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Relegation maths 11:23 - Apr 12 with 3863 viewsPhilTWTD

Just doing the preview, maths-wise, the relegation picture is thus, is it not?

Town, 14 points from safety with only five to play, have to beat Birmingham in order to put off the inevitable until Good Friday when they face Preston at Deepdale, but even then they require results elsewhere to go in their favour.

The Blues would effectively be relegated if one of Wigan, Reading or Millwall pick up a point this weekend given the situation regarding goal difference. If those sides win, then Town are down mathematically.

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Relegation maths on 11:25 - Apr 12 with 2733 viewsPaul_Knows

Happy Friday. Thanks Phil!

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Relegation maths on 11:25 - Apr 12 with 2729 viewsCheltenham_Blue

Thats what I've worked out too.

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Relegation maths on 11:27 - Apr 12 with 2716 viewsITFC_Forever

For mathematical certainty... We MUST beat Brum tomorrow, and hope that Millwall, Wigan and Reading don't all win to take the maths to PNE on Good Friday.

A point for each of them (and us winning) leaves us needing whichever of them drops points to lose every game, us win every game ans a pretty unlikely Goal Difference swing.

So yes, what you said, although they all need to win tomorrow.... if one of them loses all bar one of their games and draws the other, we win all ours, and we claw back the GD, then we stay up.
[Post edited 12 Apr 2019 11:30]

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Relegation maths on 11:29 - Apr 12 with 2687 viewsNthsuffolkblue

IF we won, all 3 of those teams would need a point or more to put us down (or Rotherham to win if one didn't). In fact, as technically we could still make the same number of points, we would still not be mathematically down if any one of them didn't win.

The fact we won't win means the other results are irrelevant anyway. Would be nice if we just saw us play well and compete for the rest of the season.

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Relegation maths on 11:36 - Apr 12 with 2608 viewsCheltenham_Blue

Relegation maths on 11:29 - Apr 12 by Nthsuffolkblue

IF we won, all 3 of those teams would need a point or more to put us down (or Rotherham to win if one didn't). In fact, as technically we could still make the same number of points, we would still not be mathematically down if any one of them didn't win.

The fact we won't win means the other results are irrelevant anyway. Would be nice if we just saw us play well and compete for the rest of the season.


Effectively, anything other than a win tomorrow and we are down. Everyone we are chasing is on 41

A draw would put us on 28 points with 12 available = 40 points max

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Relegation maths on 11:41 - Apr 12 with 2577 viewsGuthrum

We have to beat Birmingham. But if one or more of the teams on 41 points loses and Rotherham do not win, then we will still be 11 points behind, plus GD, with 12 points to play for. So not quite mathematically down (we'd need to win all remaining fixtures and at least one of them lose all).

So all of Wigan, Reading and Millwall need to pick up at least a point to seal our fate - if we win.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Relegation maths on 11:43 - Apr 12 with 2542 viewsITFC_Forever

Relegation maths on 11:41 - Apr 12 by Guthrum

We have to beat Birmingham. But if one or more of the teams on 41 points loses and Rotherham do not win, then we will still be 11 points behind, plus GD, with 12 points to play for. So not quite mathematically down (we'd need to win all remaining fixtures and at least one of them lose all).

So all of Wigan, Reading and Millwall need to pick up at least a point to seal our fate - if we win.


If we win, all the teams on 41 have to win as well to make it mathematically certain.

I've had the Brum game down as the clincher for a while now....

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Relegation maths on 11:49 - Apr 12 with 2500 viewsGuthrum

Relegation maths on 11:43 - Apr 12 by ITFC_Forever

If we win, all the teams on 41 have to win as well to make it mathematically certain.

I've had the Brum game down as the clincher for a while now....


True, but it would require clawing back an 18 to 22 goal deficit over four matches. Which, given we'd have to win all four and them lose, is not impossible ...

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Relegation maths on 11:51 - Apr 12 with 2467 viewsITFC_Forever

Relegation maths on 11:49 - Apr 12 by Guthrum

True, but it would require clawing back an 18 to 22 goal deficit over four matches. Which, given we'd have to win all four and them lose, is not impossible ...


Indeed - every time we win and the other team lose, the GD changes from both ends... ours improves and their's worsens.

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Relegation maths on 11:54 - Apr 12 with 2442 viewsMullet

I do love the tradition of blokes getting TWTD to do their jobs for them, but this was thoroughly depressing Hambo.

Can you not have a news blackout until about June?

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Relegation maths on 12:00 - Apr 12 with 2385 viewspeterleeblue

Appreciate the consumer info Phil. But come on this is not something to revel in.
This is hugely depressing and sad that this great club is now essentially playing at this absolute crud level of football.
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Relegation maths on 12:17 - Apr 12 with 2292 viewsPhilTWTD

Relegation maths on 11:49 - Apr 12 by Guthrum

True, but it would require clawing back an 18 to 22 goal deficit over four matches. Which, given we'd have to win all four and them lose, is not impossible ...


That is a fair point, the unlikely event of us winning all matches and everyone else losing all matches makes the goal difference being overturned less unlikely! So, probably worth taking out my <i>effectively</i> relegated scenario given that. [Edit]Actually no need to mention Rotherham[/Edit].

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Relegation maths on 12:21 - Apr 12 with 2255 viewsitfcjoe

Not sure it's worth mentioning the goal difference - because for us to get out of it we'd have to win 4 and they lose 4 which would likely lead do a significant change in goal differences.

I'd stick to the points

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Relegation maths on 12:21 - Apr 12 with 2230 viewsGlasgowBlue

Relegation maths on 12:17 - Apr 12 by PhilTWTD

That is a fair point, the unlikely event of us winning all matches and everyone else losing all matches makes the goal difference being overturned less unlikely! So, probably worth taking out my <i>effectively</i> relegated scenario given that. [Edit]Actually no need to mention Rotherham[/Edit].

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Believe

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Relegation maths on 12:31 - Apr 12 with 2170 viewsPhilTWTD

Relegation maths on 12:21 - Apr 12 by itfcjoe

Not sure it's worth mentioning the goal difference - because for us to get out of it we'd have to win 4 and they lose 4 which would likely lead do a significant change in goal differences.

I'd stick to the points


Yes, think that's right as Guthrum pointed out. The 'effectively' relegated scenario muddies the waters too much anyway I think, particularly as we're already in an 'effectively' position anyway.

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Relegation maths on 12:37 - Apr 12 with 2124 viewsPhilTWTD

Relegation maths on 12:31 - Apr 12 by PhilTWTD

Yes, think that's right as Guthrum pointed out. The 'effectively' relegated scenario muddies the waters too much anyway I think, particularly as we're already in an 'effectively' position anyway.

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So, am I right in putting this as the final version taking 'effectively' scenarios relating to goal difference out of it?

Town, 14 points from safety with only five to play, have to beat the Midlanders in order to put off the inevitable until Good Friday when they face Preston at Deepdale, but even then they require results elsewhere to go in their favour.

Even if they pick up all three points against Birmingham, the Blues will still be mathematically confirmed in League One if all three of Wigan, Reading and Millwall win.
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Relegation maths on 12:38 - Apr 12 with 2112 viewsPhilTWTD

Relegation maths on 12:00 - Apr 12 by peterleeblue

Appreciate the consumer info Phil. But come on this is not something to revel in.
This is hugely depressing and sad that this great club is now essentially playing at this absolute crud level of football.


No one's revelling, just trying to be accurate in my match preview!
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Relegation maths on 12:39 - Apr 12 with 2102 viewsReuser_is_God

Relegation maths on 12:37 - Apr 12 by PhilTWTD

So, am I right in putting this as the final version taking 'effectively' scenarios relating to goal difference out of it?

Town, 14 points from safety with only five to play, have to beat the Midlanders in order to put off the inevitable until Good Friday when they face Preston at Deepdale, but even then they require results elsewhere to go in their favour.

Even if they pick up all three points against Birmingham, the Blues will still be mathematically confirmed in League One if all three of Wigan, Reading and Millwall win.


Yes.

You can also write your match report now if you'd like?

'Che Adams scored a 1st half brace to condemn the Blues to League 1 football next year. Town put up a good fight in the second half but, like in many other matches this season, were an absolute steaming pile of sh1t in both boxes'

Evans out
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Relegation maths on 12:42 - Apr 12 with 2071 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Relegation maths on 12:38 - Apr 12 by PhilTWTD

No one's revelling, just trying to be accurate in my match preview!


I think the fact is we are all but down regardless and have been for some time now.

We will be down if we fail to win. Winning would see us wait for the mathematical certainty to be confirmed unless Millwall, Reading and Wigan all win too.

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Relegation maths on 12:43 - Apr 12 with 2066 viewsPecker

I hate to be the barer of bad news, but even if we won all our remaining games, we are still down. Forget the maths, deal with reality.

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Relegation maths on 12:46 - Apr 12 with 2038 viewsfooters

Don't league tables have that little R next to the relegated teams any more? Beeb and Graun tables don't seem to. Was quite looking forward to seeing it, something different.

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Relegation maths on 12:47 - Apr 12 with 2040 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

Relegation maths on 12:39 - Apr 12 by Reuser_is_God

Yes.

You can also write your match report now if you'd like?

'Che Adams scored a 1st half brace to condemn the Blues to League 1 football next year. Town put up a good fight in the second half but, like in many other matches this season, were an absolute steaming pile of sh1t in both boxes'


LOL

The pre-match one too:
“Cole Skuse returns to the side as Town make 4 changes from the team that faced Brentford on Wednesday...”

Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
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Relegation maths on 12:48 - Apr 12 with 2028 viewsPJH

Relegation maths on 12:39 - Apr 12 by Reuser_is_God

Yes.

You can also write your match report now if you'd like?

'Che Adams scored a 1st half brace to condemn the Blues to League 1 football next year. Town put up a good fight in the second half but, like in many other matches this season, were an absolute steaming pile of sh1t in both boxes'


But none of that matters if our completed passes and possession stats are good.
Results are of absolutely no importance what we want is entertainment.
Being 29 points better off at this stage last season is irrelevant because the passing stats were not good.

Something like that anyway.
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Relegation maths on 12:48 - Apr 12 with 2025 viewsReuser_is_God

Relegation maths on 12:47 - Apr 12 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

LOL

The pre-match one too:
“Cole Skuse returns to the side as Town make 4 changes from the team that faced Brentford on Wednesday...”


Find someone that loves you like Healy loves Paul Lambert....

Evans out
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Relegation maths on 12:48 - Apr 12 with 2016 viewsReuser_is_God

Relegation maths on 12:48 - Apr 12 by PJH

But none of that matters if our completed passes and possession stats are good.
Results are of absolutely no importance what we want is entertainment.
Being 29 points better off at this stage last season is irrelevant because the passing stats were not good.

Something like that anyway.


Come on, no one has said that have they?

Evans out
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