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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... 13:26 - Mar 15 with 1806 viewsGavTWTD

To come up with one (or more) deal with the EU (such as Canada+++ or whatever), and decide on the deal we want?

If our politicians/parties can't be trusted to have a free vote, then there should be another referendum WITHOUT REMAIN AS AN OPTION. People say we shouldn't have another referendum, but shirley that depends on the question asked/votable answers? If it's purely "we've decided to leave, we now must choose how we leave".

The initial question was far too vague. The PM then had these red lines that she derived from the in/out question alone (no idea how she got them) and we're stuck in this impasse.

Apologies for another brexit thread.

Edit, sorry I mean without REMAIN as an option. Doh

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:11 - Mar 15 with 372 viewshomer_123

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:02 - Mar 15 by Darth_Koont

Agreed. It shows the limitations of our political system when it not only can't deal with reality but it can't even talk about it.

Reality, and the only real choice available, is staring everyone in the face.


Moreover, doesn't it merely show the decision is simply 'too' complex.

We can judge the relevant benefits of staying in the EU compared to costs etc. but what no one can say with any certainty is what things will look like in 25 years time - there is siply no reliable way of saying we would be better off in or out of the EU.

No economist can give you a definite accurate answer - one only needs to look at any long term forecasts to very quickly see how unreliable they are.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:12 - Mar 15 with 368 viewspickles110564

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 13:55 - Mar 15 by dryas

No. What needs to happen is that politicians and the media are honest with the electorate. There is no point having Canada+++ or Norway or Common Market 2.0. Either stay in the EU and have all the benefits and be part of the decision making process or leave and find our own way in the world. Remaining HAS to stay as an option in a referendum.

Brave politicians would actually be saying something like: you know what, a decision of this magnitude should never have been made in a referendum or, if it was going to be should have been using a super majority. We have tried to put into action a response to the ADVISORY referendum but it's clear it isn't in your best interests and agreement cannot be reached. Therefore we advise the people we remain in the EU.


What you are saying is a bunch of remain MP's negotiated on a deal they did not want and went for the worst possible deal so they get their way and remain.
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:14 - Mar 15 with 356 viewsHerbivore

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:12 - Mar 15 by pickles110564

What you are saying is a bunch of remain MP's negotiated on a deal they did not want and went for the worst possible deal so they get their way and remain.


Hahaha hahaha!

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:15 - Mar 15 with 355 viewsNo9

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:12 - Mar 15 by pickles110564

What you are saying is a bunch of remain MP's negotiated on a deal they did not want and went for the worst possible deal so they get their way and remain.


Who were they then?
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:15 - Mar 15 with 347 viewsDarth_Koont

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:11 - Mar 15 by homer_123

Moreover, doesn't it merely show the decision is simply 'too' complex.

We can judge the relevant benefits of staying in the EU compared to costs etc. but what no one can say with any certainty is what things will look like in 25 years time - there is siply no reliable way of saying we would be better off in or out of the EU.

No economist can give you a definite accurate answer - one only needs to look at any long term forecasts to very quickly see how unreliable they are.


Of course, but it's not guesswork in the short- to mid-term to say that leaving is an awful idea. So the onus is on people presenting the picture of what can reasonably be expected to be the future upside. That picture isn't there, just a loose narrative.
[Post edited 15 Mar 14:19]
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:22 - Mar 15 with 339 viewsHerbivore

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:11 - Mar 15 by homer_123

Moreover, doesn't it merely show the decision is simply 'too' complex.

We can judge the relevant benefits of staying in the EU compared to costs etc. but what no one can say with any certainty is what things will look like in 25 years time - there is siply no reliable way of saying we would be better off in or out of the EU.

No economist can give you a definite accurate answer - one only needs to look at any long term forecasts to very quickly see how unreliable they are.


That's a false equivalence though. Other than a bland point about not being able to see into the future there are many more knowns about remaining members of the EU than there are about leaving. And whilst economic forecasts are not always hugely reliable when they all predict the same thing to varying degrees you have to give it some credibility. The alternative is to just embrace ignorance and stumble in any old direction.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:24 - Mar 15 with 332 viewsNo9

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 13:33 - Mar 15 by Pinewoodblue

You need to have a choice to put to the public before you can call a referendum. The choice has to be accept this (whatever is negotiated) or leave. Votes need to be counted on a constituency basis with each MP mandated to accept the vote of their constituents.


No choice then?
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:25 - Mar 15 with 329 viewsHerbivore

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:24 - Mar 15 by No9

No choice then?


The two options are leave or leave apparently.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:34 - Mar 15 with 323 viewsDarth_Koont

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:22 - Mar 15 by Herbivore

That's a false equivalence though. Other than a bland point about not being able to see into the future there are many more knowns about remaining members of the EU than there are about leaving. And whilst economic forecasts are not always hugely reliable when they all predict the same thing to varying degrees you have to give it some credibility. The alternative is to just embrace ignorance and stumble in any old direction.


Indeed. The key aspect of remaining in the EU compared to leaving and seeing how that works out is that the risks and uncertainties of one are known and currently incorporated into all UK business models. In the other there's just a black hole.

Risk and uncertainty are hard values in business. So, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of long-term damage to our economy to exit without a scooby just armed with optimism. Leaving would increase risk exposure and reduce investment dramatically as it has done even as we prepare for a transition period let alone properly leaving.
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:48 - Mar 15 with 316 viewshomer_123

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:22 - Mar 15 by Herbivore

That's a false equivalence though. Other than a bland point about not being able to see into the future there are many more knowns about remaining members of the EU than there are about leaving. And whilst economic forecasts are not always hugely reliable when they all predict the same thing to varying degrees you have to give it some credibility. The alternative is to just embrace ignorance and stumble in any old direction.


Herbs - it's not false equivalence. For that to be the case, you are assuming that the knowns about being with the EU are purely positive. Even if they are knowns, they can have a positive, negative or neutral effect on how the EU and, we within it, pan out.

Whether we are within or outside of the EU - it is simply not possible to give any kind of accurate long term forecast. That's a simple fact, a reality that you can't hide from.

I'll give you one really simple case in point. The majority of experts were adamant that should the UK vote to leave the EU - it would be economic suicide. Note, that this was before we had voted - the public were told in no uncertain terms there would be grave consequences for even voting to leave, let alone leaving. That's a relative short term forecast that turned out to be wholly inaccurate.

I'll not even get into the wider context of the variances of those long term forecasts that you are wanting to 'generalise' from.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:51 - Mar 15 with 310 viewshomer_123

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:15 - Mar 15 by Darth_Koont

Of course, but it's not guesswork in the short- to mid-term to say that leaving is an awful idea. So the onus is on people presenting the picture of what can reasonably be expected to be the future upside. That picture isn't there, just a loose narrative.
[Post edited 15 Mar 14:19]


https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-scienc

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable

http://theconversation.com/economic-forecasting-why-it-matters-and-why-its-so-of

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-economists-cant-forecast/2017/03/08/

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:54 - Mar 15 with 303 viewsNo9

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:34 - Mar 15 by Darth_Koont

Indeed. The key aspect of remaining in the EU compared to leaving and seeing how that works out is that the risks and uncertainties of one are known and currently incorporated into all UK business models. In the other there's just a black hole.

Risk and uncertainty are hard values in business. So, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of long-term damage to our economy to exit without a scooby just armed with optimism. Leaving would increase risk exposure and reduce investment dramatically as it has done even as we prepare for a transition period let alone properly leaving.


If this was a business decision it would be a non starter
& if you kept taking it back like this you would get the sack.

The real serious issue here is that government have probably been made aware of even more risks than have got out. That much is suggested by the CBI, the fact that some of the brexiters have made a point of talking down the CBI concerns makes it an even bigger challenge.

& now the people who have created this debacle want to use the provisions in the 'Agreement' to lead us down an even more dubious route - to what?

What price a Risk register on this lot?
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:54 - Mar 15 with 308 viewshomer_123

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:34 - Mar 15 by Darth_Koont

Indeed. The key aspect of remaining in the EU compared to leaving and seeing how that works out is that the risks and uncertainties of one are known and currently incorporated into all UK business models. In the other there's just a black hole.

Risk and uncertainty are hard values in business. So, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy of long-term damage to our economy to exit without a scooby just armed with optimism. Leaving would increase risk exposure and reduce investment dramatically as it has done even as we prepare for a transition period let alone properly leaving.


"The key aspect of remaining in the EU compared to leaving and seeing how that works out is that the risks and uncertainties of one are known and currently incorporated into all UK business models"

They might well be knows and they well be factored for but they are not reliably factored for Herbs - which you seem to be misunderstanding.

Take JLR - even when evidence (not forecasts) was seen of a major economic downturn from China (which should have been factored as you suggest above) they haven't been able to cope, along with many other car manufactures relying on China. It's also one of the major reasons why Germany is struggling right now, they have over relied on China.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:57 - Mar 15 with 298 viewsDarth_Koont

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:48 - Mar 15 by homer_123

Herbs - it's not false equivalence. For that to be the case, you are assuming that the knowns about being with the EU are purely positive. Even if they are knowns, they can have a positive, negative or neutral effect on how the EU and, we within it, pan out.

Whether we are within or outside of the EU - it is simply not possible to give any kind of accurate long term forecast. That's a simple fact, a reality that you can't hide from.

I'll give you one really simple case in point. The majority of experts were adamant that should the UK vote to leave the EU - it would be economic suicide. Note, that this was before we had voted - the public were told in no uncertain terms there would be grave consequences for even voting to leave, let alone leaving. That's a relative short term forecast that turned out to be wholly inaccurate.

I'll not even get into the wider context of the variances of those long term forecasts that you are wanting to 'generalise' from.


If you mean the fall of the pound and the 50 billion QE that was put in then I'd say those are grave consequences for an economy that was otherwise strong and growing. That's even with the underlying growth being stronger than the Treasury figures had allowed for.

We also haven't left yet and businesses are leaving and/or cutting investment dramatically. Again further grave consequences.

These are all negatives we won't recover until the long term kicks in and even then it's debatable if we'd have been better off as part of the EU, especially depending on how the world then looks. Rees-Mogg and his 50-year window show how little evidence and even confidence there is for a genuine upside any time soon.
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 15:03 - Mar 15 with 293 viewsNo9

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:54 - Mar 15 by homer_123

"The key aspect of remaining in the EU compared to leaving and seeing how that works out is that the risks and uncertainties of one are known and currently incorporated into all UK business models"

They might well be knows and they well be factored for but they are not reliably factored for Herbs - which you seem to be misunderstanding.

Take JLR - even when evidence (not forecasts) was seen of a major economic downturn from China (which should have been factored as you suggest above) they haven't been able to cope, along with many other car manufactures relying on China. It's also one of the major reasons why Germany is struggling right now, they have over relied on China.


Germany is manufacturing a lot of cars in China & the F.E.
No doubt to ensure they get low or zero tariff access.
Without knowing how many components are made in Germany it is difficult to gauge the effect of the F.E. fall is on Germany. What is probably more of an issue is the difficulties Trump is creatign for the German manufacturers.
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 15:09 - Mar 15 with 289 viewsSwansea_Blue

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:48 - Mar 15 by homer_123

Herbs - it's not false equivalence. For that to be the case, you are assuming that the knowns about being with the EU are purely positive. Even if they are knowns, they can have a positive, negative or neutral effect on how the EU and, we within it, pan out.

Whether we are within or outside of the EU - it is simply not possible to give any kind of accurate long term forecast. That's a simple fact, a reality that you can't hide from.

I'll give you one really simple case in point. The majority of experts were adamant that should the UK vote to leave the EU - it would be economic suicide. Note, that this was before we had voted - the public were told in no uncertain terms there would be grave consequences for even voting to leave, let alone leaving. That's a relative short term forecast that turned out to be wholly inaccurate.

I'll not even get into the wider context of the variances of those long term forecasts that you are wanting to 'generalise' from.


Accurate long-term forecasts aren't possible, but we can look at how accurate forecasts have been over the last couple of years. Apparently, and contrary to popular Brexiteer opinion, short-term forecasts turned out to be fairly accurate and in the right direction of travel. Those with a political bias less so (e.g. the Treasury's forecast overly pessimistic) and the main pro-Brexit forecast wildly inaccurate (biggest margin of error and in the wrong direction - erroneously optimistic). There's a piece about it in yesterday's FT - https://www.ft.com/content/534e108a-4651-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3 (paywall).

It's paywalled, so there's some publicly available info here from it:

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 15:16 - Mar 15 with 277 viewsLesta_Tractor

We should invade the Republic of Ireland, that would solve the hard border issue.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 15:20 - Mar 15 with 268 viewsNo9

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 15:09 - Mar 15 by Swansea_Blue

Accurate long-term forecasts aren't possible, but we can look at how accurate forecasts have been over the last couple of years. Apparently, and contrary to popular Brexiteer opinion, short-term forecasts turned out to be fairly accurate and in the right direction of travel. Those with a political bias less so (e.g. the Treasury's forecast overly pessimistic) and the main pro-Brexit forecast wildly inaccurate (biggest margin of error and in the wrong direction - erroneously optimistic). There's a piece about it in yesterday's FT - https://www.ft.com/content/534e108a-4651-11e9-b168-96a37d002cd3 (paywall).

It's paywalled, so there's some publicly available info here from it:


That's a good piece

Thanks
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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 16:06 - Mar 15 with 244 viewsHerbivore

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:48 - Mar 15 by homer_123

Herbs - it's not false equivalence. For that to be the case, you are assuming that the knowns about being with the EU are purely positive. Even if they are knowns, they can have a positive, negative or neutral effect on how the EU and, we within it, pan out.

Whether we are within or outside of the EU - it is simply not possible to give any kind of accurate long term forecast. That's a simple fact, a reality that you can't hide from.

I'll give you one really simple case in point. The majority of experts were adamant that should the UK vote to leave the EU - it would be economic suicide. Note, that this was before we had voted - the public were told in no uncertain terms there would be grave consequences for even voting to leave, let alone leaving. That's a relative short term forecast that turned out to be wholly inaccurate.

I'll not even get into the wider context of the variances of those long term forecasts that you are wanting to 'generalise' from.


Wholly inaccurate? Whilst we weren't plunged into a recession, significant quantitative easing took place in order to help ensure we didn't. The pound dropped in value significantly and the economy has grown more slowly than it would have had we not voted leave. So the issue there is one of magnitude rather than accuracy. They were right that a leave vote would have negative consequences but the scale of them was off, though partly that's down to measures taken to try to ease the impact.

The rest of your post is just you repeating yourself. I simply don't agree that remaining and leaving represent equal unknowns other than in the limited and bland sense that you can't predict the future. And if that's your point then a vote to replace parliament with a committee of moths making decisions by flying towards a particular light bulb is also equivalent to a vote to stay or leave.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:25 - Mar 15 with 221 viewsJonnosdreadlocks

Break up the disunited Kingdom. Sorts out whinging Scots and DUP and Irish Nats as there would be no more Britain or UK.
Independent Scotland join EU, Independent NI join EU (or a United Ireland), Independent Wales ( Leave EU and UK), Independent England (Leave EU and UK). Each part of UK gets what they voted for. Could have some kind of Nordic Council between the home nations similar to the Scandanavian countries but everyone has to stand on their own two feet.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:42 - Mar 15 with 212 viewsLord_Lucan

It’s simple Gav.

As much as I want to stay and embrace my fellow European brothers I have to admit I have grown to despise the sneaky EU parliament.

I would leave tomorrow on WTO rules and get my secretary to fling an email to Juncker offering the EU a free trade deal with us and inform him that they have 7 days to take us up on our offer.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:44 - Mar 15 with 204 viewsJ2BLUE

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:25 - Mar 15 by Jonnosdreadlocks

Break up the disunited Kingdom. Sorts out whinging Scots and DUP and Irish Nats as there would be no more Britain or UK.
Independent Scotland join EU, Independent NI join EU (or a United Ireland), Independent Wales ( Leave EU and UK), Independent England (Leave EU and UK). Each part of UK gets what they voted for. Could have some kind of Nordic Council between the home nations similar to the Scandanavian countries but everyone has to stand on their own two feet.


What a fantastic idea. We're finding out that we're not too great on our own so the ideal solution is to become even smaller.

Brilliant.

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:53 - Mar 15 with 204 viewsEwan_Oozami

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 13:33 - Mar 15 by Pinewoodblue

You need to have a choice to put to the public before you can call a referendum. The choice has to be accept this (whatever is negotiated) or leave. Votes need to be counted on a constituency basis with each MP mandated to accept the vote of their constituents.


Can't have a constituency basis as that will skew the result as FPTP does

For example:

Constituency A - 100,000 people - 60,000 vote Negotiated deal, 30,000 vote No deal
Result: MP must support negotiated deal
Constituency B - 95,000 people - 25,000 vote Negotiated deal, 60,000 vote No deal
Result: MP must support No deal
50/50 split of MPs but across the two constituencies, No Deal was more popular (90,000 No Deal vs 85,000 Negotiated Deal)
If this were repeated across all the constituencies the final result (ie,Negotiated Deal MPs vs No Deal MPs) will not reflect the popular vote - that would be a huge bone of contention whatever the outcome :-)

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 20:54 - Mar 15 with 198 viewsRyorry

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 13:55 - Mar 15 by dryas

No. What needs to happen is that politicians and the media are honest with the electorate. There is no point having Canada+++ or Norway or Common Market 2.0. Either stay in the EU and have all the benefits and be part of the decision making process or leave and find our own way in the world. Remaining HAS to stay as an option in a referendum.

Brave politicians would actually be saying something like: you know what, a decision of this magnitude should never have been made in a referendum or, if it was going to be should have been using a super majority. We have tried to put into action a response to the ADVISORY referendum but it's clear it isn't in your best interests and agreement cannot be reached. Therefore we advise the people we remain in the EU.


Halle-feckin-lujah

Wish you were PM (tho you probably don't - well apart from the salary anyway!)

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Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 21:00 - Mar 15 with 189 viewsRyorry

Isn't the solution to the brexit problem... on 14:54 - Mar 15 by No9

If this was a business decision it would be a non starter
& if you kept taking it back like this you would get the sack.

The real serious issue here is that government have probably been made aware of even more risks than have got out. That much is suggested by the CBI, the fact that some of the brexiters have made a point of talking down the CBI concerns makes it an even bigger challenge.

& now the people who have created this debacle want to use the provisions in the 'Agreement' to lead us down an even more dubious route - to what?

What price a Risk register on this lot?


Risks for our defence?

I can imagine the sheer unpredictability of Trump also wasn't factored in originally.

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