| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven 16:40 - Nov 22 with 5950 views | gtsb1966 |
but no drinks served after 10pm. I'm assuming this is the government's solution to stop everyone leaving at once. So at 9.55pm.." can I have three pints please". |  | | |  |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:03 - Nov 22 with 1823 views | PhilTWTD |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 20:34 - Nov 22 by factual_blue |
'Your usual viagra chaser, sir?' |
The very definition of a stiff drink. |  | | |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:41 - Nov 22 with 1770 views | StokieBlue |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 20:55 - Nov 22 by vapour_trail |
The 70 tory rebels have asked for a cost benefit analysis. This is exactly what’s required. It won’t be on the button but it requires judgment calls on likely scenarios.
They’re mostly libertarians, which I hold no truck with, but I make them correct on how the government should be approaching this. It’s not all about covid. There are other negative outcomes to consider from locking down and restricting movement.
You have to find the least worst option. |
This is pretty simple though.
If you don't have restrictions, especially during winter when transmission is higher because people are inside more, the cases will rise at a likely exponential level and the NHS will not be able to cope with the cases.
If we are willing to accept this then I guess we open up. If we aren't then we have to stay under restrictions. Deaths have been running at 500+ a day in France, Italy and the UK and they have stabilised with lockdown but that is what we are acknowledging will happen without restrictions.
So what are 500+ deaths a day worth? I don't think a cost/benefit analysis is as easy as some might think. I wouldn't like to do it. It's hard to put a monetary value on a death.
As an aside, one of the arguments against restrictions was that there was no timescales to when they might end. With a vaccine we now have a decent idea on timescales so support can be provided.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:43 - Nov 22 with 1754 views | 26_Paz |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:02 - Nov 22 by Seablu |
You’ve battled valiantly over the last few months so I’ll run with this one.
I was also a self absorbed, self centred & frankly selfish arse when I was in my late teens & early 20’s.
Once Paz grows up, leaves home and realises that life isn’t all about self gratification, getting pissed with your mate & having 10 days on the lash in Crete, he’ll most likely turn into a decent & thoughtful individual.
Until then, a gentle chastisement and some sensible guidance is probably the best anyone can do. |
I’m 33 |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:55 - Nov 22 with 1744 views | bluelagos |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:41 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
This is pretty simple though.
If you don't have restrictions, especially during winter when transmission is higher because people are inside more, the cases will rise at a likely exponential level and the NHS will not be able to cope with the cases.
If we are willing to accept this then I guess we open up. If we aren't then we have to stay under restrictions. Deaths have been running at 500+ a day in France, Italy and the UK and they have stabilised with lockdown but that is what we are acknowledging will happen without restrictions.
So what are 500+ deaths a day worth? I don't think a cost/benefit analysis is as easy as some might think. I wouldn't like to do it. It's hard to put a monetary value on a death.
As an aside, one of the arguments against restrictions was that there was no timescales to when they might end. With a vaccine we now have a decent idea on timescales so support can be provided.
SB |
How much is a life worth? It's a really uncomfortable issue but one that has been used in the NHS for at least 30 years. They use a QALY - which is a quality adjusted life year to compare different treatments and ration treatment accordingly.
As for the £ value they use - how much to spend to save a life - I read the other day that the NHS value 1 year of life at £20-30k.
The D. of Transport use £1m I think I read (sure the number is available) for a whole life saved.
But the whole issue is deeply uncomfortable for many and I for one won't be engaging in debates as to how much a life is worth given they also look at life expectancy and quality of life when evaluating it.
Little bit about them here. But they are used to ration treatment and to decide if spending X is worth it to save Y lives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year
So a CBA could be done, albeit it is not a simple computation.
Like you say - the impending vaccine will have an impact on the calculations they do, as the amount being spent to prolong a lockdown will hopefully be for just a few more months. |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:59 - Nov 22 with 1737 views | itfcjoe |
Think it makes sense, the 10pm strict close with no last orders etc was tough for pubs to manage - this should help at barely any extra risk really and stop people spilling out at same time in the cities |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:09 - Nov 22 with 1726 views | allezlesbleus |
The rumours in France are that all bars and restaurants are going to remain closed until 1 February. That could have a reflection on what Boris decides to do. He has followed most of the French Covid lockdown / tiers restrictions so far, albeit a few days or weeks late. |  | | |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:12 - Nov 22 with 1720 views | StokieBlue |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:09 - Nov 22 by allezlesbleus |
The rumours in France are that all bars and restaurants are going to remain closed until 1 February. That could have a reflection on what Boris decides to do. He has followed most of the French Covid lockdown / tiers restrictions so far, albeit a few days or weeks late. |
We've never been as strict as the French though.
Didn't they have the military on the streets in the first wave and you needed to print off permissions to go out of the house.
Interesting they are considering that move - it's a huge call from Macron.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:16 - Nov 22 with 1712 views | J2BLUE |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:43 - Nov 22 by 26_Paz |
I’m 33 |
Me too. |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:17 - Nov 22 with 1713 views | bluelagos |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:09 - Nov 22 by allezlesbleus |
The rumours in France are that all bars and restaurants are going to remain closed until 1 February. That could have a reflection on what Boris decides to do. He has followed most of the French Covid lockdown / tiers restrictions so far, albeit a few days or weeks late. |
Opening the pubs pre xmas is pretty stupid imho. There is pent up demand for a pint, see your mates, so they are bound to be packed in the cities. Surely they should keep them closed until early January as a precaution. It is the busiest time of the year for pubs so opening them and hoping they are not busy is reckless in the extreme.
And of course the govt should support the publicans to ensure they don't go out of business from lost trade. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:20 - Nov 22 with 1705 views | allezlesbleus |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:12 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
We've never been as strict as the French though.
Didn't they have the military on the streets in the first wave and you needed to print off permissions to go out of the house.
Interesting they are considering that move - it's a huge call from Macron.
SB |
Yeah, we still have to take a form out with us and it is only "essential shopping trips", travelling to / from work, taking kid's to / from school and 1 hour per day excercise, up to 1km from home.
It does seem more lenient than the first, with more shops (eg DIY stores) being open this time round. | | | |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:24 - Nov 22 with 1700 views | J2BLUE |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:17 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Opening the pubs pre xmas is pretty stupid imho. There is pent up demand for a pint, see your mates, so they are bound to be packed in the cities. Surely they should keep them closed until early January as a precaution. It is the busiest time of the year for pubs so opening them and hoping they are not busy is reckless in the extreme.
And of course the govt should support the publicans to ensure they don't go out of business from lost trade. |
Agree. This isn't the time to be pushing the boundaries when we're so close to the vaccine.
For those who have been banging on about freedom for the last 9 months the point was made by a member of SAGE that once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated there will be less need for social distancing because the most likely to have been hospitalised will be protected.
Barring any unexpected set backs we are really close. Now is the time for sacrifice not stupidity. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:28 - Nov 22 with 1687 views | vapour_trail |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:17 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Opening the pubs pre xmas is pretty stupid imho. There is pent up demand for a pint, see your mates, so they are bound to be packed in the cities. Surely they should keep them closed until early January as a precaution. It is the busiest time of the year for pubs so opening them and hoping they are not busy is reckless in the extreme.
And of course the govt should support the publicans to ensure they don't go out of business from lost trade. |
Hospitality looks like the obvious one to shut and support financially.
Shops, gyms, leisure feels a lot safer and should be open along with education. |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:29 - Nov 22 with 1687 views | StokieBlue |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:17 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Opening the pubs pre xmas is pretty stupid imho. There is pent up demand for a pint, see your mates, so they are bound to be packed in the cities. Surely they should keep them closed until early January as a precaution. It is the busiest time of the year for pubs so opening them and hoping they are not busy is reckless in the extreme.
And of course the govt should support the publicans to ensure they don't go out of business from lost trade. |
We went for a walk today, down towards London Fields and then Broadway (which has a market each week). There must have been 150 people queuing to get in the market, all in larger groups which must live in a Tardis and all walking around with a burger in one and an a bloody mary or pint in the other. There were so many people that even with a mask on we decided not to go on and went another way.
I've heard the same from friends in other parts of London as well. Fully accept it's anecdotal but there is no effort from what I can see to enforce any of the lockdown. The definition of an essential shop seems to be slipping daily as well.
If this is what happens during a lockdown when pubs are closed then you can imagine what will happen in a tiered system when the pubs are open.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:36 - Nov 22 with 1674 views | vapour_trail |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:29 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
We went for a walk today, down towards London Fields and then Broadway (which has a market each week). There must have been 150 people queuing to get in the market, all in larger groups which must live in a Tardis and all walking around with a burger in one and an a bloody mary or pint in the other. There were so many people that even with a mask on we decided not to go on and went another way.
I've heard the same from friends in other parts of London as well. Fully accept it's anecdotal but there is no effort from what I can see to enforce any of the lockdown. The definition of an essential shop seems to be slipping daily as well.
If this is what happens during a lockdown when pubs are closed then you can imagine what will happen in a tiered system when the pubs are open.
SB |
I’ve heard the same from one of my team who lives in dulwich, and my brother who lives in tooting.
Where I am on the south coast, it really isn’t like that. Very few places selling alcohol and no crowds anywhere.
I am hopeful the tiered system will reflect this. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:44 - Nov 22 with 1659 views | StokieBlue |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:36 - Nov 22 by vapour_trail |
I’ve heard the same from one of my team who lives in dulwich, and my brother who lives in tooting.
Where I am on the south coast, it really isn’t like that. Very few places selling alcohol and no crowds anywhere.
I am hopeful the tiered system will reflect this. |
I think you've hit the nail on the head.
Whilst trying to ensure shops are open and pop-ups can continue they are selling food and alcohol which then turns them into a destination for people to go to. The whole point of closing the pubs was to stop people having destinations to do this so no idea why these stalls and breweries are allowed to sell takeaway alcohol.
Sounds like where you live they aren't doing this and thus not giving people destinations where they can meet up and drink so you don't have the same issues.
It's totally ridiculous. Absolutely no point closing the pubs if this is allowed. The "meet one person" rule is being totally ignored as well.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:50 - Nov 22 with 1644 views | vapour_trail |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:44 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
I think you've hit the nail on the head.
Whilst trying to ensure shops are open and pop-ups can continue they are selling food and alcohol which then turns them into a destination for people to go to. The whole point of closing the pubs was to stop people having destinations to do this so no idea why these stalls and breweries are allowed to sell takeaway alcohol.
Sounds like where you live they aren't doing this and thus not giving people destinations where they can meet up and drink so you don't have the same issues.
It's totally ridiculous. Absolutely no point closing the pubs if this is allowed. The "meet one person" rule is being totally ignored as well.
SB |
Again, I don’t see this rule being ignored.
There are plenty of people out where I am. I went for a long run this morning and then took my lad out on his bike for a couple of hours this afternoon. People are out walking as there’s very little else to do. Not really noticeably mixing though. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:53 - Nov 22 with 1639 views | StokieBlue |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:50 - Nov 22 by vapour_trail |
Again, I don’t see this rule being ignored.
There are plenty of people out where I am. I went for a long run this morning and then took my lad out on his bike for a couple of hours this afternoon. People are out walking as there’s very little else to do. Not really noticeably mixing though. |
That's not what I've said.
I've said it's being observed where you live exactly because places aren't selling alcohol and giving people centralised places where they can meet up which is what is happening in London.
Without those centralised places to eat and drink people are more likely to follow the rules and just have a walk rather than congregating together.
That's why it's working so well where you live and less well in London in the places we have both highlighted.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:54 - Nov 22 with 1624 views | vapour_trail |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:53 - Nov 22 by StokieBlue |
That's not what I've said.
I've said it's being observed where you live exactly because places aren't selling alcohol and giving people centralised places where they can meet up which is what is happening in London.
Without those centralised places to eat and drink people are more likely to follow the rules and just have a walk rather than congregating together.
That's why it's working so well where you live and less well in London in the places we have both highlighted.
SB |
Yeah that makes sense. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:05 - Nov 22 with 1592 views | jeera |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:54 - Nov 22 by vapour_trail |
Yeah that makes sense. |
It's a bit like Day of the Triffids.
Those congregating in the big towns are making themselves sitting ducks.
At least you have the space and eventually, if you need it, the seawater to save you.*
*Some American old boy said on one of the Youtube videos that it's sea salt that kills the virus. Not any old salt, mind. It has to be sea salt. |  |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:14 - Nov 22 with 1582 views | Seablu |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 21:02 - Nov 22 by Seablu |
You’ve battled valiantly over the last few months so I’ll run with this one.
I was also a self absorbed, self centred & frankly selfish arse when I was in my late teens & early 20’s.
Once Paz grows up, leaves home and realises that life isn’t all about self gratification, getting pissed with your mate & having 10 days on the lash in Crete, he’ll most likely turn into a decent & thoughtful individual.
Until then, a gentle chastisement and some sensible guidance is probably the best anyone can do. |
Come on Paz, I’m not a landlord checking whether you’re old enough to buy a fruit based alcopop....
33??
I’m guessing 17 at most. [Post edited 22 Nov 2020 23:17]
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:34 - Nov 22 with 1570 views | stonojnr |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 22:17 - Nov 22 by bluelagos |
Opening the pubs pre xmas is pretty stupid imho. There is pent up demand for a pint, see your mates, so they are bound to be packed in the cities. Surely they should keep them closed until early January as a precaution. It is the busiest time of the year for pubs so opening them and hoping they are not busy is reckless in the extreme.
And of course the govt should support the publicans to ensure they don't go out of business from lost trade. |
you close pubs till the end of January, there wont be a pub industry in February left.
actually you open pubs under these new rules, there still wont be much of a pub industry in February left.
infact even if you kept the old tier 3 system till March and didnt change things, 94% of pubs in tier 3 will go bust, as will 74% in tier 2.
does that help explain the situation they are in ? there are thousands of pubs at the moment who have stated if they cant open properly on December 2nd, thats it for them, they are closing for good, and just a reminder as per the governments own statistics on infection rates, pubs have contributed no more than 2% of infections since records began.
pubs earn nearly a quarter of their yearly income in December alone, that they use to cover the quieter months, many have been working on no income since March, yet are still expected to pay to run a business they arent allowed to do.
if you believe the risk is real and we need to keep things tightly controlled till this magic vaccine appears (and I applaud everyones optimism that this will simply fix things back to normal) then you should be against opening anything now, and we should be closing schools/universities as well, and completely scrap this household mixing idea at Christmas.
but we all know we are heading for lockdown 3.0 in January as a consequence of these new rules, but at least this time you wont be able to blame the pubs for it. |  | | |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:46 - Nov 22 with 1559 views | jeera |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:34 - Nov 22 by stonojnr |
you close pubs till the end of January, there wont be a pub industry in February left.
actually you open pubs under these new rules, there still wont be much of a pub industry in February left.
infact even if you kept the old tier 3 system till March and didnt change things, 94% of pubs in tier 3 will go bust, as will 74% in tier 2.
does that help explain the situation they are in ? there are thousands of pubs at the moment who have stated if they cant open properly on December 2nd, thats it for them, they are closing for good, and just a reminder as per the governments own statistics on infection rates, pubs have contributed no more than 2% of infections since records began.
pubs earn nearly a quarter of their yearly income in December alone, that they use to cover the quieter months, many have been working on no income since March, yet are still expected to pay to run a business they arent allowed to do.
if you believe the risk is real and we need to keep things tightly controlled till this magic vaccine appears (and I applaud everyones optimism that this will simply fix things back to normal) then you should be against opening anything now, and we should be closing schools/universities as well, and completely scrap this household mixing idea at Christmas.
but we all know we are heading for lockdown 3.0 in January as a consequence of these new rules, but at least this time you wont be able to blame the pubs for it. |
As far as the virus goes, it isn't about double standards, it's about damage limitation.
You cannot compare opening pubs, restaurants, with opening places of education.
Not because the point of them all being among the strongest potential of spreaders being wrong, but because they are just not the same thing.
Yes, the hospitality industry needs support, from its wealthy backers as much as the taxpayer, but that's no reflection on schools/unis.
I'm not sure about the stats regarding where the virus has been caught the most and would have thought the stats show more which category of people are using the ap the most. If that's incorrect please, it's fine to correct me. I won't pretend to know.
It's common sense that anywhere with the most condensed amount of people, sober or otherwise, will be the hotspots. That bit isn't complicated for us to digest. [Post edited 22 Nov 2020 23:58]
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:53 - Nov 22 with 1556 views | J2BLUE |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:34 - Nov 22 by stonojnr |
you close pubs till the end of January, there wont be a pub industry in February left.
actually you open pubs under these new rules, there still wont be much of a pub industry in February left.
infact even if you kept the old tier 3 system till March and didnt change things, 94% of pubs in tier 3 will go bust, as will 74% in tier 2.
does that help explain the situation they are in ? there are thousands of pubs at the moment who have stated if they cant open properly on December 2nd, thats it for them, they are closing for good, and just a reminder as per the governments own statistics on infection rates, pubs have contributed no more than 2% of infections since records began.
pubs earn nearly a quarter of their yearly income in December alone, that they use to cover the quieter months, many have been working on no income since March, yet are still expected to pay to run a business they arent allowed to do.
if you believe the risk is real and we need to keep things tightly controlled till this magic vaccine appears (and I applaud everyones optimism that this will simply fix things back to normal) then you should be against opening anything now, and we should be closing schools/universities as well, and completely scrap this household mixing idea at Christmas.
but we all know we are heading for lockdown 3.0 in January as a consequence of these new rules, but at least this time you wont be able to blame the pubs for it. |
Do you not believe the risk is real?
Do you know how vaccines work? They aren't backed by magic, they're backed by science. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 00:05 - Nov 23 with 1545 views | jeera |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 23:53 - Nov 22 by J2BLUE |
Do you not believe the risk is real?
Do you know how vaccines work? They aren't backed by magic, they're backed by science. |
If mine isn't administered by someone in a pointy hat with some stars around its rim, or at least delivered to my door in tablet form by a barn owl, I'm not touching it. | |
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| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 00:08 - Nov 23 with 1538 views | J2BLUE |
| Pubs are going to be allowed to open until eleven on 00:05 - Nov 23 by jeera |
If mine isn't administered by someone in a pointy hat with some stars around its rim, or at least delivered to my door in tablet form by a barn owl, I'm not touching it. |
When I turn up at yours dressed as Dumbledore, just remember, you asked for it. | |
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