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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) 21:57 - Oct 13 with 4639 viewsHARRY10

After 42 Tories rebelled over lock down in Parliament tonight, some may be wondering if this is now the way forward -

"An international group of scientists has called on governments to overturn their coronavirus strategies and allow young and healthy people to return to normal life while protecting the most vulnerable.

The proposal, drawn up by three researchers but signed by many more, argues for letting the virus spread in low-risk groups in the hope of achieving “herd immunity”, where enough of the population is resistant to the virus to quell the pandemic.


" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/scientists-call-for-herd-immunity-




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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 00:54 - Oct 14 with 1055 viewsHARRY10

"To reiterate, the premise of Barrington (as I see it) is that the short-term benefits afforded from lockdowns/ social restrictions, are far outweighed by the medium/ long-term effects to society. I'm personally in agreement with that. "

What do you think the medium effects to society would be were hospitals to be overwhelmed with covid cases requiring intensive treatment, just as they are facing 'winter pressure; - old people being admitted with flu. This is while a back log of operations has yet to be cleared, and will undoubtedly increase further due to the two types of admissions.

It is all very well to talk in 'Cummings speak; where people are simply reduced to numbers, where the consequences are not hospitals without the capacity in both beds and staff to cope, but this is not some abstract exercise.

It becomes some sort of Dr Mengele arrangement, where the daily choice is who is treated and who is not - who is left to die and who survives.

Unscrewing the cap off a boiling car radiator might be one way of dealing with it. Most would think that gradually easing the pressure is a far better way for both the short and long term.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 00:59 - Oct 14 with 1048 viewsJ2BLUE

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 00:49 - Oct 14 by vapour_trail

I don’t know where you boys see all this stuff. There certainly seems to be a weight of evidence but I’ve not encountered any of it. I must be spending too much time at home.


I'm pretty obsessed with anything coronavirus. I read a lot of news. Also family/friends etc.

One helpful thing i've read a lot about lately is vitamin D. The evidence is stacking up that it can be a real help. I say 'evidence'. It's all anecdotal so can't say for sure it helps but there's a lot of correlation stuff which suggests it can help. Not that it proves causation etc etc, all standard disclaimers apply and it's obviously a tool in the box alongside masks, space, hands, distancing etc and not a silver bullet.

Sorry Vapours. Not saying all that for your benefit but I know how this site works! Someone will claim i'm suggesting it's a miracle cure.

Truly impaired.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 02:06 - Oct 14 with 1038 viewsmonytowbray

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 22:00 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/09/climate-science-denial-network-behind-great-b


Anyone who shares BT links knows the truths of the world IMO.

Fantastic news site.

Also, weird as I hit reply this then popped up in my Twitter feed.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/13/koch-funded-pr-agency-aided-great-barrington-

Who needs conspiracies about secret rich global elites ruling our society when you can see the reality so clearly out in the open if you choose to pay attention?
[Post edited 14 Oct 2020 2:08]

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 02:46 - Oct 14 with 1020 viewsjeera

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 00:59 - Oct 14 by J2BLUE

I'm pretty obsessed with anything coronavirus. I read a lot of news. Also family/friends etc.

One helpful thing i've read a lot about lately is vitamin D. The evidence is stacking up that it can be a real help. I say 'evidence'. It's all anecdotal so can't say for sure it helps but there's a lot of correlation stuff which suggests it can help. Not that it proves causation etc etc, all standard disclaimers apply and it's obviously a tool in the box alongside masks, space, hands, distancing etc and not a silver bullet.

Sorry Vapours. Not saying all that for your benefit but I know how this site works! Someone will claim i'm suggesting it's a miracle cure.


I can't believe you're trying to suggest this is some miracle cure.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 03:28 - Oct 14 with 1010 viewsjeera

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 22:00 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/10/09/climate-science-denial-network-behind-great-b


Fair bit of context on those pages.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 05:27 - Oct 14 with 991 viewsOldsmoker

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 02:46 - Oct 14 by jeera

I can't believe you're trying to suggest this is some miracle cure.


And that someone was you!
Go to bed.

Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 05:33 - Oct 14 with 989 viewsjeera

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 05:27 - Oct 14 by Oldsmoker

And that someone was you!
Go to bed.


Of course it was me.

I couldn't read that and ignore it.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 05:52 - Oct 14 with 981 viewsOldsmoker

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 05:33 - Oct 14 by jeera

Of course it was me.

I couldn't read that and ignore it.


I get your dark humour.
There's a lot on here who need a whoosh or at least stop being so sensitive.

Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:12 - Oct 14 with 937 viewsurbanblue

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 00:59 - Oct 14 by J2BLUE

I'm pretty obsessed with anything coronavirus. I read a lot of news. Also family/friends etc.

One helpful thing i've read a lot about lately is vitamin D. The evidence is stacking up that it can be a real help. I say 'evidence'. It's all anecdotal so can't say for sure it helps but there's a lot of correlation stuff which suggests it can help. Not that it proves causation etc etc, all standard disclaimers apply and it's obviously a tool in the box alongside masks, space, hands, distancing etc and not a silver bullet.

Sorry Vapours. Not saying all that for your benefit but I know how this site works! Someone will claim i'm suggesting it's a miracle cure.


Well, you may be interested if you haven't read this. Not anecdotal, but peer reviewed study on the effect Calcifedial (Vitamin D) on patients in ICU. A small sample I know, but encouraging I would say.

https://covid.us.org/2020/09/03/new-study-vitamin-d-reduces-risk-of-icu-admissio

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:52 - Oct 14 with 931 viewsGuthrum

People get hot under the collar at suggestions we should lock up people who do have Covid for a couple of weeks. Surprised there is not more outrage at the idea of effectively forcible isolation of swathes of the population who do not (the elderly, the vulnerable and those with pre-existing conditions) - on an indefinite basis.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:56 - Oct 14 with 914 viewsMonkeyAlan

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 22:38 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose

Sadly, Britain seems to have stopped responding to everything and anything in a remotely smart fashion.


Bit like the country you live in then.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:56 - Oct 14 with 924 viewsGuthrum

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 23:47 - Oct 13 by HARRY10

The problem with the BD is that it drifts into the cummings world of isolated numbers.

Which is however worthy the 'herd immunity' theory is, the UK does not have the facilities to cope with iris hospital critical care,

As we can only guess at who is likely to be vulnerable we will have a huge number who will undoubtedly become infected and require hospital treatment.

Given that we are heading for maxim capacity already, there can be no valid argument for greatly increasing the probability of speeding to that point of maximum capacity quicker for some, as yet, unproven argument.


We still don't know how, or to what extent immunity works, or for how long. Let alone the "herd" variety.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:22 - Oct 14 with 910 viewshype313

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:56 - Oct 14 by Guthrum

We still don't know how, or to what extent immunity works, or for how long. Let alone the "herd" variety.


A guy in America got Covid twice, second time around was worse than the first, so this notion of "Herd Immunity" seems to be wibble. Trouble is, if that's the case then so is a Vaccine...

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:29 - Oct 14 with 903 viewsjeera

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:22 - Oct 14 by hype313

A guy in America got Covid twice, second time around was worse than the first, so this notion of "Herd Immunity" seems to be wibble. Trouble is, if that's the case then so is a Vaccine...


Vaccines don't work in the same way.

They are engineered to be a longer term solution.

Edit: Agree with the talk about 'herd' immunity.

There's still no proof that immunity even exists as a realistic measure, let alone enough evidence to promote it as a solution.
[Post edited 14 Oct 2020 9:39]

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:43 - Oct 14 with 898 viewsStokieBlue

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:22 - Oct 14 by hype313

A guy in America got Covid twice, second time around was worse than the first, so this notion of "Herd Immunity" seems to be wibble. Trouble is, if that's the case then so is a Vaccine...


It doesn't really work that way, if required you can get a vaccine booster each year (which is what is being discussed, perhaps even twice a year).

Other vaccines last a lifetime (or certainly a long time) it depends on the disease.

SB

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:45 - Oct 14 with 892 viewsStokieBlue

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 22:37 - Oct 13 by SpruceMoose

You mean to say Dr Jonny Bananas isn't an esteemed epidemiologist?!


This thread is actually an interesting insight into the debate that is going on at a larger scale across the world.

There are two very distinct views and people base their arguments around them. You can see this being played out in the upvotes for my post and Funges post. Interestingly the gap between support for the positions seems to be shrinking - I think it would have been higher 3 months ago.

SB

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:47 - Oct 14 with 889 viewsjeera

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:45 - Oct 14 by StokieBlue

This thread is actually an interesting insight into the debate that is going on at a larger scale across the world.

There are two very distinct views and people base their arguments around them. You can see this being played out in the upvotes for my post and Funges post. Interestingly the gap between support for the positions seems to be shrinking - I think it would have been higher 3 months ago.

SB


As soon as I see TV 'celebrity' doctors leaning one way, I start to consider some alarm bells ringing.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 10:04 - Oct 14 with 880 viewsBlueBadger

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 22:13 - Oct 13 by BlueBadger

In short, no, it's not. Young people 'going back to their normal lives' is, at least in part, what's fuelling the current upsurge in cases and hospital admission.


So the numbers are significantly up and increasing. by BlueBadger 12 Oct 2020 20:34
The issue is shielding the vulnerable.
The problem is basically twofold -

1 - How do we achieve that? Many vulnerable people live in care homes, many more live at home with visiting or live-in carers, be they family or paid carers. All of them will have extended families who will be working and mingling with the general public. Paid mobile carers in particular, are a massive potential vector for infection.

2 - How do we identify who needs shielding? By May 2020 some 2.2 million people were identified in May as 'extremely vulnerable' and were advised to take maximal shielding precautions. What do we do with those who are vulnerable but not in the extreme category? What are the criteria?
On top of that, you've always got an uncertain number of people with current dormant underlying conditions that would be likely triggered and exacerbated by a dose of covid-19.

On top of that, we've seen that 'long covid' happens in as many as 12% of symptomatic cases in the community(and the incidence appears higher in the hospitalised cohort) may be at risk of prolonged symptoms, of, at best, indeterminate length, plus we don't know how long immunity, in the form of antibodies lasts and evidence is emerging that you can be re-infected. In view of the above, attempting herd immunity by 'letting rip' is somewhat ethically problematic, to say the least.



It's deeply, deeply flawed science and frankly, somewhat unethical to try it,
[Post edited 13 Oct 2020 22:17]


I'd be interested to know what Bluebudgie's objections to this are.

Particularly given he probably falls under the 'vulnerable' category.

Artificial grass by bluebudgie 11 Sep 2020 17:45
Im in my 60s and I am disabled and have artificial grass as I cant mow regular grass. My grass looks lovely and its not an"abomination" Its not cheap though but as I said looks very nice and i have had plenty of admirers since having it laid and the grandkids love playing on it.My advice if you have not been put off by previous posts is to not buy cheap and have it laid by a profesional.

[Post edited 14 Oct 2020 11:33]

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 10:07 - Oct 14 with 874 viewsBlueBadger

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 08:52 - Oct 14 by Guthrum

People get hot under the collar at suggestions we should lock up people who do have Covid for a couple of weeks. Surprised there is not more outrage at the idea of effectively forcible isolation of swathes of the population who do not (the elderly, the vulnerable and those with pre-existing conditions) - on an indefinite basis.


Right wing nutters are more than happy to lock up(or worse) people who are not economically useful.

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 10:13 - Oct 14 with 868 viewsKeno

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 10:07 - Oct 14 by BlueBadger

Right wing nutters are more than happy to lock up(or worse) people who are not economically useful.


whilst strangely a lot of right wing nutter are less than economically useful themselves

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 10:19 - Oct 14 with 868 viewsghostofescobar

Load of tosh, as largely explained here: https://theconversation.com/can-we-actually-learn-to-live-with-coronavirus-not-u

GhostOfEscobar

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 11:31 - Oct 14 with 843 viewsGuthrum

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:22 - Oct 14 by hype313

A guy in America got Covid twice, second time around was worse than the first, so this notion of "Herd Immunity" seems to be wibble. Trouble is, if that's the case then so is a Vaccine...


Further to what Jeera and Stokie have said, vaccines are measured and calibrated to produce a known response. Sure that will vary a bit from person to person, but without the random factor of how severely you may have been naturally infected (exposure level has been shown to contribute to severity) - not to mention the potential unpleasantness of actually suffering the disease*.


* Indeed, the cytokine storm and kawasaki-like syndrome, both related to the immune system going into overdrive and unable to shut down, have been lethality factors amongst those with Covid, particularly the younger ones.

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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 12:03 - Oct 14 with 829 viewsurbanblue

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 09:45 - Oct 14 by StokieBlue

This thread is actually an interesting insight into the debate that is going on at a larger scale across the world.

There are two very distinct views and people base their arguments around them. You can see this being played out in the upvotes for my post and Funges post. Interestingly the gap between support for the positions seems to be shrinking - I think it would have been higher 3 months ago.

SB


I disagree with this and don't think there are two distinct views at all in the two posts by both you and Funge.

Funge's post was not an endorsement of the Barrington Declaration. My upvote was for the extremely salient points that Scientific hypothesis should be considered and that a debate should always be had about whether continual lockdowns are the answer bearing in mind the enormous costs to the financial, physical and mental health of a lot of the population. I would add the future welfare of our children to that.

I totally agree. That was why the post got my upvote. It really is not as simplistic as to whether one is pro or anti lockdown. Surely you would agree with that.
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 12:19 - Oct 14 with 826 viewsHARRY10

"To reiterate, the premise of Barrington (as I see it) is that the short-term benefits afforded from lockdowns/ social restrictions, are far outweighed by the medium/ long-term effects to society. I'm personally in agreement with that. "

It should beggar belief that such nonsense is still being peddled.

The Uk is currently heading for hospitals being overwhelmed and unable to cope with infected people needing intensive care. To equate that with folk having to restrict their activities for a time borders on the dangerous.

Something has to be done now, to avoid that probability, as if that scenario is not avoided lord alone knows what panic and harm will be caused.

Lock down is about all we have to try and regulate the flow of patients requiring treatment. Because this is what it is really about - and the logistics and resources will determine what happens, not some theory distanced from any practicality
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the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 12:25 - Oct 14 with 826 viewsBlueBadger

the Great Barrington declaration (covid19) on 12:19 - Oct 14 by HARRY10

"To reiterate, the premise of Barrington (as I see it) is that the short-term benefits afforded from lockdowns/ social restrictions, are far outweighed by the medium/ long-term effects to society. I'm personally in agreement with that. "

It should beggar belief that such nonsense is still being peddled.

The Uk is currently heading for hospitals being overwhelmed and unable to cope with infected people needing intensive care. To equate that with folk having to restrict their activities for a time borders on the dangerous.

Something has to be done now, to avoid that probability, as if that scenario is not avoided lord alone knows what panic and harm will be caused.

Lock down is about all we have to try and regulate the flow of patients requiring treatment. Because this is what it is really about - and the logistics and resources will determine what happens, not some theory distanced from any practicality


It should be pointed out that in the US, the concept of 'ceilings of treatment' is nowhere near as strong as it is in the UK.

So, it quite follows that very frail, very elderly(or both) people are admitted to ITU and subjected to treatments such as ventilation, invasive monitoring, etc etc, with a a very low chance of success, mainly because they(or their insurers) can pay rather than it being genuinely in their best interests.

I suspect it would have needed a pretty big 'sell', for example to get an obese 74 year old with a likely cognitive decline and recent stroke into an NHS ITU, compared to in the states.

I'm one of the people who was blamed for getting Paul Cook sacked. PM for the full post.
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