| 49,000 odd cases today 17:07 - Oct 20 with 9788 views | giant_stow |
Its all going to sh1t again innit.
Great. |  |
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| We test much more than others. on 18:55 - Oct 20 with 1543 views | Trequartista |
| We test much more than others. on 18:26 - Oct 20 by StokieBlue |
The circumstances are different between now and the end of summer, there are more vaccinated people now including older children and there are more children off school now than there were at that time. Those two things alone cut down a significant vector of transmission.
Cases are higher now than on the 19th July (and trending upwards) although they were higher the few days before that, hospitalisations are up (and trending upwards) and deaths are running at ~250% the figure at that time. I'm not sure it's particularly relevant to cite that milestone date unless it's to propagate a narrative of some description.
To be honest, I'm not actually sure what point you are trying to make. It looks like muddying the waters with regards to the effectiveness of mask wearing but I am sure that can't be the case. Perhaps you would like to make your point in a clearer way so that I understand?
SB |
The reasons you give {school dates, number of people vaccinated} were known variables at the time, yet expert predictions of a rise towards 100,000-200,000 cases a day when restrictions were lifted were wrong in the opposite direction.
To be clear, i'm using that point in time to illustrate how we just don't know what is going on, and it is a futile exercise predicting what is going to happen next. Obviously mask-wearing doesn't make cases go up, obviously summer doesn't make cases go up, so there must be unknown factors here. |  |
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| We test much more than others. on 18:56 - Oct 20 with 1540 views | Trequartista |
| We test much more than others. on 18:47 - Oct 20 by ElderGrizzly |
The Russian vaccine is also less than reliable. |
Correct, and still not the point i was making. | |
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| We test much more than others. on 18:58 - Oct 20 with 1539 views | chicoazul |
| We test much more than others. on 18:26 - Oct 20 by StokieBlue |
The circumstances are different between now and the end of summer, there are more vaccinated people now including older children and there are more children off school now than there were at that time. Those two things alone cut down a significant vector of transmission.
Cases are higher now than on the 19th July (and trending upwards) although they were higher the few days before that, hospitalisations are up (and trending upwards) and deaths are running at ~250% the figure at that time. I'm not sure it's particularly relevant to cite that milestone date unless it's to propagate a narrative of some description.
To be honest, I'm not actually sure what point you are trying to make. It looks like muddying the waters with regards to the effectiveness of mask wearing but I am sure that can't be the case. Perhaps you would like to make your point in a clearer way so that I understand?
SB |
You think everyone who makes oblique points or more simply refers to published facts is possessing an “agenda” or pushing a narrative of some kind. Guess what? Some people think differently from you. It’s usually that simple. [Post edited 20 Oct 2021 18:58]
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| We test much more than others. on 18:59 - Oct 20 with 1534 views | ElderGrizzly |
| We test much more than others. on 18:48 - Oct 20 by Pinewoodblue |
Thought it was a clone of the AZ vaccine. |
No. It was apparently developed in May 2020, which is rather quick and months ahead of AZ.
Lots of stories of suspect trials and it struggled early on to get approval outside Russia. UAE was a heavy user of it and Sinovac (China) initially.
And Russian one still doesn’t have WHO approval and has been banned by South Africa over fears it could increase HIV transmission |  | | |
| We test much more than others. on 19:00 - Oct 20 with 1532 views | chicoazul |
| We test much more than others. on 18:55 - Oct 20 by Trequartista |
The reasons you give {school dates, number of people vaccinated} were known variables at the time, yet expert predictions of a rise towards 100,000-200,000 cases a day when restrictions were lifted were wrong in the opposite direction.
To be clear, i'm using that point in time to illustrate how we just don't know what is going on, and it is a futile exercise predicting what is going to happen next. Obviously mask-wearing doesn't make cases go up, obviously summer doesn't make cases go up, so there must be unknown factors here. |
Nobody knows anything and all predictions are wrong. This whole situation is all far too big and complex for all the established models. | |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:05 - Oct 20 with 1511 views | positivity |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 18:52 - Oct 20 by chicoazul |
So so weird how people still think the chief solution to allnthis is “lock everything down” rather than pay people properly to stay home when they’re sick. |
that would help, but as people can get it and pass it on without being sick enough to decide to stay at home, it's only part of the solution |  |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:21 - Oct 20 with 1470 views | DanTheMan |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 17:57 - Oct 20 by bluelagos |
Why give these pillocks the publicity they desire? I don't see people sharing flat earthers latest attempts to convince us the earth is flat.
They love the publicity and "authenticity" a discussion around their nonsense, feeds their need to feel important.
I'd simply just ignore the bell ends rather than let it worry you.
(Not a dig btw - is very tempting to highlight how stupid they are but I really think they are best left off a thread discussing appropriate responses to the ongoing pandemic) |
I see this sentiment quite a lot, but these things spread regardless of whether people who oppose them share their videos.
Something like QAnon spread from some crazy people on 4chan all the way to being practically mainstream before most people had even cottoned on to what the hell they were talking about. |  |
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| We test much more than others. on 19:26 - Oct 20 with 1451 views | ZXBlue |
| We test much more than others. on 18:44 - Oct 20 by Pinewoodblue |
What an irresponsible attitude. You have a duty to report the result of a positive Covid test. |
To what end? To contribute to plainly skewed figures- when the hospitalisation and deaths are now what counts?
Having been through the rigmarole of pcrs- I received a "test unread please try again" and my son got a "you're clear go back to school.... Ooops , we got it all wrong, hope you didnt go back to school or spend time with your parents...." | | | |
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| We test much more than others. on 19:28 - Oct 20 with 1430 views | StokieBlue |
| We test much more than others. on 18:58 - Oct 20 by chicoazul |
You think everyone who makes oblique points or more simply refers to published facts is possessing an “agenda” or pushing a narrative of some kind. Guess what? Some people think differently from you. It’s usually that simple. [Post edited 20 Oct 2021 18:58]
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Given you don't make any decent points it's not something you'll need to worry about.
SB |  | | |
| We test much more than others. on 19:35 - Oct 20 with 1406 views | ZXBlue |
| We test much more than others. on 19:28 - Oct 20 by StokieBlue |
Given you don't make any decent points it's not something you'll need to worry about.
SB |
People make oblique points to hint at things without putting their heads above the parapet where they know they will be rightly shot down.
Its tiresome. | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:48 - Oct 20 with 1369 views | Steve_M |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 18:52 - Oct 20 by chicoazul |
So so weird how people still think the chief solution to allnthis is “lock everything down” rather than pay people properly to stay home when they’re sick. |
True. There are also measures far short if a lockdown - compulsory mask-wearing, speeding up the booster vaccines - that the government is reluctant to take or taking too late (again). |  |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:51 - Oct 20 with 1358 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:48 - Oct 20 by Steve_M |
True. There are also measures far short if a lockdown - compulsory mask-wearing, speeding up the booster vaccines - that the government is reluctant to take or taking too late (again). |
My Nana who is 87 is still waiting for her booster until Nov 6th.
There definitely isn't the urgency here, which i assume is to do with supply. They are only running booster clinics here 1 day a week, compared to 7 days on the initial rollout. | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 20:00 - Oct 20 with 1335 views | wkj |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:51 - Oct 20 by ElderGrizzly |
My Nana who is 87 is still waiting for her booster until Nov 6th.
There definitely isn't the urgency here, which i assume is to do with supply. They are only running booster clinics here 1 day a week, compared to 7 days on the initial rollout. |
It surely has to do with location - I know a fair few who have had 3rd jabs around my way so far. |  |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 20:06 - Oct 20 with 1325 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 20:00 - Oct 20 by wkj |
It surely has to do with location - I know a fair few who have had 3rd jabs around my way so far. |
It’s bizarre. We live 12 miles from her and both in East Cambs.
My wife who is clinically vulnerable (so Group 4) is getting hers on Saturday. My parents who are 20 years younger than my Nana (and live in same village) are 1 week before her.
I’m sure it’s just a cock up somewhere, but anyway | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 20:20 - Oct 20 with 1295 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 19:51 - Oct 20 by ElderGrizzly |
My Nana who is 87 is still waiting for her booster until Nov 6th.
There definitely isn't the urgency here, which i assume is to do with supply. They are only running booster clinics here 1 day a week, compared to 7 days on the initial rollout. |
I got pinged twice, once by GP ( NHS no reply) but before that by NHS (Vaccine). GP was offering booster on Saturdays only. NHS Vaccine gave over 12 locations in Ipswich but I choose to go to Colchester and book appointment for next day.
check out www. nhs.uk/book-covid -booster |  |
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| We test much more than others. on 22:50 - Oct 20 with 1183 views | StokieBlue |
| We test much more than others. on 18:55 - Oct 20 by Trequartista |
The reasons you give {school dates, number of people vaccinated} were known variables at the time, yet expert predictions of a rise towards 100,000-200,000 cases a day when restrictions were lifted were wrong in the opposite direction.
To be clear, i'm using that point in time to illustrate how we just don't know what is going on, and it is a futile exercise predicting what is going to happen next. Obviously mask-wearing doesn't make cases go up, obviously summer doesn't make cases go up, so there must be unknown factors here. |
Without wanting to be harsh or confrontational, I think there is some cherry-picking going on here.
"The reasons you give {school dates, number of people vaccinated} were known variables at the time"
This isn't really true. The decision to vaccinate in schools wasn't made until the middle of September and certainly wouldn't have been a variable input to the modelling in June/July.
"yet expert predictions of a rise towards 100,000-200,000 cases a day when restrictions were lifted were wrong in the opposite direction."
You've picked the outlying predictions there, why haven't you cited the median? The worst case scenario of the Imperial modelling was 115,000. In the end we were around the mid-level estimates or slightly below but that doesn't make the modelling useless. Extra factors which I cited wouldn't have been inputs. There is also the fact that people might just have behaved sensibly after seeing the upper limit predictions - we won't ever be able to prove that one way or the other.
"To be clear, i'm using that point in time to illustrate how we just don't know what is going on, and it is a futile exercise predicting what is going to happen next. "
This isn't really true though. The modelling is a variance across a number of scenarios, we know that if various trends are hit then we can extrapolate the likely outcome. To say modelling is futile would seem to be an overreaction. How do you propose to design and implement policy if you have no modelled scenarios to call upon?
What do you think should happen? We are struggling with the booster programme, people aren't wearing masks where they should do, winter is coming and without masks flu is going to spread (although for comparison it's still far less infectious than covid).
What's the solution? Citing modelling as "futile" would seem to indicate that we should do nothing as anything which is implemented would be a stab in the dark based on no empirical data and to me that would be worse than basing policy on modelled scenarios.
SB [Post edited 20 Oct 2021 22:51]
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 22:56 - Oct 20 with 1166 views | Swansea_Blue |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 17:16 - Oct 20 by Illinoisblue |
Fear not, the anti-Vax loons are out “serving” papers again and claiming it’s all a hoax, this time at Colchester hospital. I cannot stress enough how much I want to see these people bludgeoned with bats.
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Not nice to want to see them bludgeoned with bats. That sounds like a waste of good sporting equipment when a leaf filled pipe would do just as good a job! |  |
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| We test much more than others. on 23:06 - Oct 20 with 1139 views | Swansea_Blue |
| We test much more than others. on 19:00 - Oct 20 by chicoazul |
Nobody knows anything and all predictions are wrong. This whole situation is all far too big and complex for all the established models. |
You’ll be pleased to know that nobody (serious) is trying to predict anything. Scientists are used to working with probabilities and uncertainties in the same way we’re used to breathing. The media, politicians and public struggle to deal with such things though. | |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 23:24 - Oct 20 with 1104 views | ronnyd |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 22:56 - Oct 20 by Swansea_Blue |
Not nice to want to see them bludgeoned with bats. That sounds like a waste of good sporting equipment when a leaf filled pipe would do just as good a job! |
Don't think that a pipe filled with leaves is going to do much good Swanners. You could always use an actual lead one though.  | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 00:32 - Oct 21 with 1077 views | BasingstokeBlue |
I don’t see what use the “number of infections” metric is (apart from allowing certain rags to misinterpret it’s insignificance.)
The main metrics we should be trying to minimize are (i) Covid19-caused deaths and (b) Covid19-related hospital admissions, since they may overwhelm the NHS.
These two metrics have, on the whole, been quite stable recently.
The mass-jabbing programme has made sure that most people contracting (and testing positive for) SARS-Cov-2 infection will not suffer the terrible symptoms and side-effects of Covid19 and that few, if any, will die from it.
So, if neither the death-rate nor the hospitalisation-rate are rising significantly, I don’t think we’ve reached the Armageddon predicted by certain rags whose main agendae are to panic all the red-top readers. |  |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 01:30 - Oct 21 with 1061 views | ZXBlue |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 00:32 - Oct 21 by BasingstokeBlue |
I don’t see what use the “number of infections” metric is (apart from allowing certain rags to misinterpret it’s insignificance.)
The main metrics we should be trying to minimize are (i) Covid19-caused deaths and (b) Covid19-related hospital admissions, since they may overwhelm the NHS.
These two metrics have, on the whole, been quite stable recently.
The mass-jabbing programme has made sure that most people contracting (and testing positive for) SARS-Cov-2 infection will not suffer the terrible symptoms and side-effects of Covid19 and that few, if any, will die from it.
So, if neither the death-rate nor the hospitalisation-rate are rising significantly, I don’t think we’ve reached the Armageddon predicted by certain rags whose main agendae are to panic all the red-top readers. |
Have you looked at the current death rate at all? | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 04:43 - Oct 21 with 1035 views | Ryorry |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 00:32 - Oct 21 by BasingstokeBlue |
I don’t see what use the “number of infections” metric is (apart from allowing certain rags to misinterpret it’s insignificance.)
The main metrics we should be trying to minimize are (i) Covid19-caused deaths and (b) Covid19-related hospital admissions, since they may overwhelm the NHS.
These two metrics have, on the whole, been quite stable recently.
The mass-jabbing programme has made sure that most people contracting (and testing positive for) SARS-Cov-2 infection will not suffer the terrible symptoms and side-effects of Covid19 and that few, if any, will die from it.
So, if neither the death-rate nor the hospitalisation-rate are rising significantly, I don’t think we’ve reached the Armageddon predicted by certain rags whose main agendae are to panic all the red-top readers. |
"I don’t see what use the “number of infections” metric is (apart from allowing certain rags to misinterpret it’s insignificance.)"
I can assure you it's incredibly useful for people who are immunosuppressed, esp if they have chronic lung conditions & a low chance of survival if they catch Covid19, to know when to stop risking going into crowded public places. |  |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 07:55 - Oct 21 with 962 views | StokieBlue |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 18:12 - Oct 20 by longtimefan |
Indeed. You can also guarantee that there will be practically no one wearing a mask on the concourses at Portman Rd on Saturday, despite it being part of the entrance rules. It is really beginning to feel awkward being one of so few to still wear one. |
I'm sorry you've been made to feel that way. Nobody should be made to feel awkward for actually following the rules and doing what's right for their fellow supporters.
Hopefully a few will read what you've said and consider their behaviour for this Saturdays match.
SB | | | |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 07:58 - Oct 21 with 952 views | Steve_M |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 00:32 - Oct 21 by BasingstokeBlue |
I don’t see what use the “number of infections” metric is (apart from allowing certain rags to misinterpret it’s insignificance.)
The main metrics we should be trying to minimize are (i) Covid19-caused deaths and (b) Covid19-related hospital admissions, since they may overwhelm the NHS.
These two metrics have, on the whole, been quite stable recently.
The mass-jabbing programme has made sure that most people contracting (and testing positive for) SARS-Cov-2 infection will not suffer the terrible symptoms and side-effects of Covid19 and that few, if any, will die from it.
So, if neither the death-rate nor the hospitalisation-rate are rising significantly, I don’t think we’ve reached the Armageddon predicted by certain rags whose main agendae are to panic all the red-top readers. |
The number of infections is relevant because hospitalisations and deaths follow the number of cases; vaccination does mean that a smaller percentage of those infected will be severely so but a small percentage of a large number of cases remains significant. | |
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| 49,000 odd cases today on 08:15 - Oct 21 with 926 views | positivity |
| 49,000 odd cases today on 22:56 - Oct 20 by Swansea_Blue |
Not nice to want to see them bludgeoned with bats. That sounds like a waste of good sporting equipment when a leaf filled pipe would do just as good a job! |
i was thinking along the lines of animal cruelty myself, the bats have suffered enough during this pandemic | |
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