... 😉 |  |
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| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 09:20 - Jan 11 with 255 views | giant_stow |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 09:19 - Jan 11 by hoppy |
To be fair, you do struggle with these 1 in 5 things... being much more comfortable at counting 1 in 6 on your fingers... 😉 |
brute. | |
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| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 09:37 - Jan 11 with 248 views | gordon |
| 1 in 5 has had covid according to a new study on 08:34 - Jan 11 by giant_stow |
Fair enough Mr and I can see it looks like you know your onions. All I was getting at is with so many people who've had it, isn't the pool of people who can catch it getting smaller, so at some point infection numbers should start to fall, no? (given so many are catching it each day currently) |
Yes, that's what will (to some extent) drive the dynamic of each wave, but I'd expect a reasonable proportion of people who are infected this winter to be susceptible to re-infection next winter.
The virus would have to pass through everybody far quicker than is feasible for herd immunity to be realistic.
In the first wave, when people were talking about herd immunity there were some really speculative papers out saying e.g. 50 per cent were infected by mid-April etc. If it was able to spread that quickly it would have been a more relevant concept. |  | | |
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