| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer 10:03 - Dec 14 with 2027 views | hype313 |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 with 1909 views | GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:19 - Dec 14 with 1895 views | fab_lover |
On the one hand, good if it's 29% milder, but given it seems incredibly virulent (we've gone from not knowing about it <1 month ago to it predicted to be the dominant strain in the UK by the end of this week) that's still a concern.
If the numbers infected are large enough, even a reduced "payload" in terms of hospitalisations is going to have a devastating impact on the NHS.
I guess we'll know more in 2-3 week's time, but Jan - Feb 2022 are shaping up to be as bad, if not worse, than Jan-Feb 2021; not exactly progress, sadly. |  | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:20 - Dec 14 with 1870 views | nodge_blue |
They said on BBC that in that study they didn't know how many had Omicron or delta. So not very meaningful in my opinion. |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:22 - Dec 14 with 1842 views | unbelievablue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:19 - Dec 14 by fab_lover |
On the one hand, good if it's 29% milder, but given it seems incredibly virulent (we've gone from not knowing about it <1 month ago to it predicted to be the dominant strain in the UK by the end of this week) that's still a concern.
If the numbers infected are large enough, even a reduced "payload" in terms of hospitalisations is going to have a devastating impact on the NHS.
I guess we'll know more in 2-3 week's time, but Jan - Feb 2022 are shaping up to be as bad, if not worse, than Jan-Feb 2021; not exactly progress, sadly. |
Re: the last sentence...and this isn't a criticism, but how can we know that Jan/Feb is going to be worse than last year based on these numbers? I just don't understand the confidence in any projections right now based on the available data. |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:27 - Dec 14 with 1802 views | hype313 |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:19 - Dec 14 by fab_lover |
On the one hand, good if it's 29% milder, but given it seems incredibly virulent (we've gone from not knowing about it <1 month ago to it predicted to be the dominant strain in the UK by the end of this week) that's still a concern.
If the numbers infected are large enough, even a reduced "payload" in terms of hospitalisations is going to have a devastating impact on the NHS.
I guess we'll know more in 2-3 week's time, but Jan - Feb 2022 are shaping up to be as bad, if not worse, than Jan-Feb 2021; not exactly progress, sadly. |
How so? No one was vaccinated in Jan, or very few, we now have millions double and triple jabbed. | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:28 - Dec 14 with 1791 views | ElderGrizzly |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
Around 70-75%
A long thread here
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:28 - Dec 14 with 1788 views | hype313 |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
I did read that the quote stated the other day saying AZ had 0% protection was nonsense, see if I can find it. | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:30 - Dec 14 with 1756 views | unbelievablue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
Headlines vs. caveats...
Headline:Omicron could overwhelm NHS if it is as virulent as Delta, Neil Ferguson says
Caveat: He also added the caveat that the projection was based the premise that Omicron was similar to Delta in terms of the severity of disease it causes. | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:30 - Dec 14 with 1750 views | fab_lover |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:22 - Dec 14 by unbelievablue |
Re: the last sentence...and this isn't a criticism, but how can we know that Jan/Feb is going to be worse than last year based on these numbers? I just don't understand the confidence in any projections right now based on the available data. |
No, fair question.
Those stats say that with 2 jabs (which is what the majority of the UK population have right now) it reduces hospitalisation by 70%: good.
However if transmission rates carry on going up as quickly as they are, then you have a much larger "base" of infected people. So you have 30% of previous hospitalisation rates but applicable to a much larger "base".
People also seem to be capable of getting Omicron even after having had the "booster" shot; there's also the period of time required for the booster to become fully effective, which I believe is measured in weeks, not in days. The target to get everyone the 3rd dose is also unachievable.
Believe me, I don't want to look on the dark side; but that's how I'm reading the stats. | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:30 - Dec 14 with 1749 views | ElderGrizzly |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:28 - Dec 14 by hype313 |
I did read that the quote stated the other day saying AZ had 0% protection was nonsense, see if I can find it. |
The epidemiologist I just linked to above says AZ is (near to) zero at preventing infection, but holds up vs serious illness and hospitalisation and death | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:31 - Dec 14 with 1734 views | StokieBlue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
You're pretty good with any combination with a booster as the antibodies overwhelm Omicron through sheer numbers rather than being specifically effective at targeting the variant.
AZ is actually good for T-Cell coverage so that with anything should be a good combination.
SB |  | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:32 - Dec 14 with 1718 views | StokieBlue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:28 - Dec 14 by hype313 |
I did read that the quote stated the other day saying AZ had 0% protection was nonsense, see if I can find it. |
The studies I saw said it was <10% at stopping infection but the T-Cell coverage was still good against severe illness.
SB | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:34 - Dec 14 with 1703 views | BlueBadger |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:22 - Dec 14 by unbelievablue |
Re: the last sentence...and this isn't a criticism, but how can we know that Jan/Feb is going to be worse than last year based on these numbers? I just don't understand the confidence in any projections right now based on the available data. |
For what it's worth, it's reasonably calm at [redacted] at the moment but I rather fear we're getting another surge post Christmas.
It will probably be spun as 'normal winter pressures' by the powers that be though. |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:34 - Dec 14 with 1690 views | unbelievablue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:30 - Dec 14 by fab_lover |
No, fair question.
Those stats say that with 2 jabs (which is what the majority of the UK population have right now) it reduces hospitalisation by 70%: good.
However if transmission rates carry on going up as quickly as they are, then you have a much larger "base" of infected people. So you have 30% of previous hospitalisation rates but applicable to a much larger "base".
People also seem to be capable of getting Omicron even after having had the "booster" shot; there's also the period of time required for the booster to become fully effective, which I believe is measured in weeks, not in days. The target to get everyone the 3rd dose is also unachievable.
Believe me, I don't want to look on the dark side; but that's how I'm reading the stats. |
Thanks. Just sheer numbers then. A timely reminder of the headline from the other week that 6m or so eligible Brits aren't vaxxed. | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:37 - Dec 14 with 1668 views | hype313 |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:32 - Dec 14 by StokieBlue |
The studies I saw said it was <10% at stopping infection but the T-Cell coverage was still good against severe illness.
SB |
Ahh yes, wasn't nonsense per se, but limited on transmission, but good news on the T-cell coverage, which could be quite important around Omnicrom. | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:38 - Dec 14 with 1656 views | StokieBlue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:20 - Dec 14 by nodge_blue |
They said on BBC that in that study they didn't know how many had Omicron or delta. So not very meaningful in my opinion. |
There is also a second variant of Omicron circulating which isn't easily distinguishable from Delta like the BA.1 variant is without a full genetic test.
So there are (at least) two variants of Omicron with 49 and 51 mutations above the original variant but they only share 30 mutations between them. More research is needed as we don't know both are milder.
Certainly seems like BA.1 is looking milder than Delta which is a good thing although if infections run to crazy levels it will still manage to find vulnerable targets unfortunately.
SB | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:38 - Dec 14 with 1654 views | ElderGrizzly |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:30 - Dec 14 by fab_lover |
No, fair question.
Those stats say that with 2 jabs (which is what the majority of the UK population have right now) it reduces hospitalisation by 70%: good.
However if transmission rates carry on going up as quickly as they are, then you have a much larger "base" of infected people. So you have 30% of previous hospitalisation rates but applicable to a much larger "base".
People also seem to be capable of getting Omicron even after having had the "booster" shot; there's also the period of time required for the booster to become fully effective, which I believe is measured in weeks, not in days. The target to get everyone the 3rd dose is also unachievable.
Believe me, I don't want to look on the dark side; but that's how I'm reading the stats. |
The reality is the sooner people accept the vaccines won't necessarily stop infection, but if you get it they will stop you getting seriously ill or dying, then better.
It also is a dagger in the heart to the anti-vax lot whose sole line appears that vaccines are useless as you can still get it | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:39 - Dec 14 with 1649 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
Some good Covid news. And we’re only on page 1 over half an hour later. Disappointed but not suprised. |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:41 - Dec 14 with 1622 views | Cotty |
It's milder but the reduction in hospitalisations from vaccination is smaller? That seems to be a contradiction. Do they specify what they mean by "milder" anywhere?
Edit: Note to self - actually read the thread before commenting. That reduction is hospitalisations is thought to be because of the demographic of people infected and the length of time since their 2nd jab. So this is still early data.
Also worth noting the points about high levels of natural immunity in the SA population due to previous waves which could lead to different dynamics here. [Post edited 14 Dec 2021 10:45]
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:43 - Dec 14 with 1603 views | StokieBlue |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:38 - Dec 14 by ElderGrizzly |
The reality is the sooner people accept the vaccines won't necessarily stop infection, but if you get it they will stop you getting seriously ill or dying, then better.
It also is a dagger in the heart to the anti-vax lot whose sole line appears that vaccines are useless as you can still get it |
First paragraph is spot on. This isn't like measles whereby you have the vaccine and you can no longer pass it on so herd immunity is possible. It's looking very unlikely that herd immunity is possible with the current vaccines (doesn't mean it won't be possible with future vaccines).
The only real issue with being unable to stop infections is that it gives the virus more scope to play out the rules of natural selection and turn into something nastier.
SB | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:44 - Dec 14 with 1576 views | Swansea_Blue |
That's similar to some of the earlier claims from (Israel maybe) |  |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:46 - Dec 14 with 1541 views | ElderGrizzly |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:43 - Dec 14 by StokieBlue |
First paragraph is spot on. This isn't like measles whereby you have the vaccine and you can no longer pass it on so herd immunity is possible. It's looking very unlikely that herd immunity is possible with the current vaccines (doesn't mean it won't be possible with future vaccines).
The only real issue with being unable to stop infections is that it gives the virus more scope to play out the rules of natural selection and turn into something nastier.
SB |
Agree, we hope it will reduce it (and when boosted it does appear to stop 75%), but it won't stop it all.
Which is why there still needs to be caution. | | | |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:48 - Dec 14 with 1512 views | hype313 |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:41 - Dec 14 by Cotty |
It's milder but the reduction in hospitalisations from vaccination is smaller? That seems to be a contradiction. Do they specify what they mean by "milder" anywhere?
Edit: Note to self - actually read the thread before commenting. That reduction is hospitalisations is thought to be because of the demographic of people infected and the length of time since their 2nd jab. So this is still early data.
Also worth noting the points about high levels of natural immunity in the SA population due to previous waves which could lead to different dynamics here. [Post edited 14 Dec 2021 10:45]
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Guatang province has 70% natural immunity compared to the UK's 90% | |
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:54 - Dec 14 with 1483 views | BlueBadger |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:39 - Dec 14 by The_Romford_Blue |
Some good Covid news. And we’re only on page 1 over half an hour later. Disappointed but not suprised. |
I suspect it's because the 'wE hAvE tO lEaRn To LiVe WiTh It' crowd haven't got anything to complain about when people start suggesting that reasonable privative measures during a global pandemic are still a good idea because here's a story suggesting that reasonable measures are potentially effective. [Post edited 14 Dec 2021 11:05]
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| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 11:08 - Dec 14 with 1398 views | BLUEGOLD |
| First data eminanting from SA around Pfizer on 10:17 - Dec 14 by GlasgowBlue |
If you had posted bad news we’d be on page two or three by now.
Any data on 2 AZ followed by a Pfizer booster? Asking for a friend. |
That may be true, but mainly down to the “it’s only a cold” & “we just have to get on with normal life” brigade trolling us all.
Then of course there used to be dear old Paz with his, but I want to go to the pub and those people would probably have died anyway nonsense too. |  | | |
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