| Comparative death rates 18:12 - Nov 11 with 617 views | NthQldITFC |
Unloaded question. Does anyone with a genuinely good knowledge of the situation, know how meaningful the country by country comparison figures are now?
Is our 'tested positive within 28 days' an international standard, and is it genuinely applied internationally in a dependable way? Is there any removal of RTAs etc.? Is there any info on excess deaths by country anywhere?
Or is it practically impossible to have anything other than a very rough idea of how things vary around the world?
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| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Comparative death rates on 18:25 - Nov 11 with 592 views | Guthrum |
That last is the right answer. Countries assess C-19 deaths in very different ways. Some have little in the way of centralised assessment, or are not in a position to do so, due to lack of infrastructure, large undocumented slums or internal unrest. There is also the inclination among some governments to minimise the issue.
I'd say the UK's "28-day" methodology, while by no means perfect (e.g. RTAs, as you say, while also missing people who die of Covid complications after that time period), is not bad as a general estimate.
There is also the vexed question of whether someone died "of Covid" directly, "because of Covid" affecting other health conditions, or "with Covid" due to unrelated illness. Something which is virtually impossible to differentiate in many cases. |  |
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| Comparative death rates on 18:33 - Nov 11 with 578 views | BlueBadger |
| Comparative death rates on 18:25 - Nov 11 by Guthrum |
That last is the right answer. Countries assess C-19 deaths in very different ways. Some have little in the way of centralised assessment, or are not in a position to do so, due to lack of infrastructure, large undocumented slums or internal unrest. There is also the inclination among some governments to minimise the issue.
I'd say the UK's "28-day" methodology, while by no means perfect (e.g. RTAs, as you say, while also missing people who die of Covid complications after that time period), is not bad as a general estimate.
There is also the vexed question of whether someone died "of Covid" directly, "because of Covid" affecting other health conditions, or "with Covid" due to unrelated illness. Something which is virtually impossible to differentiate in many cases. |
Covid can also facilitate a number of other causes of death of a non-respiratory nature - its propensity to mess with blood clotting could, for example on someone's suseceptibility to heart attack or kidney failure. |  |
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| Comparative death rates on 18:38 - Nov 11 with 553 views | Ftnfwest |
| Comparative death rates on 18:33 - Nov 11 by BlueBadger |
Covid can also facilitate a number of other causes of death of a non-respiratory nature - its propensity to mess with blood clotting could, for example on someone's suseceptibility to heart attack or kidney failure. |
I was going to ask badge, can you officially die of coronavirus as it stands or is it simply something that weakens you so you actually die of something else? I’m presuming you can as something like 1,000 now of the death total were people without underlying health issues. |  | | |
| Comparative death rates on 18:41 - Nov 11 with 546 views | BlueBadger |
| Comparative death rates on 18:38 - Nov 11 by Ftnfwest |
I was going to ask badge, can you officially die of coronavirus as it stands or is it simply something that weakens you so you actually die of something else? I’m presuming you can as something like 1,000 now of the death total were people without underlying health issues. |
Sure you can. It can introduce pretty spectacular type 1 respiratory failure.
(if you're interested type 1 respiratory failure can be defined as 'can't get enough oxygen in' whilst type 2 is 'can't get enough carbon dioxide out'). | |
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| Comparative death rates on 19:25 - Nov 11 with 489 views | gordon |
| Comparative death rates on 18:25 - Nov 11 by Guthrum |
That last is the right answer. Countries assess C-19 deaths in very different ways. Some have little in the way of centralised assessment, or are not in a position to do so, due to lack of infrastructure, large undocumented slums or internal unrest. There is also the inclination among some governments to minimise the issue.
I'd say the UK's "28-day" methodology, while by no means perfect (e.g. RTAs, as you say, while also missing people who die of Covid complications after that time period), is not bad as a general estimate.
There is also the vexed question of whether someone died "of Covid" directly, "because of Covid" affecting other health conditions, or "with Covid" due to unrelated illness. Something which is virtually impossible to differentiate in many cases. |
There was some awful misdirection about the 28-day cut-off from Heneghan et al.
Introducing the 28 day cut-off was a statistical nonsense - the most accurate way to do it would be that whenever someone dies having tested positive for covid it is counted as a covid death - but then the expected mortality (absent of Covid) of the cohort who have tested positive is then subtracted, to adjust for the likely non-covid deaths.
By reducing the cut-off down to 28 days they artificially reduce the death toll really significantly, and it was appalling what Heneghan did - he posted an un-peer-reviewed blog post on his own website proposing this, without mentioning that it would be trivial to get a much more accurate figure than the 28 day cut-off. |  | | |
| Comparative death rates on 20:18 - Nov 11 with 446 views | Guthrum |
| Comparative death rates on 19:25 - Nov 11 by gordon |
There was some awful misdirection about the 28-day cut-off from Heneghan et al.
Introducing the 28 day cut-off was a statistical nonsense - the most accurate way to do it would be that whenever someone dies having tested positive for covid it is counted as a covid death - but then the expected mortality (absent of Covid) of the cohort who have tested positive is then subtracted, to adjust for the likely non-covid deaths.
By reducing the cut-off down to 28 days they artificially reduce the death toll really significantly, and it was appalling what Heneghan did - he posted an un-peer-reviewed blog post on his own website proposing this, without mentioning that it would be trivial to get a much more accurate figure than the 28 day cut-off. |
I doubt there will ever be a truly accurate figure for Covid mortality. Agree that some form of excess deaths is probably best, but even that will require some approximation for the baseline (e.g. screening out the 2016 Flu outbreak if using 5-year figures) and cannot be calculated until the pandemic is over. | |
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| Comparative death rates on 20:29 - Nov 11 with 430 views | longtimefan |
| Comparative death rates on 19:25 - Nov 11 by gordon |
There was some awful misdirection about the 28-day cut-off from Heneghan et al.
Introducing the 28 day cut-off was a statistical nonsense - the most accurate way to do it would be that whenever someone dies having tested positive for covid it is counted as a covid death - but then the expected mortality (absent of Covid) of the cohort who have tested positive is then subtracted, to adjust for the likely non-covid deaths.
By reducing the cut-off down to 28 days they artificially reduce the death toll really significantly, and it was appalling what Heneghan did - he posted an un-peer-reviewed blog post on his own website proposing this, without mentioning that it would be trivial to get a much more accurate figure than the 28 day cut-off. |
I think that’s rather over egging things. It’s not as if they don’t publish other stats. The number of deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate appears immediately below the 28 day figure on the deaths page of the Coronavirus in the UK website
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths |  | | |
| Comparative death rates on 20:42 - Nov 11 with 415 views | gordon |
| Comparative death rates on 20:29 - Nov 11 by longtimefan |
I think that’s rather over egging things. It’s not as if they don’t publish other stats. The number of deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate appears immediately below the 28 day figure on the deaths page of the Coronavirus in the UK website
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths |
At the time the 28-day cut-off was introduced towards the end of the first wave, this reduced the daily death toll by 40-50 per day, but the number of deaths in that 40-50 that would have been expected in the absence of covid would have been a small fraction of that, something like 2 - 3based on mortality data.
But Heneghan didn't mention that when he made his 'people who get hit by a bus are getting counted as covid deaths' argument. | | | |
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