| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running 17:57 - Nov 4 with 2190 views | GlasgowBlue |
The first two weeks were put down to the schools being off, but they've been back 4 days and 88K (10.4%) more tests were processed than last Thursday. English patients in hospital have also dropped very slightly, although admissions remain high.
That's twice since June that we've hit the 50,000 a day mark yet seen cases drop off again.
Obviously the vaccine is working and the booster jabs are taking effect but is there another explanation for a constant fall in cases.
Up here we have been stubbornly stuck at around 2.5 - 3K cases a day since early September. No big spikes and no big drops.
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:09 - Nov 4 with 1774 views | Steve_M |
Vaccine rates have increased over the last month after a bit of a lull I think. Half term definitely helped slow things, still a question if next week's numbers are continuing the trend too I suppose. |  |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:11 - Nov 4 with 1766 views | positivity |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:09 - Nov 4 by Steve_M |
Vaccine rates have increased over the last month after a bit of a lull I think. Half term definitely helped slow things, still a question if next week's numbers are continuing the trend too I suppose. |
12-15 vaccines helping too, would like to see hospital admissions falling significantly and consistently before we can think of letting down our guard |  |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:16 - Nov 4 with 1737 views | StokieBlue |
The government dashboard says nearly 38000 cases today and 214 deaths.
Edit: I see your data was for England specifically. If we do look at the UK as a whole though we are running at >700 deaths for the last 3 days.
SB [Post edited 4 Nov 2021 18:20]
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:21 - Nov 4 with 1693 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:11 - Nov 4 by positivity |
12-15 vaccines helping too, would like to see hospital admissions falling significantly and consistently before we can think of letting down our guard |
Is there a good take up of the vaccine for 12-15 year olds down south?
Anecdotal evidence suggests it's been very poor up here. | |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:30 - Nov 4 with 1650 views | lowhouseblue |
local to me the number in hospital has risen markedly in the last week. very worryingly the proportion of those in hospital who have been double jabbed has also risen. public health interpret this as evidence that the full strength of the vaccine is wearing off. the very clear message is: when you get summoned GET YOUR BOOSTER JAB. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:34 - Nov 4 with 1633 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:30 - Nov 4 by lowhouseblue |
local to me the number in hospital has risen markedly in the last week. very worryingly the proportion of those in hospital who have been double jabbed has also risen. public health interpret this as evidence that the full strength of the vaccine is wearing off. the very clear message is: when you get summoned GET YOUR BOOSTER JAB. |
There was a study out last week which looked at transmission from vaccinated people. Basically the conclusion was that being vaccinated didn't hugely reduce your infectiousness and thus herd immunity may be impossible.
As part of that study and more relevant to your post, there were indications that immunity started waning 3 months after your second jab and thus as you say, boosters are vital.
Going to be a lot of people not getting boosters for quite some time after their second dose though.
SB | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:38 - Nov 4 with 1600 views | DinDjarin |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:21 - Nov 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Is there a good take up of the vaccine for 12-15 year olds down south?
Anecdotal evidence suggests it's been very poor up here. |
On the radio yesterday said it was about 15% uptake |  | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:39 - Nov 4 with 1598 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:38 - Nov 4 by DinDjarin |
On the radio yesterday said it was about 15% uptake |
It's been very low. A lot if misinformation on social networks like Tik Tok apparently as well as anti-vaxxers outside schools (and actually breaking into schools in some cases).
SB | | | |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:44 - Nov 4 with 1574 views | WD19 |
Cool your jets. The various population surveillance studies running are seeing some of the highest levels of prevalence experienced since the start of the pandemic.
And staff in the DoH have cancelled their Christmas….. |  | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:49 - Nov 4 with 1528 views | Digger77 |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:38 - Nov 4 by DinDjarin |
On the radio yesterday said it was about 15% uptake |
Sound about right. Very low. Will be even lower if they start offering it to under 12s I'd imagine. | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:51 - Nov 4 with 1513 views | StokieBlue |
The pill is not designed to replace the vaccinations, it's a supplementary treatment which can help in some cases, especially where there is a significant risk factor. We don't have that much of it either.
Vaccines are still the first port of call for covid protection.
SB | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:54 - Nov 4 with 1491 views | DinDjarin |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:51 - Nov 4 by StokieBlue |
The pill is not designed to replace the vaccinations, it's a supplementary treatment which can help in some cases, especially where there is a significant risk factor. We don't have that much of it either.
Vaccines are still the first port of call for covid protection.
SB |
Same company that produces ivermectin.
Should get the nutjobs working overtime. | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 19:10 - Nov 4 with 1447 views | BlueBadger |
Personal plea (COVID) by BlueBadger 4 Nov 2021 11:38Still a good idea to wear a mask and get a jab though PTA. Prevention is always better than cure.
Plus, antivirals are notoriously expensive and side effect-y.
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 19:56 - Nov 4 with 1333 views | positivity |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:21 - Nov 4 by GlasgowBlue |
Is there a good take up of the vaccine for 12-15 year olds down south?
Anecdotal evidence suggests it's been very poor up here. |
anecdotally it's good at our kid's school, but it's quite an educated area, so maybe not as susceptible to the internet trolls?
no idea about the country as a whole, but even a low take-up is better than none i guess | |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 07:30 - Nov 5 with 1138 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 18:44 - Nov 4 by WD19 |
Cool your jets. The various population surveillance studies running are seeing some of the highest levels of prevalence experienced since the start of the pandemic.
And staff in the DoH have cancelled their Christmas….. |
Although a study reported in the Guardian yesterday suggests cases have peaked for this year.
I hope this is correct.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/covid-study-points-to-uk-infection | |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 08:51 - Nov 5 with 1041 views | StokieBlue |
That would be excellent news and I certainly hope it is correct but it's worth noting that the final two paragraphs in the article are saying it's far too early to draw any conclusions.
It seems likely many school children have some immunity from getting the virus now, although some other worrying studies are saying this might wane after only 3 months. Once again more data is needed for that conclusion.
Let's hope we've reached the peak this year and we don't get a really cold winter driving everyone indoors. Can't see many people taking the advice given today of opening their windows for 10 minutes every hour if it's -5C outside.
SB | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:04 - Nov 5 with 995 views | Swansea_Blue |
Nice if true, although it doesn't feel like it as we've as many people off in our kids classes at the moment as there ever has been. Hospitalisations still going up too. |  |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:32 - Nov 5 with 947 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:04 - Nov 5 by Swansea_Blue |
Nice if true, although it doesn't feel like it as we've as many people off in our kids classes at the moment as there ever has been. Hospitalisations still going up too. |
Cases are rising in the older cohorts (as per the article). They were vaccinated the longest ago and thus their immunity might be waning.
It's absolutely vital the message is clearly communicated that those who are eligible for a booster must get a booster.
We also have another variant of delta now which is gaining traction in the UK and will likely be the dominant variant by January.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/covid-delta-variant-uk-cases-b1949951
This highlights why it's not a good idea to let the cases run riot as it just gives the virus more chance to stumble across a beneficial mutation. Looks like we might have gotten lucky with this one, it's about 10% more infectious than Delta but doesn't seem to have any other special features. That will mean it will be dominant but could somewhat protect against worse strains that are more virulent or evade vaccines.
SB | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:47 - Nov 5 with 919 views | Digger77 |
Excellent news. Along with the new treatment now approved in the UK (same manufacturer as Ivermectin), it feels like we're getting there.
By spring time the virus could resemble common cold, due to how viruses tend to get weaker.
Game on! | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:52 - Nov 5 with 890 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:47 - Nov 5 by Digger77 |
Excellent news. Along with the new treatment now approved in the UK (same manufacturer as Ivermectin), it feels like we're getting there.
By spring time the virus could resemble common cold, due to how viruses tend to get weaker.
Game on! |
Why do you persist on pushing things which have been debated and are far from certain outcomes? At least you put "could" this time but your evidence based on 2 scientists outside the mainstream opinion was very, very far from conclusive.
Other posters pointed out many viruses which haven't gotten weaker over time.
It's fine to be optimistic, it's not fine to continually post things that are far from certain as truths. The latest variant of delta is no weaker but is more contagious and is taking over as the dominant strain. It's is extremely unlikely a new variant which is more contagious than that one but simultaneously as weak as the common cold is going to arise and take over in the time scales you are pushing.
We need to be realistic about the situation.
SB [Post edited 5 Nov 2021 9:52]
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 10:02 - Nov 5 with 846 views | Digger77 |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 09:52 - Nov 5 by StokieBlue |
Why do you persist on pushing things which have been debated and are far from certain outcomes? At least you put "could" this time but your evidence based on 2 scientists outside the mainstream opinion was very, very far from conclusive.
Other posters pointed out many viruses which haven't gotten weaker over time.
It's fine to be optimistic, it's not fine to continually post things that are far from certain as truths. The latest variant of delta is no weaker but is more contagious and is taking over as the dominant strain. It's is extremely unlikely a new variant which is more contagious than that one but simultaneously as weak as the common cold is going to arise and take over in the time scales you are pushing.
We need to be realistic about the situation.
SB [Post edited 5 Nov 2021 9:52]
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Perhaps you should take it up with the experts...
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-will-end-up-resembling-common-cold-by-spring-ne
Molnupiravir is thought to be effective against variants too. More so than the jabs. | | | |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 10:12 - Nov 5 with 804 views | StokieBlue |
We've had this debate and myself and a number of other posters highlighted that you're citing two people out of the entire scientific community who have said this on TV. It's cherry picking which is unfortunately what you do with regards to everything about covid and to be honest I am pretty sick of it:
"natural immunity is better than vaccine immunity" - Incorrect.
"covid WILL become like the common cold by spring" - Incorrect.
"ivermectin is not a random treatment" - Incorrect.
"masks don't work" - Incorrect.
"no benefit in children getting the jab" - Incorrect.
Molnupiravir is a good extra treatment I agree, however it is not designed as a replacement for the vaccines. We have small quantities and it's expected to be given to certain cohorts of patients who have specific high risks.
Please post a scientific paper that Molnupiravir is more effective against the variants than the vaccines.
I think you should spend some time reading up on viruses and how they spread. It's incredibly unlikely we are going to get any variant which will outcompete the delta-plus (AY.4.2) in the time frames you are stating. It's taken 8+ months to get a variant of delta which is more transmissible that delta and you're expecting to get a new variant which is more transmissible than that but like the common cold in less than 6 months.
It's incredibly improbable.
SB [Post edited 5 Nov 2021 10:12]
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 12:11 - Nov 5 with 707 views | Steve_M |
Interesting Twitter thread here, waning immunity after two injections is definitely a thing with nasty consequences:
Things would be far worse without the vaccines but it also demonstrates that covid can not just be put behind us because people are bored of it. | |
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| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 12:19 - Nov 5 with 691 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid cases in England falling for the 3rd week running on 12:11 - Nov 5 by Steve_M |
Interesting Twitter thread here, waning immunity after two injections is definitely a thing with nasty consequences:
Things would be far worse without the vaccines but it also demonstrates that covid can not just be put behind us because people are bored of it. |
This seems to backup the study released a few days ago about internal transmission which stated they saw a wane in immunity from 3 months after the second jab.
I think a lot of us are quite a way past that point but aren't on the list for boosters so I'd like masks back now please Boris.
SB | | | |
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