| Poland hit by missile... 19:16 - Nov 15 with 9754 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
...and Moldova suffering power outages. Surely a good enough reason to massively increase air defense system supplies to Ukraine?
Edit....removed 'Russian' from title.
There is still enough reason to supply better air defence systems. [Post edited 16 Nov 2022 7:17]
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 22:07 - Nov 15 with 2890 views | HARRY10 |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 21:28 - Nov 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
For all the threat that major stockpiling of nuclear weapons has, conflict between Russia and the West has always been fought by each side arming different sides in other conflicts. However, Russia is the actual army here rather than them arming a different one. The impact on their power is much greater than previous conflicts.
Is it almost getting to the point where Putin either has to admit some form of defeat or bring about the major escalation the West is refusing to give him? |
The problem for Russia is time is running out - or more importantly the ability to make good losses is.
It does not have the capacity to match the West in production, and so in a war of attrition it will lose. Even a nuclear strike is a step into the unknown as it cannot be certain that the West does not have the capability of destroying any nuclear missiles launched. Until that possibility is tested then Russia still carries a threat, of some kind.
What we are now seeing is outdated cold war stuff being dragged out which are about as useful as a 1915 bi-plane in the age of the jet fighter. They can be destroyed from miles away without any idea what hit them, or that they have been hit....crew dead, tank destroyed.
The Russians now have a natural barrier, the Dniper river, which should act to keep both sides apart for the winter, but what then as far as the Russians are concerned ? Continue to lob missiles into Ukraine, in the vague hope Ukraine will capitulate ?
De Gaulle said 'no nation has friends, only interests'
It will benefit China and India to have a weakened Russia. And Russia will have to retain a strong enough force to ensure internal control, which I suspect is now running close to that need |  | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 22:21 - Nov 15 with 2844 views | Guthrum |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 21:55 - Nov 15 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Does that leave Putin with the only option to admit some form of defeat? How does he save any face in this?
Or have I missed something? |
He still thinks he can win. It's an article of faith with Russian ultra-nationalists that their populace can out-suffer anyone else (and are happy to do so)*. The soft Westerners will fold when the cold weather hits. He just has to keep going.
* Something which goes back to Tsarist times. |  |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:00 - Nov 15 with 2749 views | HARRY10 |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 21:44 - Nov 15 by Guthrum |
Putin doesn't have a lot of options for escalation.
He's already used up a lot of his best ground units and stocks of missiles. The Black Sea Fleet is also badly dented. Widening the war just invites further military pressure. Involving NATO would mean almost certain defeat and run the risk of nuclear annihilation if things get out of control. |
'Involving Nato'
They've been involved for some while. Way before the actual invasion started. From training Ukraine soldiers on how to use western weaponry, to supplying huge amounts of ordnance.
What is facing Putin is the shadow of 1990. If regions far from Moscow declare independence it will trigger a domino effect. It is not 80 years ago. People have the internet and are far better informed now. They can see this is nothing more than a power grab to rally the faithful (useful idiots) and offer a distraction.
Russia has seen a massive asset stripping of its resources by the 'oligarchs' State owned enterprises and land were misappropriated (stolen) on a massive scale. But not as discreet as in the UK where those helping themselves had the good sense to let a few crumbs fall from the table, and also ensure the wealth was spread amongst a wider number.
The time of reckoning looks to be coming, and as already been seen those ill gotten gains can no longer be hidden in the west. | | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:11 - Nov 15 with 2726 views | Guthrum |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:00 - Nov 15 by HARRY10 |
'Involving Nato'
They've been involved for some while. Way before the actual invasion started. From training Ukraine soldiers on how to use western weaponry, to supplying huge amounts of ordnance.
What is facing Putin is the shadow of 1990. If regions far from Moscow declare independence it will trigger a domino effect. It is not 80 years ago. People have the internet and are far better informed now. They can see this is nothing more than a power grab to rally the faithful (useful idiots) and offer a distraction.
Russia has seen a massive asset stripping of its resources by the 'oligarchs' State owned enterprises and land were misappropriated (stolen) on a massive scale. But not as discreet as in the UK where those helping themselves had the good sense to let a few crumbs fall from the table, and also ensure the wealth was spread amongst a wider number.
The time of reckoning looks to be coming, and as already been seen those ill gotten gains can no longer be hidden in the west. |
Directly and militarily involving NATO, rather than just training and supply.
'People have the internet and are far better informed now. They can see this is nothing more than a power grab to rally the faithful (useful idiots) and offer a distraction.' - I very much doubt that. In a country where much of the media is state owned and directed, with all dissenting voices legally muzzled, where most of the population gains its information from TV, attitudes are going to be far from enlightened. Even among the young.
That's true even in the supposedly more open West. | |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:17 - Nov 15 with 2711 views | StokieBlue |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 22:21 - Nov 15 by Guthrum |
He still thinks he can win. It's an article of faith with Russian ultra-nationalists that their populace can out-suffer anyone else (and are happy to do so)*. The soft Westerners will fold when the cold weather hits. He just has to keep going.
* Something which goes back to Tsarist times. |
Unfortunately for them they are fighting people used to the cold weather, whenever they do that it doesn't go that well for them (see Finland for example).
SB |  | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:25 - Nov 15 with 2675 views | HARRY10 |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:11 - Nov 15 by Guthrum |
Directly and militarily involving NATO, rather than just training and supply.
'People have the internet and are far better informed now. They can see this is nothing more than a power grab to rally the faithful (useful idiots) and offer a distraction.' - I very much doubt that. In a country where much of the media is state owned and directed, with all dissenting voices legally muzzled, where most of the population gains its information from TV, attitudes are going to be far from enlightened. Even among the young.
That's true even in the supposedly more open West. |
Given how much damage to Russia forces has been caused by western missiles, drones etc there is no need for 'direct' involvement. It has not been any shortage of Ukrainian troops, so why would NATO use them in Ukraine ?
Eighty years ago Russians had access to the radio and the printed media. Easy to control. Whereas now it is the internet. Those watching state controlled TV would not be influenced by another other source. Much as with the UK, where cranks seek out the lies they need elsewhere when usual sources to do not pander to that need. They are a decreasing minority.
There is plenty of evidence that the state controlled media is not winning. Witness the huge number fleeing abroad to avoid conscription. The protests in the street. Much as with Iran where the control is even more entrenched and brutal in its enforcement.
As the number killed rises, and the shortages similarly rise then so will the discontent. People will tolerate a lot if they feel in is worth it. UK in WW2, but Putins talk of 'a glorious fight against the forces of fascism' ring hollow.
The cracks are already appearing | | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:29 - Nov 15 with 2678 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 22:07 - Nov 15 by HARRY10 |
The problem for Russia is time is running out - or more importantly the ability to make good losses is.
It does not have the capacity to match the West in production, and so in a war of attrition it will lose. Even a nuclear strike is a step into the unknown as it cannot be certain that the West does not have the capability of destroying any nuclear missiles launched. Until that possibility is tested then Russia still carries a threat, of some kind.
What we are now seeing is outdated cold war stuff being dragged out which are about as useful as a 1915 bi-plane in the age of the jet fighter. They can be destroyed from miles away without any idea what hit them, or that they have been hit....crew dead, tank destroyed.
The Russians now have a natural barrier, the Dniper river, which should act to keep both sides apart for the winter, but what then as far as the Russians are concerned ? Continue to lob missiles into Ukraine, in the vague hope Ukraine will capitulate ?
De Gaulle said 'no nation has friends, only interests'
It will benefit China and India to have a weakened Russia. And Russia will have to retain a strong enough force to ensure internal control, which I suspect is now running close to that need |
Russia may have a natural barrier in the vicinity of Kherson but there is nothing to stop Ukranian forces further north from advancing down the eastern side of the Dniper. |  |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 00:40 - Nov 16 with 2625 views | Churchman |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:17 - Nov 15 by StokieBlue |
Unfortunately for them they are fighting people used to the cold weather, whenever they do that it doesn't go that well for them (see Finland for example).
SB |
You are right. Interestingly, as he supplements numbers with I’ll trained conscripts who don’t even know when to duck, sweeping of the gaols, mercenaries etc the cold and miserable conditions may well debilitate them far quicker than the Ukrainians who from the outside seem better motivated and in many cases better trained.
The Winter War in Finland is a great example. USSR eventually overcame them with weight of numbers, but with a tiny but well trained Army the Finns killed them in their 1000s - those that didn’t freeze to death through poor kit, supplies and lack of training. |  | | |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 06:34 - Nov 16 with 2574 views | WeWereZombies |
Or perhaps increase air defence systems to Poland ?
'The Associated Press news agency is quoting three US officials as saying a preliminary assessment suggests the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.
The officials, who are not authorised to discuss the matter publicly, spoke to AP on the condition of anonymity.
Earlier on Tuesday President Biden said it was "unlikely" the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia.'
This was at 05:46 on the BBC's live news feed on the matter -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855
I put my washing machine on at 05:59 and am hopeful that it will still be worth emptying it and hanging the washing out in a couple of hours (good drying forecast for today, I suppose the silver lining to a mushroom cloud would be that if there is a nuclear holocaust later on then the drying would be remarkably quick...) |  |
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| [Redacted] on 06:51 - Nov 16 with 2550 views | victorywilhappen |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 06:34 - Nov 16 by WeWereZombies |
Or perhaps increase air defence systems to Poland ?
'The Associated Press news agency is quoting three US officials as saying a preliminary assessment suggests the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.
The officials, who are not authorised to discuss the matter publicly, spoke to AP on the condition of anonymity.
Earlier on Tuesday President Biden said it was "unlikely" the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia.'
This was at 05:46 on the BBC's live news feed on the matter -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855
I put my washing machine on at 05:59 and am hopeful that it will still be worth emptying it and hanging the washing out in a couple of hours (good drying forecast for today, I suppose the silver lining to a mushroom cloud would be that if there is a nuclear holocaust later on then the drying would be remarkably quick...) |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 07:14 - Nov 16 with 2520 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Better edit the op! | |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 08:35 - Nov 16 with 2437 views | Guthrum |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 23:25 - Nov 15 by HARRY10 |
Given how much damage to Russia forces has been caused by western missiles, drones etc there is no need for 'direct' involvement. It has not been any shortage of Ukrainian troops, so why would NATO use them in Ukraine ?
Eighty years ago Russians had access to the radio and the printed media. Easy to control. Whereas now it is the internet. Those watching state controlled TV would not be influenced by another other source. Much as with the UK, where cranks seek out the lies they need elsewhere when usual sources to do not pander to that need. They are a decreasing minority.
There is plenty of evidence that the state controlled media is not winning. Witness the huge number fleeing abroad to avoid conscription. The protests in the street. Much as with Iran where the control is even more entrenched and brutal in its enforcement.
As the number killed rises, and the shortages similarly rise then so will the discontent. People will tolerate a lot if they feel in is worth it. UK in WW2, but Putins talk of 'a glorious fight against the forces of fascism' ring hollow.
The cracks are already appearing |
Russia has been very careful in mostly limiting military call-ups to remote, rural and ethnic minority regions of the country. The big, more comopolitan cities of Moscow and St Petersburg have been shielded, to an extent. The people most likely to threaten the government are being protected. Possibly at the risk of increased provincial unrest/separatism.
Fleeing to avoid being drafted into the army is not the same as protesting overall government policy. It's simply a desire for self-preservation. The street protests, while brave and remarkable, are really at a pretty low level. Certainly not on the level of those in Iran.
It is true that losses in Afghanistan was one of the things which worked to bring down the USSR. But it was a process which took many years. | |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 09:10 - Nov 16 with 2389 views | Churchman |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 08:35 - Nov 16 by Guthrum |
Russia has been very careful in mostly limiting military call-ups to remote, rural and ethnic minority regions of the country. The big, more comopolitan cities of Moscow and St Petersburg have been shielded, to an extent. The people most likely to threaten the government are being protected. Possibly at the risk of increased provincial unrest/separatism.
Fleeing to avoid being drafted into the army is not the same as protesting overall government policy. It's simply a desire for self-preservation. The street protests, while brave and remarkable, are really at a pretty low level. Certainly not on the level of those in Iran.
It is true that losses in Afghanistan was one of the things which worked to bring down the USSR. But it was a process which took many years. |
You are right. Despite the chaotic nature of it, Putin has been quite selective on where the cannon fodder comes from. Russia really does appear to be countries within countries and peoples ‘graded’ accordingly.
In WW2 Stalin loathed the people of Leningrad and accordingly made no real effort to relieve the siege. As far as he was concerned, it tied up German forces and got rid of a load of people he had no time for.
Even more extreme was encouraging the Warsaw uprising on a promise the Russian army would come to the rescue then leaving them to it. Let them kill each other. I don’t think in terms of using people up Putin is a lot different. The more Russians that die, the greater the cause and the better it is.
This is an alien approach to western eyes, particularly UK and US that took a deliberate policy approach after WW1 to fight a mechanised war where possible in preference to human flesh.
Putin’s selectiveness over recruitment smells of fear. [Post edited 16 Nov 2022 9:14]
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| Poland hit by missile... on 10:19 - Nov 16 with 2332 views | Darth_Koont |
On a side note, re: the missile and the media reporting.
I see that AP are leading with “Russian-made missile” now. I wonder if that was the initial mistake made when reporting from this US Intelligence official. It wasn’t a “Russian missile” in the sense they took it.
Mistakes will happen. But seeing that and the chaotic mess of reports that emerged as a result, including some big statements by governments who took the reports at face value, shows that news organisations need to rein this stuff in and certainly not build up a consensus in a live situation where facts need to be verified. Especially when nuclear war is on the table.
I’d rather not know what is going on in a rolling news situation than be comforted with the illusion of knowledge. Because in the end it was the attempts to report and comment that caused the most anxiety. And you saw from the BBC’s own feed that they didn’t really know what was going on.
We still don’t know for sure, of course. But we can’t let narratives take off in this way to fill the gaps in our knowledge. I know that’s how news works and the pressure to get clicks and viewers is fierce. But hopefully a bit of a wake up call nevertheless. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 12:43 - Nov 16 with 2235 views | victorywilhappen |
| Poland hit by missile... on 10:19 - Nov 16 by Darth_Koont |
On a side note, re: the missile and the media reporting.
I see that AP are leading with “Russian-made missile” now. I wonder if that was the initial mistake made when reporting from this US Intelligence official. It wasn’t a “Russian missile” in the sense they took it.
Mistakes will happen. But seeing that and the chaotic mess of reports that emerged as a result, including some big statements by governments who took the reports at face value, shows that news organisations need to rein this stuff in and certainly not build up a consensus in a live situation where facts need to be verified. Especially when nuclear war is on the table.
I’d rather not know what is going on in a rolling news situation than be comforted with the illusion of knowledge. Because in the end it was the attempts to report and comment that caused the most anxiety. And you saw from the BBC’s own feed that they didn’t really know what was going on.
We still don’t know for sure, of course. But we can’t let narratives take off in this way to fill the gaps in our knowledge. I know that’s how news works and the pressure to get clicks and viewers is fierce. But hopefully a bit of a wake up call nevertheless. |
[Redacted] | | | |
| Poland hit by missile... on 13:36 - Nov 16 with 2150 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
Of course he wants to broaden the conflict as he wants Poland and NATO to be involved in the war. He told the world on the social media that it was the Russian missile before any investigation started. He knew it right away. Interesting, eh? Pure genius. |  | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 13:37 - Nov 16 with 2144 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 22:21 - Nov 15 by Guthrum |
He still thinks he can win. It's an article of faith with Russian ultra-nationalists that their populace can out-suffer anyone else (and are happy to do so)*. The soft Westerners will fold when the cold weather hits. He just has to keep going.
* Something which goes back to Tsarist times. |
“ He still thinks he can win.”
Hard to see any outcome he can sell as a win. Even if he was militarily successful, which seems unlikely, he’s made Russia a pariah state plastered in crippling sanctions along with Cuba, North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela.
I mean what a list to be on… | | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 13:46 - Nov 16 with 2124 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 20:21 - Nov 15 by Guthrum |
Not sure there's much cause for nervousness. There's no way the Russians would have been deliberately firing missiles at an obscure Polish border village. It's not a worthwhile target considering the massive repercussions of doing so. |
Bang on. Putin's concern and obsession has been Ukraine. The war isn't going as he would have liked to. The Russian army was forced to leave the Kherson area so it's all about Ukraine for him so why would he deliberately target the NATO country then? It doesn't add up at all
Pentagon were first to come out with these news about the explosion. They knew it quicker than anyone in Poland. Just Pentagon. Quite interesting. | | | |
| Poland hit by missile... on 13:47 - Nov 16 with 2122 views | Darth_Koont |
| Poland hit by missile... on 13:36 - Nov 16 by Mach_foreignBlue |
Of course he wants to broaden the conflict as he wants Poland and NATO to be involved in the war. He told the world on the social media that it was the Russian missile before any investigation started. He knew it right away. Interesting, eh? Pure genius. |
If he has tried to escalate it himself with that statement you can at least understand his desperation.
These proxy wars can go on and on and on. And it's the Ukrainians that suffer most. | |
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 13:50 - Nov 16 with 2111 views | Darth_Koont |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 13:46 - Nov 16 by Mach_foreignBlue |
Bang on. Putin's concern and obsession has been Ukraine. The war isn't going as he would have liked to. The Russian army was forced to leave the Kherson area so it's all about Ukraine for him so why would he deliberately target the NATO country then? It doesn't add up at all
Pentagon were first to come out with these news about the explosion. They knew it quicker than anyone in Poland. Just Pentagon. Quite interesting. |
That would be from US aerial, radar and comms surveillance though wouldn't it? | |
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| Poland hit by missile... on 13:56 - Nov 16 with 2081 views | DJR |
Is it only me but I was a little disconcerted to wake up and see several paper headlines about Russian bombs hitting Poland when at the same time the BBC was reporting Biden thought Russian involvement was unlikely? It has subsequently emerged that it was a Ukrainian missile.
Ukraine's cause is a just cause, and deserves our full support, but I don't think it means we should be reverting to the type of things that Putin would be getting up to. After all, aren't we fighting for western values where the type of propaganda that Putin churns out just doesn't happen. As it turns out, today's headlines look like propaganda whereas Russian denials turn out to be true.
It has been clear that journalistic standards have slipped during the war with things reported as fact without proper verification, but today's example is the worse yet. Maybe this a feature of all wars where we have an interest. But I still have misgivings about it. [Post edited 16 Nov 2022 13:58]
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| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 14:03 - Nov 16 with 2059 views | Mach_foreignBlue |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 13:50 - Nov 16 by Darth_Koont |
That would be from US aerial, radar and comms surveillance though wouldn't it? |
Of course as there are thousands of US soldiers based in Poland.
And as history shows they always put their noses in when it comes to the military conflicts. | | | |
| Poland hit by missile... on 14:48 - Nov 16 with 2012 views | Eireannach_gorm |
It is in Ukraine's interest to push this as they will gain more military support.
They have been crying out for more and better air defence and this is the most likely outcome of this particular incident. Poland will justifiably call in NATO on this and the result will be better air defence for Ukraine. |  | | |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 15:02 - Nov 16 with 1998 views | HARRY10 |
| Poland hit by Russian missiles... on 09:10 - Nov 16 by Churchman |
You are right. Despite the chaotic nature of it, Putin has been quite selective on where the cannon fodder comes from. Russia really does appear to be countries within countries and peoples ‘graded’ accordingly.
In WW2 Stalin loathed the people of Leningrad and accordingly made no real effort to relieve the siege. As far as he was concerned, it tied up German forces and got rid of a load of people he had no time for.
Even more extreme was encouraging the Warsaw uprising on a promise the Russian army would come to the rescue then leaving them to it. Let them kill each other. I don’t think in terms of using people up Putin is a lot different. The more Russians that die, the greater the cause and the better it is.
This is an alien approach to western eyes, particularly UK and US that took a deliberate policy approach after WW1 to fight a mechanised war where possible in preference to human flesh.
Putin’s selectiveness over recruitment smells of fear. [Post edited 16 Nov 2022 9:14]
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there's no evidence that Russians are not being called up, whereas those from the regions aree. Thats why Russians in their tgousands have been fleeing over the border.
That action will have not happened in isolation. Family, friends, neighbours and those in their workplace will be aware.... and will talk. What the numbers are can only be a very rough guess *, but they are high enough to have an impact on Russian society, more so given they are the better paid they have the money to flee.
However, this war is not necessarily about number of soldiers. Large numbers of Russian tanks and artillery have been destroyed by an unseen enemy (drones, HIMAS etc).
The retreat of Russians from K was not a result of street to street fighting but that their supply line s were being destroyed. Normandy 1944 showed that who controlled the air controlled the battle field. The yanks (especially) would deal with a German strong points by sitting tight and calling up airstrikes (yabos).
Today, that is far more sophisticated with precision strikes, whereas the Russians seem more dependent upon hitting already known targets. Even were it to be a war of attrition Russia is doomed to lose - Russia 145m v NATO 949m. Even when you factor in Belarus and Ukraine it is is 9m v 40m. The capacity of NATO, as with the allies in WW1/WW2, dwarfs that of Russia.
And just as then things had become desperate on the home front, something not really felt on the NATO side bar increased energy/food prices. Even then it is manageable.
As well as suffering the consequences of sanctions (WW1/WW2 blockade) There is the growing awareness in Russia that this is not 'an heroic struggle against the repressive forces of fascism' and that any death of Russians soldiers is a wasteful and futile loss.
You do not win wars that way (see Vietnam).
* https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-many-russians-have-fled/ | | | |
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